Significant East-Coast Storm Forecast for Next Week. One-Foot of Snow for DC, Philly, NYC! Major Nor'easter

Anyone have a groundhog recipe?.....

Also showing a potential blizzard for Iowa and Illinois

[link to grib2.com]

EURO has genesis just off the Outer Banks.

Need to watch if it rides NE and inside the Benchmark

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

ecmwf goes buckwild with monster next week. Shades of 1962 storm, on same dates!

[link to twitter.com]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 03/01/2013 07:28 AM

Latest GFS has a 990mb surface low.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]


EURO

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]

Geez, so now you're the weather girl too?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
622 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2013

MAJOR CSTL STORM REMAINS IN PLAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

00Z GFS SUPPORTS THE PATTERN THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARD TO THE LOW NEXT WEEK. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL NOT STRAY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS FCST.

SWIRL ON STLT AT ABOUT 45N/150W OVER THE PACIFIC LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN UPR LVL FEATURE TO FOLLOW. A SFC LOW EJECTS FROM THE
PLAINS...GATHERS MOISTURE FROM THE GOMEX...THEN IS CAPTURED BY THE
UPR LOW OFF THE E COAST.

CWA WILL BE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE STORM...WITH PROLONGED STRONG
E/ENE FLOW AND HVY PCPN. THE LOW IS NOT PROGGED TO DROP BLW THE 990S
ATTM...BUT A STRONG GRADIENT WILL SET UP WITH A 1030S HIGH OVER THE
MARITIMES.

QPF OVER AN INCH. THE ELY COMPONENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE PCPN MOSTLY
RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. INTERIOR SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITH SOME ELEVATION...COULD RECEIVE WRNG LVL WET SNOW.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...SO CHANGES IN THE EXACT
TRACK CAN BE EXPECTED.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]

Accu-Weather Met:

ECMWF surface and precip for Wed eve. It has a DC special with a foot of snow

GFS trend is to come north like the ECMWF with major Nor' easter along the coast.

[link to twitter.com]

12Z GFS has about 12" Philly to NYC. More for Catskills to Albany.

[link to pbs.twimg.com]

Please no, we have had enough...go away storm

Example of upcoming Winter Storm Sequester using White House logic. This box floats wherever it can get publicity

[link to pbs.twimg.com]

Doorbert where are you ????

So what does this mean for the Raleigh are?

Nice! We've only had 2" in DC to date. My New England bones say "Bring it on!"

Hot chocolate and marshmallow time!

lol

I'm sure they have one at the Roadkill Cafe..(lol)

Anything for the Mid Ohio Valley?

4" really wet snow and 12C for the next few days, litter deeper next door.

[link to www.theweathernetwork.com]

Thanks for pin

Not one that doesn't involve getting him when he's plump. Make doughnut holes all winter long.

I hope not. My back is just getting better from the last one.

Do they need a name? I'd suggest Trayvon. The snowplows can stay in the barn.

This should start to look interesting around Tuesday.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**SUBSTANTIAL LONG DURATION NOREASTER FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY**

DEFERRED ON WATCHES AT THIS TIME SINCE WE`RE FORECAST FOR PERIODS
6-8...72 TO 96 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

THOSE WITH CONCERNS FOR S NJ...DE AND E MD SHORE AND FAR SE PA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS...WATCHES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS BEGINNING TOMORROW
MORNING:

COASTAL FLOOD...MODERATE OR MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR THE S
NJ AND ESPECIALLY DELAWARE ATLANTIC COAST. PLEASE SEE TIDE SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...POTENTIAL HIGH WIND EVENT /60 MPH GUSTS/ FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND ESPECIALLY COASTAL DELAWARE WITH WIND ADVISORY
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE...E
MD AND INTERIOR SOUTH THIRD OF NJ POSSIBLY THROUGH PHILADELPHIA
AND SE PA.

SNOW...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE
GOVERNS RAIN/SNOW.

RIGHT NOW THE LOWEST 50 MB ABOVE 0C LAYER IS THE DIFFICULTY ON
CONFIDENTLY FORECASTING A MAJOR WET SNOW. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW THAT WILL ACCUMULATE
SEVERAL SLOPPY INCHES IN PARTS OF OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND ADJACENT NE MD AND POSSIBLY SE PA. 06Z-12Z/3 GFS
DENDRITE GROWTH LOOKS TO BE SUBSTANTIAL FOR 12 HOURS WEDNESDAY
OVER E MD AND DE. HOWEVER... ITS FAR TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
AMOUNTS... TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE. IF THIS RAIN CHANGING TO
HEAVY WET SNOW DOES OCCUR...AND IT LASTS FOR 6 HOURS OR MORE WITH
THE SURFACE TEMP 33F...WE WOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR POWER OUTAGES
DUE TO WET SNOW ACCRETION ON TREES AND WIRES. AGAIN FAR TOO EARLY.

FOR NOW OUR SNOW GRIDS ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE SFC TEMPS.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]

Id like to ring that things neck!

doorbert, whats ur thoughts on the ohio valley on how much snow they will get?

Looks like rain Tuesday and the a rain snow mix Wednesday here in my area.