WARNING ~ POSSIBLE KILLSHOT INCOMING?! ~ VERY LARGE CME BLAST headed THIS WAY NOW!!! ~ NASA WARNINGS in effect!! Friday 15th March 2013

Well you have to realize to, the "Telegraph" wires effected by the Carrington Event were not even grounded. And even in the event that effected Canada and their power grid, there were pretty severe defects in their system already.

But with all that said, sure there are solar events that could disrupt our power grids (primarily because of defects in grounding or engineering) that don't quite meet up to Ed Dames version of the "Killshot"

But the term "Killshot" is derived from Ed Dames future view that said we would have a CME or series of CME's big enough to essentially strip away vital parts of our atmosphere...

I doubt seriously this will even cause too much disruption in our satellites much less strip anything away from our atmosphere, the initial radio burst just didn't indicate anything of that size.

This CME is actually good for us and our atmosphere, we need something to hit us occasionally to puff up our atmosphere in case a big one does hit...

On Mar 16 8:00pm UTC a CME with speed greater than 800km/s is predicted
Normal speed is 200- 400km/s - "Red zone" is 800km/s

www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html (ACE Solar Wind Page)
"Speed" greater than 800km/s is "Red zone"

www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/ (Solar Wind Prediction Page)
At Mar 16 8:00pm UTC
"Speed" is greater than 800km/s

Conclusion
NOAA classifies this CME as "Red zone"
Although it's M-Class, its high speed increases its effect (dynamic pressure - note significant density)

Based on my personal observations in the last year or so, I say this CME will have an effect on par with the largest CMEs we've seen lately. Probability suggests that before Mar 16 8:00pm UTC you, wherever you are, be on "high alert" for a day or so. Better safe than sorry. Be nice to each other.

You're reading that backwards bud, it's 2013 (year) Mar (Month) 15 (day)

LoL you noobs weren't around 11 yrs ago for the last solar max.

This will not be a killshot, maybe some radio interference and northern lights. that is all.

Haha....just copped that & edited it. :-)

Hardly SOLAR DOOM...But its cool that you are watching...

Guys, calm down...

This CME is not particularly dense or fast moving for it's scope of size...

The Radio burst (The flare) was an M1...that doesn't indicate huge problems for us...

Maybe, and I stress "Maybe", some cell phone dropping, and some satellite interference...

I seriously doubt there will be any significant power disruptions...

This is a good thing, we need to thicken and toughen up our atmosphere right now...

Well I know you Euro's do your damn dating backwards...just trying to help.

Why do threads like this get pinned? And should there not be a credibility rating amongst posters? OPs of threads like this should take major dings to reputation.

So how often does one of these come along with 800km+ speed?

Not that often.

Wasn't able to look through all 11 pages of this, but did Astromut comment on this?

If not, paging Astromut!!!!

Since when does a baby M1.2 eruption equate to "POSSIBLE KILLSHOT"?

No.

No need. This is not a major event and more like moderate. This is more of OP over exaggerating things. Auroras in the Northern most states is all that is coming out of this.

No, but highly knowledgeable suntards like Shadasonic, Geomagnetic Storm, and Da Fuq have made several comments. I recommend reading what they've said.

[link to www.tesis.lebedev.ru]

Some people seem to want to call EVERYTHING a "major event". That way, the one time out of a million that they're right, they can claim credit for their amazing predictive abilities.

I consider my knowledge of solar activity much higher than the average, hence the avatar. A Kp index of 6 should be anticipated and auroras in the northern U.S. states should be seen. No proton event. No doom.

You can take this to the bank...

Last Edited by MARsSPEED on 03/15/2013 11:57 AM

no dum dum...




A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) captured the CME just as it was leaving the sun:

The central location of the explosion combined with multiple views of the CME from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft suggest that the cloud is heading almost directly toward Earth. If so, an impact would likely occur in 2 to 3 days, setting the stage for weekend auroras. Stay tuned for refined estimates of the arrival time.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Here on GLP, you have to go over the top to get read with lots of BIG letters, asterisks and funny signs. Me - I talk sense about things that matter and people are too scared to reply. They know deep down I'm right, about everything.

I've never seen him post much about the sun or solar events.... You might want to check elsewhere...

this is nothing.

i think OP will shit himself when a Xflare comes...
and goes....

this happends all freaking time, and doesnt do shit with the grid!

1: OP creates a ridiculous thread title, for an M Class flare.

2: A mod pins it...god knows why?

3: 11 pages of wasted time and typing.

i understand many people are a bit thick & think the world is gonna end every 5 minutes & post brainless threads about it.

but i don't understand why Mods pin threads from these people?

a better thread title would have been: EARTH DIRECTED M CLASS CME - POSSIBLE EARTH EFFECTS? MARCH 15 2013

then people who are interested in solar stuff, know exactly whats going on and can discuss if they feel like it.

dont understand mods either over this.
must be a temp.

its not about the size of the solar flare at all
forget all about the size of the flare
the effects from any flare reached earth 8min after the event
Its all about the size and direction of the CME!
this CME was pretty big, and directly shot at Earth.


LDE M Flare in Progress - CME Watch In Effect!
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
(New Updates just added at link)

This is a significant event.
There IS a CME!
This IS Earth directed.
Due to the location of sunspot 1692 where this CME came from, this CME has a direct square shot at Earth.

The CME from This event is expected to arrive sometime in the afternoon to evening of Saturday March 16, 2013.

What an eventful weekend this is turning out to be!

all bolox, they never cause any problems so what get on with your boring lives and back to work you slaves

In case some of you haven't been watching cme's for a long period of time we usually get a significant earthquake within days of these stronger ones. Just sayin'.

I meant no offense by that...I'll add you to the list. I just recognize them from lurking on the solar watch thread.