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Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35137807
Australia
02/25/2013 09:18 AM
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Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!


"At some point, holders of Treasury securities are going to recognize that these unfunded liabilities are going to affect the fiscal capabilities of the government and then you're going to have the same situation that happened in Greece happening in the U.S.," says Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, who is a professor of economics at San Jose State University and the author of a recent paper on the consequences of a U.S. government default. "In the short run it's going to be painful, but in the long run it'll be a good thing."

I have two problems with Hummel's comments.

First, I always thought that the whole point of the Austrian economic theory was that specific predictive claims by economists are false because we can not know the future "mind" of the market, thus I wonder what Austrian business cycle models? Economics can only make broadly general predictive claims, such as this: the more fiat money units one creates the less the value of the existing stock.

Second, I believe he is totally wrong when he claims we libertarians are like generals fighting the last war and the central banks by competing have solved the problem of inflation. That is complete lunacy. They compete to inflate more to achieve the short term gain of lowering the value of exports versus imports. The whole thrust of the New Deal financial reforms, and all the subsequent tweeking by quasi-Keynsean Monetarists is to postpone the liquidation of debt by preventing a deflationary collapse of the inflationary fiat money, central banking system. When the US Treasury Bond crisis finally arrives in the form of the market forcing up interest rates as a reaction to price inflation (a different issure from monetary inflation because prices go up in the long run due to increased money supply, but prices may rise and fall in the short run do to central bank policy generated credit cycles) the Fed will be forced by political policy to create more fiat money at an ever increasing rate.

That is the finality of all inflationary cycles throughout the history of fiat money and no tweeking of interest rates by central planners can change that. All they can hope to do is postpone the inevitable. The assumption that the Congress and Executive branch will suddenly come to their collective senses and correct the run away inflation when it becomes too evident for them to continue to deny, like Volker and Greenspan did 40 years ago, is absurd. That is a case of fighting the last war if there ever was one. That is because the debt has grown at an ever increasing rate while the population ages and becomes less productive. The same level of taxing and regulation has an even greater impact on a dwindling private sector, but the regulations and taxes are growing at an increasing rate at every level of society, (while Hummel only sees the Federal level) as the proportion of the population who are net tax receivers grows. The only possible reaction of the central planers will be two choices, either to permit a deflationary collapse (the very thing that all central policy is intended to prevent) or create more fiat money to make up an ever increasing deficit. As interest rates go up the deficit will increase at a geometric rate, the result, hyper-inflation.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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Australia
02/25/2013 09:19 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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02/25/2013 09:20 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
[link to www.youtube.com]

I dont know why video wont embed
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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Australia
02/25/2013 09:37 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Anybody awake in the U.S. to discuss??
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 300884
Sweden
02/25/2013 09:53 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
I agree hyperinflation is the logical end game, and the idea that those who cause inflation and profit from it and gain power from it would suddenly turn around and fight it, is ludicrous.

The only thing that makes people think we won't be buried in an avalanche of hyperinflation in the end, is because they've been able to kick the growing snowball ahead for so many years people are lulled into safety. People grow up living under this distorted economy thinking things are normal.

Things are decidedly not normal! History will look back on the era 1971 to 2013 (-ish) with horror, wondering WTF people were thinking!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 35137807
Australia
02/25/2013 10:17 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
I agree hyperinflation is the logical end game, and the idea that those who cause inflation and profit from it and gain power from it would suddenly turn around and fight it, is ludicrous.

The only thing that makes people think we won't be buried in an avalanche of hyperinflation in the end, is because they've been able to kick the growing snowball ahead for so many years people are lulled into safety. People grow up living under this distorted economy thinking things are normal.

Things are decidedly not normal! History will look back on the era 1971 to 2013 (-ish) with horror, wondering WTF people were thinking!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 300884


Imagine that you’re walking home on a chilly, overcast night…

A man comes up behind you. Sticks something in your back. And with a deep growl, he promises to hurt you if you don’t immediately take him to the ATM machine and hand over your cash.

Of course, you abide – with nervous hands you type in your PIN number… withdrawing your limit for the day.

Half your wealth is instantly gone. But at least you’re safe… for now.

The next night you take a different route home. Yet despite your route change, it happens AGAIN. You’re held up and robbed of your money. And AGAIN the night after that… destroying your savings account, your safety and your lifestyle. Now you feel that there’s no safe place.

That’s exactly what hyperinflation is like. It not only destroys the wealth you’ve amassed, but robs you of any sense of security and order. It takes you for all you’ve got.

Take Zimbabwe for example – where in 2008, inflation rates hit 231,000,000%.

“It is quite interesting to see people going in banks with bags and sometimes even suitcases,” says the businessman. “You know that there are large amounts of money in there – which unfortunately are not going to buy much.”

But businessmen aren’t the only victims of hyperinflation…

The mother of two, cries, “The things that we buy – the groceries at home, the things we get for our two children – we have to buy immediately, as soon as we get the money.”

Why?

She followed up with, “We know that if we wait a bit, the prices are going to go up again. If we wait another week, we will not be able to afford anything. People are taking the money out in suitcases or carrier bags.”

Think this type of inflation couldn’t happen in the U.S? BS.. Think again.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/25/2013 10:36 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Anybody awake in the U.S. to discuss??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35137807


They (banks) compete to inflate more to achieve the short term gain of lowering the value of exports versus imports.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35137807


This is astonishingly true, and truely evil.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 20574169
United States
02/25/2013 10:45 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Yeah we get it, you british wannabees don't like guns.
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
02/25/2013 10:46 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Yeah we get it, you british wannabees don't like guns.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20574169


Brits love being slaves.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
02/25/2013 10:50 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Default is the inevitable end result of Keynesian economic policy.

The longer the politicians keep propping up the current deficit spending programs of the Keynesians the worse the crash is going to be, it is inevitable.

I understand their point of view and why they support the current system, it's what keeps them in power and that is all they are concerned with.

They are corrupt beyond the ability of most people to understand.

The only good news is their days are numbered and that number get smaller and smaller by the hour.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 6788397
Canada
02/25/2013 11:02 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Isnt the stock market supposed to take a massive dive today, and keep plunging over the next few days, and finally collapse on thursday the 28th.

Maybe its why the pope is bailing out on his old position, because he doesnt want to be in charge of anything when the SHTF.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1447583
United States
02/25/2013 11:16 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
By the US gov's own numbers, we ran a deficit of $1.327 trillion in the year 2012. This doesn't even count the unfunded liabilities that were added on in 2012. And now we're being told it's the end of the world if we make $85 billion in cuts. The $85 billion in cuts would shrink the deficit to about $1.24 trillion for the year 2013. If we can't manage ONLY running a $1.24 trillion budget deficit, then I don't see how we can ever close the deficit. Never mind the $16.6 trillion in debt on the books and the current $123 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

Even if we cut the "defense" budget from about $600 billion to $0 and were able to raise an additional $400 billion in tax revenues without businesses going under, we'd still be running a deficit of about $250 billion. And of course, interest rates are going to have to go up unless the FED continues to buy all the US debt. Either the FED buys all of our debt or the interest payments on the national debt surge, as each 1% increase in interest payments requires another $166 billion in tax revenues.

America will default either outright or by issuing worthless money. Got your survival preps and precious metals?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 961432
United States
02/25/2013 11:18 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
I haven't studied Austrian Economics in detail, just cursory observations. But I would say that Austrians don't have a formal "model" for economics, they rely on observations of human actions instead of mathematical models. When interest rates rise that is an indication that overall capital formation is desired by participants to invest in more productive efforts, when interest rates fall it means there is more than enough capital and consumptive behavior is desired by the economy.

My main problem with Austrian Economics is they assume production is always beneficial and is and will always be present. People will always want to buy more stuff regardless of whether or not they already have enough stuff. Developed economies already have enough stuff, enough TVs, cars, refrigerators, ovens, etc. I suppose people need to acquire or replace necessary stuff once the old stuff no longer performs its function - one reason that planned obsolescence is a basic element of any production of a good in modern industry. But the fluff stuff they may not want, how many I-pods does one really need when the new and improved I-pods don't do anything functionally different than the original models?

One of the more interesting items I've read about recently is the federal reserve's D rate, or the interest related to their expanding balance sheets. A point is coming when the fed is paying out more on the sovereign bonds they hold than what they are getting from holding commercial securities. By law they must pay back the interest they make on treasury bonds they hold to the US government. But if that amount of repayment exceeds the amount of payments they receive from the commercial paper they hold they have to create or print money just to print money as they traditionally printed money. Its like printing money squared. At that point they must offer the treasury bonds they hold for sale to member banks, and member banks may demand higher interest rates to hold that liability, thus the D rate. Its theorized the D rate may cause the fed (central banks) to end their quantitative easing operations choosing to save their existing monopolies than allow it to be destroyed via second order or derivative printing.

Also, the amount of liquidity they have created since this current crisis started in 2008 has been "absorbed" to a certain extent in phantom assets, one direct observation is world stock market valuations and another indirect observation is the shadow banking system. Some argue the shadow banking system was invented for the sole purpose of absorbing excessive amounts of inflation, to keep it from the base economy which would induce excessive amounts of inflation.

Since I have a simple mind, I just look at the unsustainable amounts of global debt in relation to real money worldwide. Real money includes items like gold or cash equivalents or debt related instruments that already paid off (principle and interest). The amount of debt or credit/currency in relation to money is insane there is far more credit/debt/currency than real money in the world's economy, and if banks hold that debt as "assets" on their balance sheets with certain pristine valuations, then sooner or later their accounting gimmicks/fraud will explode/implode and cause the crisis to bring the existing bills of credit system to a complete standstill.

.
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
02/25/2013 11:19 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Why not three cheers? Is one cheer a debt cheer? is somebody owed the third cheer?

Whence did thine third cheer go?

cruise
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 961432
United States
02/25/2013 11:28 AM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Why not three cheers? Is one cheer a debt cheer? is somebody owed the third cheer?

Whence did thine third cheer go?

cruise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34379378


It was re-hypothecated and counted over 20 times being securitized by the likes of John Corzine so he could buy a bug out mansion in Barbados.

cruise
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34379378
United Kingdom
02/25/2013 02:40 PM
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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Why not three cheers? Is one cheer a debt cheer? is somebody owed the third cheer?

Whence did thine third cheer go?

cruise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34379378


It was re-hypothecated and counted over 20 times being securitized by the likes of John Corzine so he could buy a bug out mansion in Barbados.

cruise
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 961432


cruise
CeeLite
70's New Wave Punktard

User ID: 33205178
United States
02/25/2013 02:42 PM

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Re: Two Cheers for the Coming Collapse of the U.S. Economy!
Anybody awake in the U.S. to discuss??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35137807


Fuck you too?
CeeLite = "See Light" / Pagan Metalhead
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