000
FXUS62 KTAE 251951
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
251 PM EST Mon Feb 25 2013

...One More Round of Flooding and Severe Weather Expected
Overnight...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A tornado watch continues in effect until 8 pm est for most of the
eastern Florida Big Bend. Another chance for severe weather will
occur later this evening and overnight as a strong cold front races
eastward across the Gulf Coast as a potent upper level system
moves into the Ohio River Valley. A squall line will develop ahead
of the front and will be the focus for the severe weather threat.
The primary threat will be damaging winds but isolated tornadoes
will also be possible. In fact, SPC has areas from Tallahassee
west outlooked for 10% probabilities for seeing significant
tornadoes, something that is rare in this part of the country. We
will also continue to be concerned with additional flooding as
models show another 2 to 3 inches of rain over a widespread area
through daybreak Tuesday and flash flood guidance is down to
1.0-1.5 inches per hour. After coordination with WFO JAX, the
flash flood watch has been extended eastward to include Taylor,
Lafayette and Madison Counties.