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BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!

 
Luisport

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03/03/2013 12:28 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
GFS and ECWMF agree with a trough in 9 days: [link to www.twisterdata.com] [link to www.twisterdata.com] Although the GFS representation of it is not too great for severe wx, the warm airmass could at least support severe thunderstorms if no tornadoes. ECMWF could potentially be more serious, but too early to tell [link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]
Luisport

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03/03/2013 12:30 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
Latest GFS calls for burying Wash DC under 8" or more.. [link to 204.2.104.196]
Astral Goat
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03/03/2013 12:31 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
In another weird weather report, the humidity in my house is 8%????

How the hell can it be that low/
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Astral Goat
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03/03/2013 12:35 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
Latest GFS calls for burying Wash DC under 8" or more.. [link to 204.2.104.196]
 Quoting: Luisport


8 inches is a good amount. Enough to shut things down for a couple days.
[link to nextgenfmradio.com] All night dance party!
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I don't have a "you can't do this" voice in my head. -Yanni
oneLOVEsoulJAH

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03/03/2013 12:37 PM
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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
In another weird weather report, the humidity in my house is 8%????

How the hell can it be that low/
 Quoting: Astral Goat


Related to your post - my barometer will read dry and it can be snowing out. Often the weather does not relate to the barometer readings.

The only time the barometer reads the same as the weather is when it is changing, raining (wet) or dry. I think it is related to the chemicals they are putting in the atmosphere.

oneLOVE
Luisport

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03/03/2013 12:38 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]
Mr. Predictor
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03/03/2013 12:41 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
crap ... thought this thread would have pictures of hot weather babes !!!
6473madburger

Obama Pledge

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And to civil unrest in America
And to the Republic
I plan to destroy
Two Nations
Under funded
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With misery and poverty for all

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Ricky Retardo

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03/03/2013 12:44 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
this!

we have had all of 1.5 inches of snow in md
Formerly Anita PooporShart & Anderson Pooper.
Astral Goat
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03/03/2013 12:47 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
this!

we have had all of 1.5 inches of snow in md
 Quoting: Ricky Retardo


So you remember Snowmageddon then?

What part of state were you in?
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Luisport

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03/03/2013 12:48 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Max GFS snowfall 12-15'' assuming 10:1 liquid equiv. thru 4-day forecast. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Astral Goat
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03/03/2013 12:50 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
Weather Channel is showing 80% chance "SIGNIFICANT" snow accumulation for Maryland.

Accuweather shows mostly rain.
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Luisport

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03/03/2013 12:51 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
the 12z GFS ensembles are showing a SC to NE affected area for wednesday's storm as to where this low could track..at this point, the upper air dynamics need to be sampled as this storm could affect a huge population [link to expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk] [link to expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk]
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:01 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
Saturday, March 2, 2013March 4-6 Potential Significant Winter Storm
By Andrew at 10:43 AM
Have upgraded storm title in accordance with latest model trends.

Satellite imagery indicates the storm system in question is currently still mainly offshore of the west coast of North America. The enhanced infrared values over land, however, show that this system is at least partially sampled into the upper air network. This means that weather balloons can collect data from the storm that then enhances model forecast verification chances. This is a point that I will restate in the next several minutes that you read this.

Recent observations of the latest model forecasts show that this system will be putting down some significant snowfall. The two images above show the 84 hour accumulated snowfall forecast for the GFS on top and NAM on bottom. As you can see, both models remain slightly different in placement of snowfall, and there are differences in snowfall amounts. The NAM model has more snowfall than the GFS, which is typical, since it has a wetter-than-normal bias. The GFS model and NAM model both indicate that there will be a heavy snowfall event in North Dakota, possibly into Minnesota. From there, we diverge into two different tracks. One track has heavy snow in Chicago and Milwaukee (essentially the NAM and European models), while the other track has the heaviest snow in Iowa and central Illinois (American model).

Looking at animations of recent model runs, I have seen a clear northward trend in model forecasts, more towards the first track I mentioned in the above paragraph. Because the system is just now getting onshore and into the weather balloon network, changes in the models were bound to occur. However, this last-minute shift north is interesting in more than how the system is now just getting onshore. I could see how the system maintains this north track. It will be coming into the US from the Pacific Jet Stream, which is the jet stream in the North US. As a result, it is more likely than not to be bound to the northern jet stream (essentially the northern track) than completely separating and shifting south, in my opinion. I feel like the recent models are also counting this factor in, but the big question is where the snow will fall. In that aspect, I can't say I'm too sure just yet. I will need to see another 12-24 hours of snowfall forecasts before I'm confident enough to issue an accumulation map. However, I am confident enough to say that I can make a preliminary map, which is shown above.

I may need to extend that 'Heaviest Snow' area further south and east with time, but I'm just not confident enough yet to bring it in that direction.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:02 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
March 6-8 Potential Nor'easter
By Andrew at 3:47 PM
Note: This will not be a full-blown Nor'easter.

Both major weather models are pointing towards a late-season partial Nor'easter that would be spit out of the Mid-Atlantic to dump snow in New England before moving out to sea.

Shown above is the European model's (top) forecast for mean sea level pressure about 7 days out. The bottom image shows mean sea level pressure and precipitation, again for 7 days out. Analysis of the two forecasts reveals that they are similar in both strength and placement of this storm. To have both major weather modeling systems in agreement at this point in time is certainly a good sign for those wanting snow in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

With that agreement noted, I have opted to show the 48 hour accumulated snowfall forecast from Hour 156. We can clearly see a major hit of snow for Pennsylvania, New York and maybe a sliver of New Jersey, while coastal states are in the no-snow zone, as a typical Nor'easter will do. We see amounts exceeding one foot of snow, and these totals are centered in southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania. Major amounts of 6-12 inches are still found widely across New York and in the middle of Pennsylvania, as well as western Massachusetts and one or two other coastal states. Lower amounts below half a foot are found widely across the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic.

Right now, such good model agreement is certainly a good sign for the above forecast to work out but we are still over 5 days away. That's a lot of time for things to change, and the system hasn't even gotten into the nation's upper air network, where the weather balloons can get data from the storm and put it into models to enhance forecasts.

Despite all the caveats, I feel confident in my call for all in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic to keep one eye open on this system. It has good potential to bring heavy, wet snow to parts of the regions mentioned above, and must be monitored.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Anonymous Coward
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03/03/2013 01:07 PM
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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
The storm next week is scheduled to occur about a week ahead of the 20th anniversary of the "Storm of the Century," otherwise known as the "Blizzard of '93."

Makes me feel old ... 29 years ago? wow time flies tissue
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34908315


In both models they are predicting I get slammed with heavy snow.
Oh Dear God I pray not another blizzard like 93! We had no power, there was ice forming in the windows (as inside the house). Oh it was hell! Almost 2 feet of snow, and a few times whiteout conditions.
We had no power for almost 24 hours and I live in the city.
Would you believe it was so bad my neighbor literally walked up and down the blocks til she could find an electric truck.
They felt so sorry for us they followed her down to our neighborhood and restored the power.
 Quoting: Olea Yimoria


A whole 24 hours?

gaah

lmao
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31705964


Yeah but I had my then living elderly grandparents to take care of!
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:13 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
RyanMaueRyan Maue 1 min


I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC [link to twitter.com (secure)] banana2
Luisport

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

[Animated GIF] Latest model guidance from the 12z GFS (American) computer model regarding Winter Storm #Saturn. [link to wxch.nl]
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:14 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013

VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC

...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z
SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z
NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z
GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND
EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE
WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE
BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC
MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL
REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z
GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS
SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION.

IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF
DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
Olea Yimoria

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03/03/2013 01:16 PM

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RyanMaueRyan Maue 1 min


I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC [link to twitter.com (secure)] banana2
 Quoting: Luisport


Wish Granted!!hf (You do realize this is major sarcasm?)

Last Edited by Olea Yimoria on 03/03/2013 01:23 PM
Olea Yimoria

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03/03/2013 01:20 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013

VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC

...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z
SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z
NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z
GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND
EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE
WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE
BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC
MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL
REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z
GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS
SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION.

IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF
DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you translate that for the Northwestern foothills of NC?
The Mountains are in my county but I live at the base of them.
I can't translate "weatherspeak'. LOL
Thankshf
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:25 PM

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[link to www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov] CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD WILL PROBABLY BE PUT IN PLACE LATER TODAY.. AFTER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND COORDINATION/DISCUSSIONS ARE CONDUCTED.. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGION DURING THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS . MORE TO COME ON CWD ISSUANCE AFTER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMPLETE. THE CWD WILL INSURE A MORE RELIABLE FLOW OF DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT TO NWS AND NCEP CENTERS.. DURING THIS WINTER STORM EVENT. [link to www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov]
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:26 PM

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RyanMaueRyan Maue 1 min


I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC [link to twitter.com (secure)] banana2
 Quoting: Luisport


Wish Granted!!hf (You do realize this is major sarcasm?)
 Quoting: Olea Yimoria


of course! Ryan has a great sense of humour!afro
Luisport

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013

VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC

...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z
SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z
NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z
GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND
EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE
WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE
BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC
MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL
REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z
GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS
SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION.

IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF
DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:30 PM

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[link to grib2.com] [link to grib2.com] [link to grib2.com]
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:31 PM

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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

The RealFeel temperature in Cheyenne, Wyoming is 47 degrees, but in Jacksonville, Fla. it is only 35.
Texan Buckeye

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03/03/2013 01:32 PM
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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013

VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC

...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z
SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z
NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z
GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND
EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE
WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE
BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC
MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL
REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z
GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS
SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION.

IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF
DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you translate that for the Northwestern foothills of NC?
The Mountains are in my county but I live at the base of them.
I can't translate "weatherspeak'. LOL
Thankshf
 Quoting: Olea Yimoria


Hi, OY. Pretty much what all that means is, they aren't sure where the line will be for rain/snow. They'll wait until the models are more in agreement. It looks like they are all predicting different areas for the change over. Keep an eye on your local reports and Luis's thread. He'll have it before the local, most likely.

Luis is the best at finding and keeping up with the information.
They also serve who stand and wait. John Milton
Luisport

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03/03/2013 01:35 PM

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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
 Quoting: Texan Buckeye


Hi, OY. Pretty much what all that means is, they aren't sure where the line will be for rain/snow. They'll wait until the models are more in agreement. It looks like they are all predicting different areas for the change over. Keep an eye on your local reports and Luis's thread. He'll have it before the local, most likely.

Luis is the best at finding and keeping up with the information.


hf Hi my dear how are you? Thank you for your words, but this is not my thread... i'm only helping!
Texan Buckeye

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03/03/2013 01:41 PM
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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
 Quoting: Texan Buckeye


Hi, OY. Pretty much what all that means is, they aren't sure where the line will be for rain/snow. They'll wait until the models are more in agreement. It looks like they are all predicting different areas for the change over. Keep an eye on your local reports and Luis's thread. He'll have it before the local, most likely.

Luis is the best at finding and keeping up with the information.
 Quoting: Luisport


hf Hi my dear how are you? Thank you for your words, but this is not my thread... i'm only helping!


Hi! All's well here! Crazy weather! We're going to hit 80 F today and 50 F on Tuesday. I'm glad to see you're helping, I didn't realize it wasn't your thread until now.

hi
They also serve who stand and wait. John Milton
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 9700822
United States
03/03/2013 01:48 PM
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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
March 6-8 Potential Nor'easter
By Andrew at 3:47 PM
Note: This will not be a full-blown Nor'easter.

Both major weather models are pointing towards a late-season partial Nor'easter that would be spit out of the Mid-Atlantic to dump snow in New England before moving out to sea.

Shown above is the European model's (top) forecast for mean sea level pressure about 7 days out. The bottom image shows mean sea level pressure and precipitation, again for 7 days out. Analysis of the two forecasts reveals that they are similar in both strength and placement of this storm. To have both major weather modeling systems in agreement at this point in time is certainly a good sign for those wanting snow in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

With that agreement noted, I have opted to show the 48 hour accumulated snowfall forecast from Hour 156. We can clearly see a major hit of snow for Pennsylvania, New York and maybe a sliver of New Jersey, while coastal states are in the no-snow zone, as a typical Nor'easter will do. We see amounts exceeding one foot of snow, and these totals are centered in southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania. Major amounts of 6-12 inches are still found widely across New York and in the middle of Pennsylvania, as well as western Massachusetts and one or two other coastal states. Lower amounts below half a foot are found widely across the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic.

Right now, such good model agreement is certainly a good sign for the above forecast to work out but we are still over 5 days away. That's a lot of time for things to change, and the system hasn't even gotten into the nation's upper air network, where the weather balloons can get data from the storm and put it into models to enhance forecasts.

Despite all the caveats, I feel confident in my call for all in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic to keep one eye open on this system. It has good potential to bring heavy, wet snow to parts of the regions mentioned above, and must be monitored.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
 Quoting: Luisport


But I thought most models only see this as a storm for Virginia!
Anonymous Coward
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United States
03/03/2013 01:51 PM
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Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!
We have power outages here, burning wood makes sense, which is why I need to know when to start cutting and bringing it in.

What's it looking like for Mid Atlantic?

I think it's still too far out.
 Quoting: Astral Goat


Do you have a wood burning stove or a fireplace? If so, has your chimney been cleaned recently? Just making sure so you don't burn your house down, lol.

If you are serious about stock piling wood, I would start now to make sure the wood is dry enough to burn. Make sure you have extra newspapers and cardboard, too, to get it started and keep it going. Hubby chops up some for kindling as well. A little bit of work, but well worth the effort to have heat at least! Good luck, hope you folks don't get hit too hard down there!

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