But in reality, power in Venezuela nowadays is in the hands of a team of rivals, united by the need to keep the regime on its feet until the next Presidential election. Normally that would be in 2018, but no one expects Chávez to last that long. (As it happens, 2018 is also when Raul Castro has said he will retire.) If Chávez dies or resigns or is incapacitated, there would have to be elections in thirty days. If he had left office in January, the chavistas would likely have won that election easily, since the opposition’s leadership is weak and divided. But two weeks ago, the government announced a 46.5-per-cent devaluation of the Venezuelan currency, the strong bolívar. Chávez’s government has now devalued the currency four times in ten years, and each time the results have been inflation and a scarcity of everyday goods. Popular discontent about the latest devaluation will only make the chavistas’ task harder, and so a countdown has begun for the team of rivals, too.

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