The Game-Changing Events In The Middle East

PKK agrees to leader's peace-plan with Turkey
[link to news.yahoo.com]

This means that the Turkish Army will no longer be distracted by its 30-year front against the Kurdish rebels, both at home and in Northern Iraq. It gives the military space to focus its operations in other areas of interest.

Iraq-U.S relationship now complicated
[link to www.wtop.com]

This may mean that Iraq, having now cemented its own political power free of U.S interference, will act with more confidence and build its military back to pre-1991 standards. It is, after all, one of the most influential Arab powers in the region. Distance from U.S influence will change the dynamics of power in the region.

France, Britain to arm Free Syrian Army
[link to www.bbc.co.uk]

This is a game-changer. If France and Britain send military aid to the Syrian rebels, Russia will send heavy weapons to Assad, and be justified in doing so. If the EU chooses to interfere in the civil war in earnest, Putin will have no problem showing them how a good old-fashioned proxy war can turn out (given the right weaponry in the right places).


Afghan Government falls out with U.S
[link to www.upi.com]

This is important. As we know, the Caspian basin is a gold mine, and Afghan resources are no exception. If the Afghanis fall out of favour with the U.S (which appears to have been happening on a sliding scale over the last ten years) this means that once again Afghanistan could become an Islamic fortress, armed to the teeth and hostile to the U.S (if it ever abandoned that image to begin with).

U.S-Saudi alliance now uncertain
[link to www.al-monitor.com]

Think about what this could do to U.S oil security in the Middle East. Yes there is an abundance of oil in the Gulf of Mexico, but Saudi oil is still good oil, and relatively cheap. Once this doomed alliance begins to unravel in earnest we will see the Saudis move towards a more aggressive foreign policy. In tandem with this, pressure will mount on the monarchy (also doomed). By 2015, Saudi Arabia will be an Islamic Republic, led by the Muslim Brotherhood.