BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!!

think the flight from providence to chicago at 6am tomorrow will be canceled??

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS precip-type looks like a mess for CT, RI, Mass. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

21 min Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Overnight Wed into Thurs, New England gets perhaps worse effects of storm. Last 2-GFS forecasts: [link to twitter.com (secure)]

23 min Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS is consistent w/last run. Forecast location of low-center is about the same w/similar 6-hrly QPF at +54 hr [link to twitter.com (secure)]

24 min Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Little change with 12z GFS. 27km full resolution derived (10:1) surface snowfall through 4-days, VA-DC-NYC-BOS [link to twitter.com (secure)]

60 min Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Inner-nest of NAM at 4km resolves topography better to see effects for mountain enhanced rain/snow. 2.5 day totals: [link to twitter.com (secure)]

2 h Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

12z GFS will be out in hour for storm period. Total liquid QPF for 00z, 06z runs consistently around 2'' max for DC [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Winter storm to spread heavy snow from North Dakota to Virginia

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:44 PM GMT em 04 de Março de 2013

The flakes are flying in Minnesota and North Dakota, where up to 10" of snow has fallen from an "Alberta Clipper" that is barreling southeastwards across the U.S. These type of storms, so-named because they originate in Alberta and clip along at a fast forward speed, typically bring the Midwest moderate amounts of fluffy snow that is relatively easy to shovel. The storm, dubbed Winter Storm Saturn by The Weather Channel and "Snowquester" by The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, is expected to bring a swath of 6 - 10" of snow from Minnesota to Virginia Monday through Wednesday, with Chicago expected to get 6 - 9", their biggest snow of the season. Once the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday, its strong winds will make coastal flooding a major concern for the Mid-Atlantic coast, particularly Delaware, on Wednesday and Thursday. The computer models are still showing quite a bit of disagreement on what the storm might do on Wednesday. The European model has been the most consistent model, and maintains that the storm will not bring heavy snow to New England. I would lean towards this solution at present. However, keep in mind that the latest run of the GFS model shows a more northerly track, with heavy snow falling along a swath of coast from Long Island, NY, to Boston, MA, Wednesday through Thursday. The exact position of the rain/snow boundary along the Mid-Atlantic coast is also quite uncertain. Washington D.C. could end up with mostly rain, and just 1 - 2" of snow, or get a 6+ inch dumping, picking up more snow from one storm than from the all the snowstorms from the past two winters, combined:

Reagan Nat'l Airport (DCA):
- Snowfall this season-to-date: 1.5"
- Snowfall all last season: 2"
- Last 5"+ snow event: Jan. 26, 2011 (5")
- Last 10"+ snow event: Feb. 9-10, 2010 (10.8")

Dulles Airport, Virginia (IAD)
- Snowfall this season-to-date: 5.3"
- Snowfall all last season: 3.7"
- Last 5"+ snow event: Jan. 26, 2011 (7.3")
- Last 10"+ snow event: Feb. 9-10, 2010 (9.3")

(Thanks go to Jonathan Erdman of TWC for these stats.) The Capital Weather Gang has an interesting article on historical March snowstorms in Washington D.C. In order for Winter Storm Saturn to crack the top-ten, it would have to dump at least 6.6" of snow on the nation's capital.

Coastal flooding a concern in the Mid-Atlantic
As the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday night, winds gusting to 50 mph will build waves of up to 15' and a 3 - 4' storm surge along the coast to the north of the center. Heavy rains will bring runoff down rivers that will act to increase water levels along the coast. The latest Forecast Discussion from the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office highlights the likelihood of at least moderate coastal flooding in Delaware during the high tide cycles on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, with the possibility of major flooding. The latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model calls for a storm surge of around 3' at Lewes, Delaware on Thursday morning, which would bring the 8th highest water level on record to the coast. This is of concern due to the damage Hurricane Sandy brought in October, which weakened the dunes and left the coast more vulnerable to erosion. Sandy brought the 3rd highest water level on record to Lewes.

[link to www.wunderground.com]

There were some strong winds last night in Baltimore ahead of this front must be powerful

I just shit my pants when I saw the latest run of the NAM. It's a blizzard for the whole northeast from DC to Boston. Luisport, do u think this could verify?

yes!

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAM 4km (WRF) huge 60-hr snowfall totals in mountains of VA, 1-2 feet northern Maryland. Actual ground depth ~50% [link to twitter.com (secure)]

25 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Chicago snow-totals thru Tuesday should be substantial w/about an inch of liquid equiv precip [link to twitter.com (secure)]

SW CT Weather Info %u200F@SWCTweather

18z GFS coming out now also shows a direct hit for much of SW CT and an extreme wind threat. I think winds may cause more problems than snow

If the 0z ECMWF trends again towards the GFS and the GFS/NAM stay firm, we could be looking at Blizzard Watches going up tomorrow.

Todd Gutner‏@ToddWBZ

The final track of storm is still in question but cold rain and wet snow is likely with some accumulating snow possible.

2 minTodd Gutner‏@ToddWBZ

A lock that the Coast has problems from midweek storm: large waves, beach erosion and gusty, if not damaging wind.

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013

VALID 00Z TUE MAR 05 2013 - 00Z THU MAR 07 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STARTING TONIGHT...

A SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
CITIES FROM MINNEAPOLIS AND CHICAGO...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THEN ALONG THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARD
THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METRO REGIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW TOTALS IN AND AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR DUE
TO RAIN LIKELY MIXING IN DURING THE STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FARTHER WEST
INTO REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FEW
BANDS OF LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW BUT AS THE STORM DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS
THE TWO MERGE...SNOWFALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN...WHEREBY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
THE WEST AND POSSIBLY ALONG I-95 FROM D.C. TO PHILADELPHIA. WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT ACCUMULATIONS
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW
AND RAIN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING FROM THE DELMARVA TO NEW YORK.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER
BANKS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH SURF WITH
POSSIBLE OCEAN OVERWASH AND COASTAL FLOODING MAY IMPACT AREA
BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS.

Yikes! What a sad mess to come home to. Sorry about the guy who died.

Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC

As it stands, there will certainly be some erosion/coastal flood concerns for DE/NJ coast, first. #Saturn

50 segEric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC

If trend north continues, major NE coastal erosion could be in play with #Saturn. Read @NWSBoston discussion: [link to 1.usa.gov]

AccuWeather.com‏@accuweather

Spring is approaching, and events are blooming all over the place! @eventcrazy has it all [link to ow.ly]

wow look at this nor-easter thurs.............. [link to www.weatherstreet.com]

[link to i.imgur.com]

Wait that latest one is showing totals over a foot?

yes, 1 to 2 foot

It's quite the calm before the storm here in Maryland right now.

Beautiful out. THis is exactly how it was last time we had a really bad snow in 2010.

take care now and prepare!

Thread: Dr. Acula and Friends: Emergency Winter Prep Tips!!! (411)

before its too late folks :)