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Message Subject Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
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From this thread: [link to tech.groups.yahoo.com]


C/2013 A1 close approach to Mars in October 2014
Posted By:
l.elenin
Sat Mar 2, 2013 5:31 am


Hi Tom and group!

Thanks for the measurements! I will recalculate CA too.

Leonid


and



Re: C/2013 A1 close approach to Mars in October 2014
Posted By:
alvitagl
Sat Mar 2, 2013 9:19 am


Hi all,

Thank you for sharing the latest Kitt Peak observations.

I have runned the MonteCarlo generation of clones, including the latest
observations. After that, the estimated probability of a Mars impact increases,
and, moreover, the location of the possible impactors within the uncertainty
"cloud" of the virtual comets moves from the border towards the middle of the
cloud, in a region of higher density. What happens is that if the clones are
generated assuming a lower standard deviation on the individual observations,
e.g. . 0.5 arcsecs instead of 1.0 arcsecs, the cloud shrinks, but the virtual
impactors are still well inside it, and, since the density increases, the impact
probability estimate also increases.
The linked image shows a picture of the current prediction taken about half an
hour before the possible impact. The generation of clones was made assuming
equal weights on all observations (one discarded) and an esd of. 0.5 arcsecs.
The projection is on the Mars orbital plane, the white spot represents the
nominal solution and the magenta spots are the virtual impactors. In total, 2000
clones are represented. The resulting estimated impact probability is ca. 0.3%

[link to www.webalice.it]

Later I might post an histogram of the distribution of the closest approach
distances.

Best regards

Aldo Vitagliano
 
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