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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
Dr. Astro (OP)
Comet Hustler

User ID: 33360181
United States
03/12/2013 12:40 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
The nominal distance of the close approach on JPL's site is back up to .0007 AUs from .00035 when I made the video, minimum distance is still at 0. The spread between the minimum and maximum distance hasn't changed much, in fact it's actually a little wider now. When it starts to narrow I'll do another analysis but until then there's no real point.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


See:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Expand the table: [show close-approach data]
Read across to the N-sigma value.
Note it is 2.007
This is the # of std. dev.s for an impact with the current data.
A value of 2.0 is about as low as I've ever seen.
Even the objects that the kOOks are wringing their hands over because of "potential impact!!!!!!!!!!!!" have values in the thousands.
As you know from your stats courses, or sections of your major studies, 1000+ std. dev.s is essentially a once-in-a-life-of-the-universe probability. In fact in Physics and Chemistry, etc. the yardstick is 5 std. dev.s... which is why the social sciences are, while not dismissed, looked at rather poorly since they deal in 0.5 or 1 std. dev.s for significance.
... but 2.0 is altogether a different animal. It is a stark numeric value that there is a real potential for impact given the uncertainties in the orbit.

That's the quick metric I look at. When n-sigma is >6 it means impact likelihood is vanishingly small.

Have fun.


R.
 Quoting: R 35329975

That's a good metric to go on. For my analysis the most "visual" aspect is simply how big the uncertainty region is. Even if Mars starts to sit at the very edge of it putting at >6 SD, the overall impact the viewer comes away with is, "well the region is huge it could go anywhere!!OMG!!!" so I may as well wait until the region of uncertainty starts to significantly contract.

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 03/12/2013 12:40 PM
astrobanner2
R
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03/12/2013 12:54 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
That's a good metric to go on. For my analysis the most "visual" aspect is simply how big the uncertainty region is. Even if Mars starts to sit at the very edge of it putting at >6 SD, the overall impact the viewer comes away with is, "well the region is huge it could go anywhere!!OMG!!!" so I may as well wait until the region of uncertainty starts to significantly contract.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Exactly.

Here's the document:
ftp://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/pub/ssd/Horizons_doc.pdf
Section 15.
Body centered.
The max., min. are 3s values.
It's a quick calc. to get N-sigma.
(I laugh when N-sigma is something like 86542.7 and the woowoos are going berserk over a "possible impact!!!!!!!!"
Once-in-a-thousand-universe-lifetimes... i.e. - 0

You can telnet a greater amount of info... does anybody telnet anymore?

Have fun.


R.
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03/16/2013 01:32 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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Snuffielover

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03/17/2013 09:32 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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If any foreign minister begins to defend to the death a "peace conference," you can be sure his government has already placed its orders for new battleships and aeroplanes.
Snuffielover

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03/22/2013 12:58 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Any further news of the corrected comet trajectory? Norwegian Mass Media had an article about this recently. So it's not a hoax at least. Here's the article in Norwegian [link to www.nrk.no]
If any foreign minister begins to defend to the death a "peace conference," you can be sure his government has already placed its orders for new battleships and aeroplanes.
hatch battener
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03/22/2013 01:05 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
No news is bad news.
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Hydra

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03/22/2013 03:05 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Any further news of the corrected comet trajectory? Norwegian Mass Media had an article about this recently. So it's not a hoax at least. Here's the article in Norwegian [link to www.nrk.no]
 Quoting: Snuffielover

Will take some more month - the more observation, the more accurate the calculation.

.
If the Moon is off, if Earth wobbles or if there is a pole shift
how can things like this, predicted decades ago, happen?

aseindia
Annular Solar Eclipse - January 15, 2010 - Rameshwaram, India
Snuffielover

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03/22/2013 05:40 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Any further news of the corrected comet trajectory? Norwegian Mass Media had an article about this recently. So it's not a hoax at least. Here's the article in Norwegian [link to www.nrk.no]
 Quoting: Snuffielover

Will take some more month - the more observation, the more accurate the calculation.

.
 Quoting: Hydra


I am just wondering, do we have those more months? The Norwegian article states that there will be a large debris field in case of an impact. Some of that debris will impact Earth for sure. I am not astronomer but I really dislike all the random variables in this case / scenario. Meaning that real astronomers would have some difficulty saying exactly what will transpire.
If any foreign minister begins to defend to the death a "peace conference," you can be sure his government has already placed its orders for new battleships and aeroplanes.
Hydra

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03/22/2013 06:12 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Any further news of the corrected comet trajectory? Norwegian Mass Media had an article about this recently. So it's not a hoax at least. Here's the article in Norwegian [link to www.nrk.no]
 Quoting: Snuffielover

Will take some more month - the more observation, the more accurate the calculation.
 Quoting: Hydra

I am just wondering, do we have those more months?
 Quoting: Snuffielover

When would it hit (if it hits)? October 2014.

Thus I think you can answer this question by yourself.


The Norwegian article states that there will be a large debris field in case of an impact.
 Quoting: Snuffielover

Impact probaility 1 in 600
Head on collision: big debris field
Grazing shot: small debris field


Some of that debris will impact Earth for sure.
 Quoting: Snuffielover

For sure?
What if it hits the far (not earth facing) side?
And even if it hits Mars in the most unfavourable way - the debris must be at the right place at the right time to come close to earth.
And space is big.

It's more like shooting blindfolded some bullets at a flock of geese five kilometers above.
How much geese will you take down?


I am not astronomer but I really dislike all the random variables in this case / scenario. Meaning that real astronomers would have some difficulty saying exactly what will transpire.
 Quoting: Snuffielover

As said before: wait some monthe and the random variables will narrow.


.
If the Moon is off, if Earth wobbles or if there is a pole shift
how can things like this, predicted decades ago, happen?

aseindia
Annular Solar Eclipse - January 15, 2010 - Rameshwaram, India
(..)

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03/25/2013 08:18 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
NASA releases a new video concerning the comet that may collide with Mars
Anonymous Coward
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03/28/2013 08:39 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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