BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 12:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 12:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! Latest GFS calls for burying Wash DC under 8" or more.. [link to 204.2.104.196] |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33435073 United States 03/03/2013 12:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! Latest GFS calls for burying Wash DC under 8" or more.. [link to 204.2.104.196] Quoting: Luisport 8 inches is a good amount. Enough to shut things down for a couple days. |
oneLOVEsoulJAH User ID: 26915578 United States 03/03/2013 12:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! In another weird weather report, the humidity in my house is 8%???? Quoting: Astral Goat How the hell can it be that low/ Related to your post - my barometer will read dry and it can be snowing out. Often the weather does not relate to the barometer readings. The only time the barometer reads the same as the weather is when it is changing, raining (wet) or dry. I think it is related to the chemicals they are putting in the atmosphere. oneLOVE |
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Mr. Predictor Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 1032780 United States 03/03/2013 12:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! crap ... thought this thread would have pictures of hot weather babes !!! "If there is a new fascism, it won't come from skinheads and punks; it will come from people who eat granola and think they know how the world should be." - Brian Eno |
Ricky Retardo Sofa King We Todd Did User ID: 30667527 United States 03/03/2013 12:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33435073 United States 03/03/2013 12:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 12:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue Max GFS snowfall 12-15'' assuming 10:1 liquid equiv. thru 4-day forecast. [link to twitter.com (secure)] |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 12:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! the 12z GFS ensembles are showing a SC to NE affected area for wednesday's storm as to where this low could track..at this point, the upper air dynamics need to be sampled as this storm could affect a huge population [link to expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk] [link to expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! Saturday, March 2, 2013March 4-6 Potential Significant Winter Storm By Andrew at 10:43 AM Have upgraded storm title in accordance with latest model trends. Satellite imagery indicates the storm system in question is currently still mainly offshore of the west coast of North America. The enhanced infrared values over land, however, show that this system is at least partially sampled into the upper air network. This means that weather balloons can collect data from the storm that then enhances model forecast verification chances. This is a point that I will restate in the next several minutes that you read this. Recent observations of the latest model forecasts show that this system will be putting down some significant snowfall. The two images above show the 84 hour accumulated snowfall forecast for the GFS on top and NAM on bottom. As you can see, both models remain slightly different in placement of snowfall, and there are differences in snowfall amounts. The NAM model has more snowfall than the GFS, which is typical, since it has a wetter-than-normal bias. The GFS model and NAM model both indicate that there will be a heavy snowfall event in North Dakota, possibly into Minnesota. From there, we diverge into two different tracks. One track has heavy snow in Chicago and Milwaukee (essentially the NAM and European models), while the other track has the heaviest snow in Iowa and central Illinois (American model). Looking at animations of recent model runs, I have seen a clear northward trend in model forecasts, more towards the first track I mentioned in the above paragraph. Because the system is just now getting onshore and into the weather balloon network, changes in the models were bound to occur. However, this last-minute shift north is interesting in more than how the system is now just getting onshore. I could see how the system maintains this north track. It will be coming into the US from the Pacific Jet Stream, which is the jet stream in the North US. As a result, it is more likely than not to be bound to the northern jet stream (essentially the northern track) than completely separating and shifting south, in my opinion. I feel like the recent models are also counting this factor in, but the big question is where the snow will fall. In that aspect, I can't say I'm too sure just yet. I will need to see another 12-24 hours of snowfall forecasts before I'm confident enough to issue an accumulation map. However, I am confident enough to say that I can make a preliminary map, which is shown above. I may need to extend that 'Heaviest Snow' area further south and east with time, but I'm just not confident enough yet to bring it in that direction. Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! March 6-8 Potential Nor'easter By Andrew at 3:47 PM Note: This will not be a full-blown Nor'easter. Both major weather models are pointing towards a late-season partial Nor'easter that would be spit out of the Mid-Atlantic to dump snow in New England before moving out to sea. Shown above is the European model's (top) forecast for mean sea level pressure about 7 days out. The bottom image shows mean sea level pressure and precipitation, again for 7 days out. Analysis of the two forecasts reveals that they are similar in both strength and placement of this storm. To have both major weather modeling systems in agreement at this point in time is certainly a good sign for those wanting snow in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. With that agreement noted, I have opted to show the 48 hour accumulated snowfall forecast from Hour 156. We can clearly see a major hit of snow for Pennsylvania, New York and maybe a sliver of New Jersey, while coastal states are in the no-snow zone, as a typical Nor'easter will do. We see amounts exceeding one foot of snow, and these totals are centered in southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania. Major amounts of 6-12 inches are still found widely across New York and in the middle of Pennsylvania, as well as western Massachusetts and one or two other coastal states. Lower amounts below half a foot are found widely across the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Right now, such good model agreement is certainly a good sign for the above forecast to work out but we are still over 5 days away. That's a lot of time for things to change, and the system hasn't even gotten into the nation's upper air network, where the weather balloons can get data from the storm and put it into models to enhance forecasts. Despite all the caveats, I feel confident in my call for all in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic to keep one eye open on this system. It has good potential to bring heavy, wet snow to parts of the regions mentioned above, and must be monitored. Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 28513023 United States 03/03/2013 01:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! The storm next week is scheduled to occur about a week ahead of the 20th anniversary of the "Storm of the Century," otherwise known as the "Blizzard of '93." Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34908315 Makes me feel old ... 29 years ago? wow time flies In both models they are predicting I get slammed with heavy snow. Oh Dear God I pray not another blizzard like 93! We had no power, there was ice forming in the windows (as inside the house). Oh it was hell! Almost 2 feet of snow, and a few times whiteout conditions. We had no power for almost 24 hours and I live in the city. Would you believe it was so bad my neighbor literally walked up and down the blocks til she could find an electric truck. They felt so sorry for us they followed her down to our neighborhood and restored the power. A whole 24 hours? Yeah but I had my then living elderly grandparents to take care of! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC [link to twitter.com (secure)] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel [Animated GIF] Latest model guidance from the 12z GFS (American) computer model regarding Winter Storm #Saturn. [link to wxch.nl] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013 VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC ...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY... BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION. IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. |
Olea Yimoria User ID: 28513023 United States 03/03/2013 01:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! RyanMaueRyan Maue 1 min Quoting: Luisport I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC [link to twitter.com (secure)] Wish Granted!! (You do realize this is major sarcasm?) Last Edited by Olea Yimoria on 03/03/2013 01:23 PM |
Olea Yimoria User ID: 28513023 United States 03/03/2013 01:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION Quoting: Luisport NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013 VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC ...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY... BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION. IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. Can you translate that for the Northwestern foothills of NC? The Mountains are in my county but I live at the base of them. I can't translate "weatherspeak'. LOL Thanks |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! RyanMaueRyan Maue 1 min Quoting: Luisport I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC [link to twitter.com (secure)] Wish Granted!! (You do realize this is major sarcasm?) of course! Ryan has a great sense of humour! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013 VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC ...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY... BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION. IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Texan Buckeye User ID: 1533753 United States 03/03/2013 01:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION Quoting: Luisport NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013 VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC ...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY... BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION. IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. Can you translate that for the Northwestern foothills of NC? The Mountains are in my county but I live at the base of them. I can't translate "weatherspeak'. LOL Thanks Hi, OY. Pretty much what all that means is, they aren't sure where the line will be for rain/snow. They'll wait until the models are more in agreement. It looks like they are all predicting different areas for the change over. Keep an eye on your local reports and Luis's thread. He'll have it before the local, most likely. Luis is the best at finding and keeping up with the information. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 35493899 Portugal 03/03/2013 01:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! Hi, OY. Pretty much what all that means is, they aren't sure where the line will be for rain/snow. They'll wait until the models are more in agreement. It looks like they are all predicting different areas for the change over. Keep an eye on your local reports and Luis's thread. He'll have it before the local, most likely. Luis is the best at finding and keeping up with the information. Hi my dear how are you? Thank you for your words, but this is not my thread... i'm only helping! |
Texan Buckeye User ID: 1533753 United States 03/03/2013 01:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! Hi, OY. Pretty much what all that means is, they aren't sure where the line will be for rain/snow. They'll wait until the models are more in agreement. It looks like they are all predicting different areas for the change over. Keep an eye on your local reports and Luis's thread. He'll have it before the local, most likely. Luis is the best at finding and keeping up with the information. Hi my dear how are you? Thank you for your words, but this is not my thread... i'm only helping! Hi! All's well here! Crazy weather! We're going to hit 80 F today and 50 F on Tuesday. I'm glad to see you're helping, I didn't realize it wasn't your thread until now. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 9700822 United States 03/03/2013 01:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! March 6-8 Potential Nor'easter Quoting: Luisport By Andrew at 3:47 PM Note: This will not be a full-blown Nor'easter. Both major weather models are pointing towards a late-season partial Nor'easter that would be spit out of the Mid-Atlantic to dump snow in New England before moving out to sea. Shown above is the European model's (top) forecast for mean sea level pressure about 7 days out. The bottom image shows mean sea level pressure and precipitation, again for 7 days out. Analysis of the two forecasts reveals that they are similar in both strength and placement of this storm. To have both major weather modeling systems in agreement at this point in time is certainly a good sign for those wanting snow in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. With that agreement noted, I have opted to show the 48 hour accumulated snowfall forecast from Hour 156. We can clearly see a major hit of snow for Pennsylvania, New York and maybe a sliver of New Jersey, while coastal states are in the no-snow zone, as a typical Nor'easter will do. We see amounts exceeding one foot of snow, and these totals are centered in southern New York into eastern Pennsylvania. Major amounts of 6-12 inches are still found widely across New York and in the middle of Pennsylvania, as well as western Massachusetts and one or two other coastal states. Lower amounts below half a foot are found widely across the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Right now, such good model agreement is certainly a good sign for the above forecast to work out but we are still over 5 days away. That's a lot of time for things to change, and the system hasn't even gotten into the nation's upper air network, where the weather balloons can get data from the storm and put it into models to enhance forecasts. Despite all the caveats, I feel confident in my call for all in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic to keep one eye open on this system. It has good potential to bring heavy, wet snow to parts of the regions mentioned above, and must be monitored. Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de] But I thought most models only see this as a storm for Virginia! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31271979 United States 03/03/2013 01:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: BREAKING!!! WEATHER MODELS SHOWING INTENSE CUT-OFF LOW NOR'EASTER/BLIZZARD FOR NEXT WEEK!!! HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE!!! We have power outages here, burning wood makes sense, which is why I need to know when to start cutting and bringing it in. Quoting: Astral Goat What's it looking like for Mid Atlantic? I think it's still too far out. Do you have a wood burning stove or a fireplace? If so, has your chimney been cleaned recently? Just making sure so you don't burn your house down, lol. If you are serious about stock piling wood, I would start now to make sure the wood is dry enough to burn. Make sure you have extra newspapers and cardboard, too, to get it started and keep it going. Hubby chops up some for kindling as well. A little bit of work, but well worth the effort to have heat at least! Good luck, hope you folks don't get hit too hard down there! |