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The Game-Changing Events In The Middle East

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35918475
Australia
03/15/2013 04:48 PM
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The Game-Changing Events In The Middle East
PKK agrees to leader's peace-plan with Turkey
[link to news.yahoo.com]

This means that the Turkish Army will no longer be distracted by its 30-year front against the Kurdish rebels, both at home and in Northern Iraq. It gives the military space to focus its operations in other areas of interest.

Iraq-U.S relationship now complicated
[link to www.wtop.com]

This may mean that Iraq, having now cemented its own political power free of U.S interference, will act with more confidence and build its military back to pre-1991 standards. It is, after all, one of the most influential Arab powers in the region. Distance from U.S influence will change the dynamics of power in the region.

France, Britain to arm Free Syrian Army
[link to www.bbc.co.uk]

This is a game-changer. If France and Britain send military aid to the Syrian rebels, Russia will send heavy weapons to Assad, and be justified in doing so. If the EU chooses to interfere in the civil war in earnest, Putin will have no problem showing them how a good old-fashioned proxy war can turn out (given the right weaponry in the right places).


Afghan Government falls out with U.S
[link to www.upi.com]

This is important. As we know, the Caspian basin is a gold mine, and Afghan resources are no exception. If the Afghanis fall out of favour with the U.S (which appears to have been happening on a sliding scale over the last ten years) this means that once again Afghanistan could become an Islamic fortress, armed to the teeth and hostile to the U.S (if it ever abandoned that image to begin with).

U.S-Saudi alliance now uncertain
[link to www.al-monitor.com]

Think about what this could do to U.S oil security in the Middle East. Yes there is an abundance of oil in the Gulf of Mexico, but Saudi oil is still good oil, and relatively cheap. Once this doomed alliance begins to unravel in earnest we will see the Saudis move towards a more aggressive foreign policy. In tandem with this, pressure will mount on the monarchy (also doomed). By 2015, Saudi Arabia will be an Islamic Republic, led by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 35918475
Australia
03/15/2013 04:51 PM
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Re: The Game-Changing Events In The Middle East
Did I forget Egypt?

Egypt's favourable rating in U.S drops to 10 year low
[link to www.gallup.com]

I'm sure the feeling is the same in Egypt where the U.S is concerned. Since an Islamist came to power last year, Egypt has been sliding towards fundamentalism. Its military build-up and more hostile tone towards Israel will change the face of the Middle East alliance system.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 35918475
Australia
03/15/2013 04:54 PM
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Re: The Game-Changing Events In The Middle East
The upside of all this is that the U.S will gradually become more self-sufficient due to the lack of incentives to remain active in the Middle East.

Another factor is that (barring Syria-Arab Union ties) the Arabs are uniting under a common theme (modern Islamic mutual cooperation) and will probably cement these ties in the years to come as more secular despots fall.

Israel will have to deal with this obviously (Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE can no longer be called "allies" of Israel, if they ever were). I think this will force a change in thinking from Israeli voters, who will reject Hawkish governments for the sake of dialogue.

Opinion polls seem to suggest that most Israelis hold a dovish view of geopolitics at large, and don't want war. They've seen enough of it and are more concerned about social justice and getting corruption out of politics (see Avigdor Lieberman, Ehud Olmert, etc, etc, etc)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1929714
New Zealand
03/15/2013 05:09 PM
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Re: The Game-Changing Events In The Middle East
New Zealand has reactivated its nuclear weapons programme from stored plutonium stockpiles.
Australian cities are within strike range.
Sunyata

User ID: 14343956
United States
03/15/2013 05:13 PM
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Re: The Game-Changing Events In The Middle East
New Zealand has reactivated its nuclear weapons programme from stored plutonium stockpiles.
Australian cities are within strike range.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1929714


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