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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
PhilippinoBob

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03/05/2013 07:15 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Now you know why DHS is buying ammo by millions, because this will have consequences!
 Quoting: PhilippinoBob

I'm sorry but that really doesn't make sense. I don't think there's going to be massive civil unrest because Mars took a whack.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


It's GLP, no-one said it has to make sense! :p
 Quoting: Lime Flavoured Redux


It makes sense if you are a Stock Market technical analyst.
I have been looking for this event since 2006.
At that time I already knew that something was not right.
My first confirmation came in 2009 and the next one should be in 2015. If it comes through, all the hell will break loose soon after that... in 2016.
But of course, this is GLP and nobody is credible here.
However, we are by far more honest than FOX or CNN.
PhilippinoBob
FreakObserver

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03/05/2013 07:33 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
Wispa

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03/05/2013 07:44 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
 Quoting: FreakObserver


Huh ?

No one has said anything with certainty, infact Astro has mentioned several times this is an uncertainty.
FreakObserver

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03/05/2013 08:11 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
 Quoting: FreakObserver


Huh ?

No one has said anything with certainty, infact Astro has mentioned several times this is an uncertainty.
 Quoting: Wispa


Not sure what your quarrel is.

We are in agreement then...over the uncertainty.
Anonymous Coward
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03/05/2013 08:13 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
So if this comet misses and just continues its orbit will there be enough data to say when it will be back it 100 or 200 years. Give or take a few years. If that could be done that is pretty impressive.
phoomp

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03/05/2013 08:14 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
If the Comet hits Mars, it will look like Super Nova right inside of our Solar system.
Can you imagine,... a god-damn Super Nova!?
Now you know why DHS is buying ammo by millions, because this will have consequences!
 Quoting: PhilippinoBob

*Looking* like a super nova and *being* a super nova are two EXTREMELY different things.
phoomp

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03/05/2013 08:19 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
 Quoting: FreakObserver

Everyone is currently saying that there *is no* certainly yet. The only ones trying to say there's any certainly here are the conspiracy theorists who are certain that it'll hit and are certain that it'll either destroy Mars or rain doom down on Earth ... probably both.
Anonymous Coward
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03/05/2013 08:23 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
 Quoting: FreakObserver

Everyone is currently saying that there *is no* certainly yet. The only ones trying to say there's any certainly here are the conspiracy theorists who are certain that it'll hit and are certain that it'll either destroy Mars or rain doom down on Earth ... probably both.
 Quoting: phoomp


these are the same people who said with certainty that the world would end on 12-21, and that niburu was coming. I like the uncertainty keeps you on the edge of your seat and fun to see the process play out. This is a learning experience.
phoomp

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03/05/2013 08:26 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
 Quoting: FreakObserver

Everyone is currently saying that there *is no* certainly yet. The only ones trying to say there's any certainly here are the conspiracy theorists who are certain that it'll hit and are certain that it'll either destroy Mars or rain doom down on Earth ... probably both.
 Quoting: phoomp


these are the same people who said with certainty that the world would end on 12-21, and that niburu was coming. I like the uncertainty keeps you on the edge of your seat and fun to see the process play out. This is a learning experience.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26926613

Exactly. The credibility and success ratio of the DOOM conspiracy theorists are rather low.
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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03/05/2013 08:37 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
 Quoting: FreakObserver


Huh ?

No one has said anything with certainty, infact Astro has mentioned several times this is an uncertainty.
 Quoting: Wispa


Not sure what your quarrel is.

We are in agreement then...over the uncertainty.
 Quoting: FreakObserver

The uncertainty is not in whether it will hit earth, it's in whether or not it will hit mars. The unstable orbit refers to its long period nature; we have no way of predicting exactly when it will come back, only general determinations of so-many thousand years. The perihelion point for this apparition is well-known however (at least insofar as it makes a close approach or hit on mars, but no other planets).

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 03/05/2013 08:38 AM
astrobanner2
Anonymous Coward
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03/05/2013 08:54 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Could an impact create other smaller comets?

Could we potentially get hundreds of small rocks with huge dust clouds flying around the solar system?

Is late 2014 going to be a sky full of observable comets.
FreakObserver

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03/05/2013 09:55 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

muaha
 Quoting: FreakObserver


Huh ?

No one has said anything with certainty, infact Astro has mentioned several times this is an uncertainty.
 Quoting: Wispa


Not sure what your quarrel is.

We are in agreement then...over the uncertainty.
 Quoting: FreakObserver

The uncertainty is not in whether it will hit earth, it's in whether or not it will hit mars. The unstable orbit refers to its long period nature; we have no way of predicting exactly when it will come back, only general determinations of so-many thousand years. The perihelion point for this apparition is well-known however (at least insofar as it makes a close approach or hit on mars, but no other planets).
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


What is the margin of error for a hit on Mars?
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
...


Huh ?

No one has said anything with certainty, infact Astro has mentioned several times this is an uncertainty.
 Quoting: Wispa


Not sure what your quarrel is.

We are in agreement then...over the uncertainty.
 Quoting: FreakObserver

The uncertainty is not in whether it will hit earth, it's in whether or not it will hit mars. The unstable orbit refers to its long period nature; we have no way of predicting exactly when it will come back, only general determinations of so-many thousand years. The perihelion point for this apparition is well-known however (at least insofar as it makes a close approach or hit on mars, but no other planets).
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


What is the margin of error for a hit on Mars?
 Quoting: FreakObserver


About plus or minus .002 AU if I recall correctly. Mars was located close to the center of the uncertainty region in my analysis, but it's still quite a bit bigger than Mars itself.
astrobanner2
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03/05/2013 12:38 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Is this a possible scenario?

[link to img823.imageshack.us]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22151483

As the Doctor pointed out, the planets travel around the Sun in a counter-clockwise direction, meaning that Earth will actually be travelling AWAY from the point of impact at a speed of about 108,000 kph. Also, debris from any impact in the Martian orbit will have to travel about 54,600,000 km to reach Earths orbit.
 Quoting: phoomp


what sort of a reply is that?

of course earth is travelling away, AT FIRST, but then it comes back around. you know? orbits?

as for the distance the debris has to travel, it WILL travel that distance, without a doubt. it'll just take time. I'm not thinking this thing will impact, at least I'm hoping it won't, because a short time after, maybe a year or two, we'll be having random Russian style impacts all over the planet when we encounter the debris, and maybe bigger impacts, depending on how big the chunks are that are thrown into escape velocity

imho

we now know how big an impact a 15 metre wide rock will make. i'm thinking the debris a Mars impact from a a monster rock like this will be a lot bigger than that

i just want to hear the magic words 'impact ruled out'
Anonymous Coward
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03/05/2013 01:23 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I don't know if this was already mentioned but with comets their paths can only be estimated at even by the greatest computers and minds.
This is because we are talking about an object that starts to give off gasses as it warms up. These gases act like manuvering and vector thrusters. Sometimes the release of gases can become akin to a jet.


We can have a general idea of where a comet may end up, but there are no for certains with these things.
RayGun

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03/05/2013 03:26 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov]

The latest trajectory of comet 2013 A1 (Siding Spring) generated by the Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., indicates the comet will pass within 186,000 miles (300,000 kilometers) of Mars and there is a strong possibility that it might pass much closer.
Anonymous Coward
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03/05/2013 11:55 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2013 08:32 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1545225


bump
Anonymous Coward
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03/08/2013 08:09 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
@ Dr. Astro,

I'm trying to get a message to you without getting banned so not posting on the debunker thread. U R not the only one to get death threats. Had a few myself from that same source. I've been to law enforcement, too, and am getting a CCWP. Trinity's woes sound eerily reminiscent of what I went through.

zetafart com
apocalyptichousewife angelfire com/Update_2012_PART1/REBUTTAL_UPDATE html
This is what she put out to her members on me...See ZT called "Aggression."
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
@ Dr. Astro,

I'm trying to get a message to you without getting banned so not posting on the debunker thread. U R not the only one to get death threats. Had a few myself from that same source. I've been to law enforcement, too, and am getting a CCWP. Trinity's woes sound eerily reminiscent of what I went through.

zetafart com
apocalyptichousewife angelfire com/Update_2012_PART1/REBUTTAL_UPDATE html
This is what she put out to her members on me...See ZT called "Aggression."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34423967


Sorry to hear that. To date I still don't know the source of the threats for certain, but I do find it interesting that Nancy still mentions me by name and then lumps me in with people I myself have debunked, as if out of spite. Stay safe out there!
astrobanner2
Lime Flavoured Redux

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03/09/2013 07:30 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
When are we likely to know whether this will hit Mars? I know with Shoemaker/Levy-9 we certainly knew a few months in advance that it was going to hit Jupiter.
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2013 08:01 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Watched a pile of Documentaries lately. There have been an unusual number of them on all sorts of doom.

The one point I remember likeing was when this Scientists said that IN TRUTH somthing could come barrel assing in and smoke us and we would not see it till it was too late at any time. EVEN COMETS.

March 2013 is Doom Month. We don't have to wait until 2014. I can hardly wait!
phoomp

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03/09/2013 08:28 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Watched a pile of Documentaries lately. There have been an unusual number of them on all sorts of doom.

The one point I remember likeing was when this Scientists said that IN TRUTH somthing could come barrel assing in and smoke us and we would not see it till it was too late at any time. EVEN COMETS.

March 2013 is Doom Month. We don't have to wait until 2014. I can hardly wait!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35783465

First. Yes, it's entirely possible that we get hit by an asteroid that we didn't see coming. But, it's been entirely possible over the entire existence of our planet, and getting hit by something big hasn't happened too often.

Second. Documentaries like to use hooks like that to keep you watching.

Third. EVERY month is Doom Month on GLP.

Last Edited by phoomp on 03/09/2013 08:30 AM
Lime Flavoured Redux

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03/09/2013 09:24 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Third. EVERY month is Doom Month on GLP.
 Quoting: phoomp


yes
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2013 09:31 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Watched a pile of Documentaries lately. There have been an unusual number of them on all sorts of doom.

The one point I remember likeing was when this Scientists said that IN TRUTH somthing could come barrel assing in and smoke us and we would not see it till it was too late at any time. EVEN COMETS.

March 2013 is Doom Month. We don't have to wait until 2014. I can hardly wait!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35783465

First. Yes, it's entirely possible that we get hit by an asteroid that we didn't see coming. But, it's been entirely possible over the entire existence of our planet, and getting hit by something big hasn't happened too often.

Second. Documentaries like to use hooks like that to keep you watching.

Third. EVERY month is Doom Month on GLP.
 Quoting: phoomp


Fourth - Isn't your shear due?
Anonymous Coward
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03/12/2013 11:36 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Just read an online article from Science Recorded dated yesterday, March 11. An excerpt (my italics) follows:

"At the time of its discovery, the new comet — whose nucleus is approximately 5 to 30 miles in diameter — was 669 miles from the sun. It is being called a “virgin” comet due to it making first pass through the vicinity of the sun. Traveling in a parabolic orbit, it is predicted to pass the sun at a distance of 130 million miles on October 25, 2014. However, a week prior it is forecast to come within 63,000 miles of Mars, crossing its orbit and spewing cosmic debris onto the surface of the Red Planet.

"While the comet is likely to bypass Mars, a Russian astronomer, Leonid Elenin of from the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, announced the result of recent observations that suggest the comet could pass just 25,700 miles from the center of Mars. Traveling at 35 miles per second, a collision of the comet with Mars could create an enormous impact crater on the planet up to hundreds of miles wide and produce an energy blast of as much as 2 × 1010 megatons."


So, NOW scientists are saying that it is predicted to miss Mars by ONLY about 25,000 to 63,000 miles -- that's not very far, astronomically speaking! Also, as another poster said, the fact that comets give off gases could mean that it is much too soon to say exactly what the comet's course will be. (As Dr. Astro clearly pointed out.)

Finally, if the comet calves, this could change the scenario quite a bit, right?

I think we will hear much more about this in the next 18-19 months! (BTW, anyone read the novel Lucifer's Hammer lately?!)
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump
Dr. AstroModerator (OP)
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
The nominal distance of the close approach on JPL's site is back up to .0007 AUs from .00035 when I made the video, minimum distance is still at 0. The spread between the minimum and maximum distance hasn't changed much, in fact it's actually a little wider now. When it starts to narrow I'll do another analysis but until then there's no real point.
astrobanner2
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
The nominal distance of the close approach on JPL's site is back up to .0007 AUs from .00035 when I made the video, minimum distance is still at 0. The spread between the minimum and maximum distance hasn't changed much, in fact it's actually a little wider now. When it starts to narrow I'll do another analysis but until then there's no real point.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


See:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Expand the table: [show close-approach data]
Read across to the N-sigma value.
Note it is 2.007
This is the # of std. dev.s for an impact with the current data.
A value of 2.0 is about as low as I've ever seen.
Even the objects that the kOOks are wringing their hands over because of "potential impact!!!!!!!!!!!!" have values in the thousands.
As you know from your stats courses, or sections of your major studies, 1000+ std. dev.s is essentially a once-in-a-life-of-the-universe probability.
In fact in Physics and Chemistry, etc. the yardstick is 5 std. dev.s... which is why the social sciences are, while not dismissed, looked at rather poorly since they deal in 0.5 or 1 std. dev.s for significance.
... but 2.0 is altogether a different animal. It is a stark numeric value that there is a real potential for impact given the uncertainties in the orbit.

That's the quick metric I look at. When n-sigma is >6 it means impact likelihood is vanishingly small.

Have fun.


R.
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
close enough to place a big scar on it???

evidence of this on the Mars???