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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

 
Dr. Charles Norris

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02/25/2013 10:25 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
very odds on against. it's a bit like shooting a bullet in the air over a huge wooded area, and hoping to hit one of four rabbits running around in there when it comes back down
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35088484


except there are literally billions of bullets....

so the question becomes 'when' versus 'will'.....
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 10:30 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Stop fear mongering. It won't even come within 500,000 km.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2497831


[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
What does that say for nominal distance?
0.000702579321135921 AU
That's 105,104.37 km.
What's it say for minimum distance?
0.
It might miss by more than 500,000km, or it might not miss at all. It is unknown at this time. That is not fear mongering, that is the real situation of our orbital determination thus far.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


True, but the maximum distance is ~ .008 AU - 1.2 MILLION kilometers. The latest Minor Planet Ephemeris data suggests that an impact is unlikely, with a nominal pass of 0.015 AU (2,277,700 Km from Mars's surface). The odds of this striking Mars are extremely small. Too small to call it "potential". Perhaps titling the thread "infinitesimally small chance of a comet collision....." would be more accurate.
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
02/25/2013 10:35 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
assuming a 10km object, how big could objects launched from Mars be post impact?
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 10:35 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
hummm imagine a livestream from mars with the big comet getting bigger on the screen.... burnit haha jerkit
imjustsayin

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02/25/2013 10:36 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks Astro for keeping us updated!
Love & Light...
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
02/25/2013 10:38 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Jupiter.....Mars....... uh oh
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 10:38 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Stop fear mongering. It won't even come within 500,000 km.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2497831


[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
What does that say for nominal distance?
0.000702579321135921 AU
That's 105,104.37 km.
What's it say for minimum distance?
0.
It might miss by more than 500,000km, or it might not miss at all. It is unknown at this time. That is not fear mongering, that is the real situation of our orbital determination thus far.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


so astro....
when was the last time you were called a space fear monger?
 Quoting: psyoptics

Astro can't get a break. If he says "won't hit" he is called a disinfo shill. If he says something might hit, he's a fearmonger. This from the people that were hiding under the bed for most of 2012.
DVCMCM

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02/25/2013 10:39 AM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bsmeter

Last Edited by IWASTHERE on 02/25/2013 10:42 AM
Sword of mercy

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02/25/2013 10:52 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
What kind of atmospheric changes can we expect over the years on mars after collision?.
We will pass through the Seven Years or serve God's Will as martyrs.
Anonymous Coward
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Croatia
02/25/2013 10:54 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks Astro for keeping us updated!
 Quoting: imjustsayin


yeah, it's so important to know and cancel the trip to mars

kissup
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 10:55 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks Astro for keeping us updated!
 Quoting: imjustsayin


yeah, it's so important to know and cancel the trip to mars

kissup
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 10:56 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


holy crap. i cant wait to see that, if it happens.
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 11:02 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Dr. Astro, if the comet hit Mars head on, how much debris would be kicked up around Mars?

In other words....would Mars develop a temporary coma of sorts?


I could imagine a nuclear winter scenario on Mars for some time as the dust settles.

But viewing from Earth, how dramatic do you think the viewing would be like?

I can picture a massive glow around Mars from reflecting sun light off debris particles in orbit. With a mild tail maybe?

This is cool stuff!
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 11:07 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Dr. Astro, if the comet hit Mars head on, how much debris would be kicked up around Mars?

In other words....would Mars develop a temporary coma of sorts?


I could imagine a nuclear winter scenario on Mars for some time as the dust settles.

But viewing from Earth, how dramatic do you think the viewing would be like?

I can picture a massive glow around Mars from reflecting sun light off debris particles in orbit. With a mild tail maybe?

This is cool stuff!
 Quoting: --Voltaic--
Reality420

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02/25/2013 11:22 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
I'm working on my own analysis of the comet's orbit and the potential risk right now, but in the meantime since word is starting to get around about this I wanted to go ahead and make the thread to put this out there. Hat tip to Dr. Ian Musgrave:
[link to astroblogger.blogspot.com]
Now, it's important to point out that we don't know the orbit well enough yet to know if it will hit or not. It could make a very close pass to Mars, or it could collide. We just don't know yet. I'm currently running my own analysis to try to determine the level of risk. If it hits though (which would be on October 19th, 2014), the impact will be tremendous. This comet is on a retrograde orbit, traveling the opposite direction of the planets, so a head-on collision would be in excess of 50 km/sec. That's very, very high. Minimum distance of the approach is currently sitting at 0 on JPL's site, maximum distance is at 0.00794 AU.
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
It would be a very, very bad day to be a martian if this thing hits.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Thanks for the info, I missed this.
I've got to bookmark Musgrave's site and check it more often.

We can hope it won't hit because it would be a very bad day for mars, and a few cubic km of martian rock blasted into space could be somewhat detrimental to us if the blast were pointed at our orbit.

Something to watch for sure.

Have fun.


R.
Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions.
-- attributed to Thomas Jefferson

Nothing is more terrible than to see ignorance in action.
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Anonymous Coward
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South Africa
02/25/2013 11:26 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Keep this thread pinned, pretty please?


bump

DOOM ON!....or not



damned
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35088484
United Kingdom
02/25/2013 11:27 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Keep this thread pinned, pretty please?


bump

DOOM ON!....or not



damned
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15581643


great comets blazing through the solar system this year

one potentially impacting an inner planet next year

incoming!!!!
Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
02/25/2013 11:35 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Pravda.ru =

504 Gateway Time-out






Spaceobs.org =


Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /en/tag/c2013-a1-siding-spring/ on this server.




I have accessed both pages earlier today.

Dafuk?
Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
02/25/2013 11:35 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
All the news already published are now censored.


Censored: [link to english.pravda.ru]


Censored: [link to spaceobs.org]



What fuck is happening?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33736277
United States
02/25/2013 11:44 AM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
All the news already published are now censored.


Censored: [link to english.pravda.ru]


Censored: [link to spaceobs.org]



What fuck is happening?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35144210


It's the Great BlackOut of Info...High interest in something can cause this
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35145810
United Kingdom
02/25/2013 12:01 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
It's all bullshit and Astro numpty knows it. Everything he says comes out his lame ass. lala
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18401048
United States
02/25/2013 12:02 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
It's all bullshit and Astro numpty knows it. Everything he says comes out his lame ass. lala
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35145810


:empbutthurt:
Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2013 12:10 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
bump
Anubis
§†€ªmþüñk

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Canada
02/25/2013 12:12 PM

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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Pravda.ru =

504 Gateway Time-out






Spaceobs.org =


Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /en/tag/c2013-a1-siding-spring/ on this server.




I have accessed both pages earlier today.

Dafuk?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35144210



wow even the main pravda website is down

damned
Dr. Charles Norris

User ID: 35115461
United States
02/25/2013 12:29 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
All the news already published are now censored.


Censored: [link to english.pravda.ru]


Censored: [link to spaceobs.org]



What fuck is happening?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35144210


what was on these sites?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 31869061
Canada
02/25/2013 12:31 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks Astro for keeping us updated!
 Quoting: imjustsayin


yeah, it's so important to know and cancel the trip to mars

kissup
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35142686


lol





Businessman Dennis Tito Financing Manned Mission to Mars




National Geographic ‎- 2 days ago

Plans are afoot to send two people on a trip to Mars and back in 501 days.







Dennis Tito, millionaire space tourist, to announce private 2018 trip to Mars





GlobalPost‎ - by Samantha Stainburn‎ - 1 day ago






Is Millionaire Space Tourist Planning Trip to Mars?
Dr. Charles Norris

User ID: 35115461
United States
02/25/2013 12:33 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Thanks Astro for keeping us updated!
 Quoting: imjustsayin


yeah, it's so important to know and cancel the trip to mars

kissup
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35142686


lol

Businessman Dennis Tito Financing Manned Mission to Mars

National Geographic ‎- 2 days ago

Plans are afoot to send two people on a trip to Mars and back in 501 days.

Dennis Tito, millionaire space tourist, to announce private 2018 trip to Mars

GlobalPost‎ - by Samantha Stainburn‎ - 1 day ago


Is Millionaire Space Tourist Planning Trip to Mars?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31869061


Thread: Manned Mission to Mars Bumped to 2018!!!!
Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
02/25/2013 12:47 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
All the news already published are now censored.


Censored: [link to english.pravda.ru]


Censored: [link to spaceobs.org]



What fuck is happening?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35144210


what was on these sites?
 Quoting: Dr. Charles Norris




News about this impact on Mars...


damned
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15581643
South Africa
02/25/2013 12:54 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
All the news already published are now censored.


Censored: [link to english.pravda.ru]


Censored: [link to spaceobs.org]



What fuck is happening?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35144210


what was on these sites?
 Quoting: Dr. Charles Norris






ohyeah
Dr. Charles Norris

User ID: 35115461
United States
02/25/2013 12:59 PM
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Re: Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
All the news already published are now censored.


Censored: [link to english.pravda.ru]


Censored: [link to spaceobs.org]



What fuck is happening?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35144210


what was on these sites?
 Quoting: Dr. Charles Norris




News about this impact on Mars...


damned
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30317398


geezuz

News