Snowquester Storm BOMB!!! Mid Atlantic to get hammered with storm.

this Could turn out to be a big snowfall somewhere within this area............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-501-502-VAZ025> 031-036>040-042-
050>056-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-041815-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADI SON-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE ...ANNAPOLIS...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...HIGHTOWN...M ONTEREY...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...
PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...
FRANKLIN
510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

HTS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1021 AM CST MON MAR 4 2013

...POTENT SNOW STORM TO IMPACT AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.AN INTENSE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW WHICH WILL FALL AT HEAVY RATES AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
30 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.

ALOT of Uncertainty about DC.............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
WET SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING. A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREAS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN-SNOW LINE...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL DETERMINE SNOWFALL
TOTALS. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY OR IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT OCCURS
THEREAFTER.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

NORTHEAST GALES WILL OCCUR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A PERIOD
OF 50 TO POSSIBLY 55 KNOT STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE WIND AND SEA STATE IMPACT OF THIS STORM ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL STORM.

wow Look at that storm off the del-Mar coastline... [link to www.weatherstreet.com]

I have liked him and will follow. Thanks!!!

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Wind, beach erosion and coastal flooding to start Wednesday on mid-Atlantic, New England coasts: [link to ow.ly]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY AND THE RAIN WILL
PROBABLY CHANGE TO WET SNOW AT TIMES....POSSIBLY WITH BURST OF HEAVY
SNOW. A PERIOD OR TWO OF STRONG NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO POSSIBLY
60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF DELAWARE WITH AT LEAST MINOR...IF NOT MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

A WINTER STORM WATCH...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH WIND WATCH "MAY"
BE ISSUED FOR THE APPROPRIATE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN OUR 330 PM
FORECASTS. WE STILL HAVEN`T EVALUATED ALL THE DAYTIME GUIDANCE TO
BE SURE ON OUR COURSE OF ACTION.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH WOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND CECIL COUNTY OF
NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND THEN POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF NEW JERSEY FOR WEDNESDAY MID AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD LESSEN
THE POTENTIAL AMOUNT OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR BOTH THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE ATLANTIC COASTS FOR THE MID WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PREDAWN THURSDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THIS WATCH WILL
PROBABLY NOT INCLUDE ANY OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE.

THE HIGH WIND WATCH IF WE ISSUE...WOULD PROBABLY BE FOR CAPE MAY
COUNTY...COASTAL MONMOUTH... COASTAL OCEAN AND COASTAL ATLANTIC
COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY THROUGH SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE WHERE THERE
IS GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEEDING 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR 60.

AGAIN THIS A POSSIBILITY FOR OUR 330 PM PRODUCTS AND THE ABOVE
OUTLINES OUR AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN.

MINOR CHANGES IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES TO THE OUTCOME.

PLEASE MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL STORM.

Holy cow!!!

that is a monster

LMFAO, indeed!!!! I was in Hagertucky but now in GhettoBmore. I miss it.

Bernie Rayno is on board with more than 6 inches in DC.

That's a good sign for DC. He's been on fire lately.

[link to www.accuweather.com]

Is the John Holmes of the winter storms.

Folks in the Mid Atlantic should be doing some of this shortly:

That is me all the way! Going to get that and stuff to bake yummies right now. My husband needs substinence when shoveling.

Lol! I love it.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1236 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013

...PAIR OF DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SWRN U.S...
...EVENTUAL MERGER AND AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST LEADING TO S
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...

PREFERENCES: STILL A 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS BLEND...
CONFIDENCE: NO MORE THAN AVERAGE BUT THAT MAY CHANGE SOON.


OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE SYSTEMATIC
MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM CAMP AND THE ECMWF/UKMET
CAMP. THE NCEP MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF ENSEMBLES/NAM/GFS/GEFS
ARE SYSTEMATICALLY FARTHER NORTH THAN WITH THE UPPER LOW STARTING
ON TUESDAY OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 09Z
SREF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARD TO
SPEED APPEARS PRETTY UNIFORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.

OVERNIGHT...THE 00Z UKMET TRENDED NORTH FROM EARLIER RUNS AND
APPEARED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHEREAS EARLIER IT
WAS MORE OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF
HAVE INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND FASTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE EAST
COAST. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS THROUGH 6Z HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY
STABLE...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO
CONTINUING. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS NO DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER
RUNS EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE...THE 12Z
GFS PROVIDES NO NEW INFORMATION EXCEPT THAT IT HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF. HAVE ALSO LOOKED AT THE 12Z UKMET AND
CANADIAN EVEN THOUGH I AM NOT SUPPOSED TO INCLUDE IT YET...BUT
BOTH SEEM TO SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS...WITH THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUING
ITS TREND OF MOVING NORTH OF THE RUNS 24 HOURS AND GREATER. THE
12Z CANADIAN DOES NOT TAKE MUCH SNOWFALL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY. WILL HAVE MORE TO SAY IN THE NEXT DISCUSSION WHEN I
HAVE HAD MORE TIME TO DIGEST.

STILL AWAITING THE 12Z ECMWF TO SEE IF IT TOO HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD. IF NOT...THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO A
DEGREE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON BALTIMORE AREA...WHERE
THE ECMWF HAS PRODUCED LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA. THAT MAY CHANGE WITH THE 12Z RUN.

IN THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE
THE CYCLONE IS EAST OF THE COAST...ALLOWING SNOW TO REACH
NORTHWARD INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOMETHING
THAT THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE UKMET
DOES...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN DO NOT. THE NAM 500 MB
LOW IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REASONABLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS SHOWN
BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAN THE EARLIER OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL AS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS...EXCEPT FOR THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHERE THE
SURFACE LOWS ARE NEARLY EXACT.

12Z Euro is in fact north, now getting moderate precip into NYC on Thursday early AM [link to i.imgur.com]

[link to i.imgur.com] Almost identical, Euro slightly south and weaker

lol!

another east coast storm on the CMC [link to meteocentre.com] [link to meteocentre.com]

I am sure most of them are happy to skip this party. They have had enough.

The 12Z GFS currently shows the upcoming NE storm as a textbook example of Norwegian frontal theory. The cyclone lies in the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak, so it shouldn't be a warm seclusion, which is also supported by the closed ring of lower thickness directly around the center. [link to www.meteo.psu.edu]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Example precip/temp for Alliance NE is astounding, 3.5" QPF [link to twitter.com (secure)]

201 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE EXACT DETAILS OF HOW THIS STORM
WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR:

* SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.
* WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
* MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
* HIGH SURF AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG THE OCEAN FACING
BEACHES AND TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

so it's going to be cold enough for snow for SW coastal CT/NYC