Potential Epic Comet Collision with Mars in 2014 *UPDATE: VIDEO ON FIRST POST*

If the Comet hits Mars, it will look like Super Nova right inside of our Solar system.
Can you imagine,... a god-damn Super Nova!?
Now you know why DHS is buying ammo by millions, because this will have consequences!

I am not saying that Dr. Astro is not correct but we must be cautious of anyone or any organization saying that the trajectory of this Comet is known with certainty.

Comet C/2013 A1 is a non-periodic Comet. Here is what Wikipedia say about non-periodic comets:

"Non-periodic comets (or long-period comets) are comets that do not have confirmed observations at more than one perihelion passage,[1] and thus generally have orbital periods of 200 years or more. They include single-apparition comets that pass through the Inner Solar System only once. They are on unstable near-parabolic orbits that will not return to the vicinity of the Sun for hundreds, thousands, or even millions of years – if ever."

So, if NASA knew that a comet was on a collision course with Earth in 2014, would they say anything? No, instead they would say that the Comet would hit Mars in 2014.

Everyone is currently saying that there *is no* certainly yet. The only ones trying to say there's any certainly here are the conspiracy theorists who are certain that it'll hit and are certain that it'll either destroy Mars or rain doom down on Earth ... probably both.

these are the same people who said with certainty that the world would end on 12-21, and that niburu was coming. I like the uncertainty keeps you on the edge of your seat and fun to see the process play out. This is a learning experience.

Not sure what your quarrel is.

We are in agreement then...over the uncertainty.

The uncertainty is not in whether it will hit earth, it's in whether or not it will hit mars. The unstable orbit refers to its long period nature; we have no way of predicting exactly when it will come back, only general determinations of so-many thousand years. The perihelion point for this apparition is well-known however (at least insofar as it makes a close approach or hit on mars, but no other planets).

What is the margin of error for a hit on Mars?

As the Doctor pointed out, the planets travel around the Sun in a counter-clockwise direction, meaning that Earth will actually be travelling AWAY from the point of impact at a speed of about 108,000 kph. Also, debris from any impact in the Martian orbit will have to travel about 54,600,000 km to reach Earths orbit.

@ Dr. Astro,

I'm trying to get a message to you without getting banned so not posting on the debunker thread. U R not the only one to get death threats. Had a few myself from that same source. I've been to law enforcement, too, and am getting a CCWP. Trinity's woes sound eerily reminiscent of what I went through.

zetafart com
apocalyptichousewife angelfire com/Update_2012_PART1/REBUTTAL_UPDATE html
This is what she put out to her members on me...See ZT called "Aggression."

Watched a pile of Documentaries lately. There have been an unusual number of them on all sorts of doom.

The one point I remember likeing was when this Scientists said that IN TRUTH somthing could come barrel assing in and smoke us and we would not see it till it was too late at any time. EVEN COMETS.

March 2013 is Doom Month. We don't have to wait until 2014. I can hardly wait!

Third. EVERY month is Doom Month on GLP.

First. Yes, it's entirely possible that we get hit by an asteroid that we didn't see coming. But, it's been entirely possible over the entire existence of our planet, and getting hit by something big hasn't happened too often.

Second. Documentaries like to use hooks like that to keep you watching.

Third. EVERY month is Doom Month on GLP.

The nominal distance of the close approach on JPL's site is back up to .0007 AUs from .00035 when I made the video, minimum distance is still at 0. The spread between the minimum and maximum distance hasn't changed much, in fact it's actually a little wider now. When it starts to narrow I'll do another analysis but until then there's no real point.

See:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Expand the table: [show close-approach data]
Read across to the N-sigma value.
Note it is 2.007
This is the # of std. dev.s for an impact with the current data.
A value of 2.0 is about as low as I've ever seen.
Even the objects that the kOOks are wringing their hands over because of "potential impact!!!!!!!!!!!!" have values in the thousands.
As you know from your stats courses, or sections of your major studies, 1000+ std. dev.s is essentially a once-in-a-life-of-the-universe probability. In fact in Physics and Chemistry, etc. the yardstick is 5 std. dev.s... which is why the social sciences are, while not dismissed, looked at rather poorly since they deal in 0.5 or 1 std. dev.s for significance.
... but 2.0 is altogether a different animal. It is a stark numeric value that there is a real potential for impact given the uncertainties in the orbit.

That's the quick metric I look at. When n-sigma is >6 it means impact likelihood is vanishingly small.

Have fun.


R.

That's a good metric to go on. For my analysis the most "visual" aspect is simply how big the uncertainty region is. Even if Mars starts to sit at the very edge of it putting at >6 SD, the overall impact the viewer comes away with is, "well the region is huge it could go anywhere!!OMG!!!" so I may as well wait until the region of uncertainty starts to significantly contract.