Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

It hasn't even been determined that it will hit Mars.

the bottom line is that the Astronomers are not telling
us what they already know about when and how this comet
is going to crash into Mars.

all we are getting from all of the astronomical scientific
experts is: "we are still refining our calculations, and we'll get back with you".

the conspiracy of silence is deafening.

The comet was discovered on Jan 3rd 2013. there isn't much to tell yet, give them time to track it !

that is just the point! they have had plenty of time, since Jan 3, to make all of the necessary computations to determine precisely what this thing is going to do via a vis Mars.

and now! they've EVEN GOT YOU SAYING: "they are still
refining their calculations, and they will be done pretty soon."

sheeeesh!

THEY ALREADY HAVE THE FRICKING ANSWERS, AND THEY'RE NOT TELLING US!

[link to rt.com]

It will hit Mars...the aftermath of that will be large rocks heading toward Earth...Not to shabby on the doom scale

It couldnt happen to a more deserving bunch of aliens.

Martians are the worst!

Thats karma bitches!

what, and lose the opportunity not only to study such an impact but to also take advantage of the many billions of tonnes of water this comet would bring to the planet. Once the dust settles that's a lot of rocket-fuel to exploit not to mention the added vantage of peering deep into mars crust.

That's not how orbital determination works. You need to measure it over time to establish a sufficient baseline to nail down the orbit to the required level of accuracy that far into the future.

I think you need to do a bit of research into NEO's, you will then see it is not a case of spotting it and instantly knowing where it will hit in time to come.
I got me saying that after researching.

i am saying that 2 months is more than enough time
to collect enough data points and extrapolated precisely
where and when this thing is going to crash into Mars,
split it open like a water melon, spreading the pieces all
over the place, and the loss of Mars will severely disrupt
the Earth's orbit, which will cause an ELE TEOTWAWKI catastrophe for everything on this planet.

And I'm saying, no, it's not.

Where's your video Dr. Astro?

that would be awesome Doc

staying tuned.

well, i just looked in all of my physics books, and none of them say anything about "hope".

.

Working on it. The parsing issue was solved, but the file that could be parsed by ORSA was itself inaccurate; it had all the virtual comet positions plunge straight into the sun at the start of the simulation. Turns out that FindOrb loses accuracy in its oscillating elements at high eccentricities. Not an unworkable problem though because it also generates a separate file of the actual state vectors (I tested them and they're accurate even at high eccentricities). I'm now working on loading those into ORSA, though it has to be done manually. To give you some news about this comet in the meantime though:
[link to spaceobs.org]

Last Edited by Astromut on 03/01/2013 10:04 PM

well, while we're waiting for Dr. Astro's cartoon show,
here's a quasi-accurate thumbnail sketch of what will
happen in October 2014 (Mars and Comet)

[link to www.planetary.org]

WTF are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about "hope." First you post a picture from a 2-body simulation that explicitly states not to use it for planetary encounter circumstances or over years of time and you call it an "accurate" thumbnail sketch, now you state that 2 months is more than enough time to extrapolate precisely where and when a long period comet will hit a small planet such as mars a year and a half into the future.

Here's the astrometric data:
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
Now you tell me what the orbital elements or state vectors are precisely and let's see if you're right to within the diameter of mars when the actual close approach to mars happens. Sound like a deal?

NASA lied about your mom and the moon!

Dr. Astro,

I've been following this Yahoo message board which has started talking about C/2013 A1: [link to tech.groups.yahoo.com]
Looks like they have posted new astrometry to add to your dataset.

The person who replies is Robert D. Matson. You may have heard of him. Anyhow, his calculations reduce the nominal miss by 5000km from Elenin's most recent calculations - down to 32000km.

At this rate we will have a confirmed impact in a week

Thanks, I will take those readings into account.

Don't suppose you got that notion anywhere in particular did you?
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

From this thread: [link to tech.groups.yahoo.com]


C/2013 A1 close approach to Mars in October 2014
Posted By:
l.elenin
Sat Mar 2, 2013 5:31 am


Hi Tom and group!

Thanks for the measurements! I will recalculate CA too.

Leonid


and



Re: C/2013 A1 close approach to Mars in October 2014
Posted By:
alvitagl
Sat Mar 2, 2013 9:19 am


Hi all,

Thank you for sharing the latest Kitt Peak observations.

I have runned the MonteCarlo generation of clones, including the latest
observations. After that, the estimated probability of a Mars impact increases,
and, moreover, the location of the possible impactors within the uncertainty
"cloud" of the virtual comets moves from the border towards the middle of the
cloud, in a region of higher density. What happens is that if the clones are
generated assuming a lower standard deviation on the individual observations,
e.g. . 0.5 arcsecs instead of 1.0 arcsecs, the cloud shrinks, but the virtual
impactors are still well inside it, and, since the density increases, the impact
probability estimate also increases.
The linked image shows a picture of the current prediction taken about half an
hour before the possible impact. The generation of clones was made assuming
equal weights on all observations (one discarded) and an esd of. 0.5 arcsecs.
The projection is on the Mars orbital plane, the white spot represents the
nominal solution and the magenta spots are the virtual impactors. In total, 2000
clones are represented. The resulting estimated impact probability is ca. 0.3%

[link to www.webalice.it]

Later I might post an histogram of the distribution of the closest approach
distances.

Best regards

Aldo Vitagliano

related?



When the time comes My dearly beloved daughter for The Warning, a number of signs will be revealed.

I tell you this to remind all God’s children that they must prepare themselves beforehand.

The two stars will collide and many will be fearful.

There is nothing to fear because this is the greatest gift I bring so that not one soul is lost to the fires of Hell.

Then, My Cross, will appear in the skies and not one person will fail to notice.

Many will fall down in fear and a great shaking, like an earthquake, will be felt.

Then will come the silence.



- See more at: [link to www.thewarningsecondcoming.com]

Dr. Astro,

So can a shockwave from an impact this size travel through the vacuum of space?

Think someone is confused over the meaning of hell. When we die we remain in the grave, in a state of "sleep" where we will have absolutely no consciousness of anything, nor the passage of time, until Christ returns. This isn't a pop at you but evey time a comet,asteroid is spotted or an odd occurrence appears on soho people start bringing up "signs ".

Last Edited by Sword of mercy on 03/02/2013 05:54 AM

Think for a moment about how difficult it is for us to travel to Mars.

[link to makeagif.com]

Well then, why don't you calculate it yourself and tell us what's what? You sure seem to know a lot if you think they already know and are not telling. Does your step uncle work for NASA? The thing with science is that you don't know anything for sure until you can run the same data and calculate the same answer over and over. Then and only then can it be confirmed as fact. This thing has only been discovered for two months. It's still far away. As it comes closer the numbers will be more accurate and then they can track it. But knock yourself out accusing. You probably wouldn't know how to calculate the answer yourself, nor do I, which is why I rely on people that do know, like Astro and others here. Why would they not tell? There is little chance that even if it does impact Mars we will feel any repercussions on earth. So what would the point be?