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REPORT COPYRIGHT VIOLATION IN REPLY
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Message Subject
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Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
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Poster Handle
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Dr. Astro |
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Post Content
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That's not how orbital determination works. You need to measure it over time to establish a sufficient baseline to nail down the orbit to the required level of accuracy that far into the future.
Quoting: Dr. Astro i am saying that 2 months is more than enough time to collect enough data points and extrapolated precisely where and when this thing is going to crash into Mars, And I'm saying, no, it's not. well, i just looked in all of my physics books, and none of them say anything about "hope". . WTF are you even talking about? I didn't say anything about "hope." First you post a picture from a 2-body simulation that explicitly states not to use it for planetary encounter circumstances or over years of time and you call it an "accurate" thumbnail sketch, now you state that 2 months is more than enough time to extrapolate precisely where and when a long period comet will hit a small planet such as mars a year and a half into the future. Here's the astrometric data: [ link to www.minorplanetcenter.net] Now you tell me what the orbital elements or state vectors are precisely and let's see if you're right to within the diameter of mars when the actual close approach to mars happens. Sound like a deal?
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