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Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 06:35 PM
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Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
You may not know this but in some places in the U.S. we are back to 2006 prices. That's right, we're right back where we were at the peak of this mess, but there's one huge difference. The banks are now completely in control of it and the forces of supply and demand are literally meaningless.

A few years back when the inventory starting gaining ground very few people watched the FED, government and banks moves to control inventory. The government put a crack down in place on the banks, the FED was buying mortgage back securities to lower interest rates and the banks were controlling inventory from short sale approvals to REO's. Fewer notice of defaults were given and today it's much less.

Now we have a MUCH BIGGER problem. With economies struggling in various parts of the country home prices are going up at a drastic rate. Now the impact may be smaller in small town America, but in places like San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, where prices are much higher, we are seeing 10% gains in periods as little as one month. So the dilemma for the banks now is to loosen up criteria for appraisals and banks continuing to loosen up their criteria for lending.

On the flip side FHA loans now have mortgage insurance in place for the life of the loan. So doing what AIG did, from a more subtle perspective.

So as prices continue to skyrocket in both high and low demand areas due to the huge lack of inventory, the banks are still controlling a majority of inventory through stalled notice of defaults and much slower than normal short sale approvals. But here comes the flip side. In spring, as these prices continue to go north, homeowners will now be positive equity and homes will come back on the market. This could derail the entire market, it's uncertain what affect this will have but we could see another interesting market meltdown, although highly doubtful with the amount of control the banks and FED currently have.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 06:44 PM
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San Francisco and I think Seattle. I hear it's rich investors and rich Asians buying those. However, San Francisco never really crashed, neither did NYC. Houses in NYC never really went below 2002 prices.

Pheonix is starting to make a comeback but I doubt they will get as high as they were. Florida is getting built up.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:08 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
bump
Useless Cookie Eater

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03/16/2013 07:10 PM

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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
FYI to anyone who doesn't know.....



NOTHING that caused the 2007 real estate derivatives bubble crash has been fixed.
...and we are STILL living in the economy created by that crash.


NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE.


rushhope

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 03/16/2013 07:28 PM
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:12 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
You may not know this but in some places in the U.S. we are back to 2006 prices. That's right, we're right back where we were at the peak of this mess, but there's one huge difference. The banks are now completely in control of it and the forces of supply and demand are literally meaningless.

A few years back when the inventory starting gaining ground very few people watched the FED, government and banks moves to control inventory. The government put a crack down in place on the banks, the FED was buying mortgage back securities to lower interest rates and the banks were controlling inventory from short sale approvals to REO's. Fewer notice of defaults were given and today it's much less.

Now we have a MUCH BIGGER problem. With economies struggling in various parts of the country home prices are going up at a drastic rate. Now the impact may be smaller in small town America, but in places like San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, where prices are much higher, we are seeing 10% gains in periods as little as one month. So the dilemma for the banks now is to loosen up criteria for appraisals and banks continuing to loosen up their criteria for lending.

On the flip side FHA loans now have mortgage insurance in place for the life of the loan. So doing what AIG did, from a more subtle perspective.

So as prices continue to skyrocket in both high and low demand areas due to the huge lack of inventory, the banks are still controlling a majority of inventory through stalled notice of defaults and much slower than normal short sale approvals. But here comes the flip side. In spring, as these prices continue to go north, homeowners will now be positive equity and homes will come back on the market. This could derail the entire market, it's uncertain what affect this will have but we could see another interesting market meltdown, although highly doubtful with the amount of control the banks and FED currently have.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35305854


where did you get this info from? I thought it was still at the 78% marker that MI was tossed out...
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:22 PM
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... But here comes the flip side. In spring, as these prices continue to go north, homeowners will now be positive equity and homes will come back on the market. This could derail the entire market, it's uncertain what affect this will have but we could see another interesting market meltdown, although highly doubtful with the amount of control the banks and FED currently have.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35305854


I guess you mean that banks that are stalling short sales will no longer be in control, as the homeowner can now sell for more than the loan and then repay the loan, all at his own convenience.

But that wouldn't cause a crash, only at most a slowing of the appreciation (if that). It's not just that there's a lack of inventory -- people do not lack places to live. It's psychology and it's turning positive in these markets.

It sounds like a real recovery, and it could be weak or it could be strong.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/16/2013 07:27 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
You may not know this but in some places in the U.S. we are back to 2006 prices. That's right, we're right back where we were at the peak of this mess, but there's one huge difference. The banks are now completely in control of it and the forces of supply and demand are literally meaningless.

A few years back when the inventory starting gaining ground very few people watched the FED, government and banks moves to control inventory. The government put a crack down in place on the banks, the FED was buying mortgage back securities to lower interest rates and the banks were controlling inventory from short sale approvals to REO's. Fewer notice of defaults were given and today it's much less.

Now we have a MUCH BIGGER problem. With economies struggling in various parts of the country home prices are going up at a drastic rate. Now the impact may be smaller in small town America, but in places like San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, where prices are much higher, we are seeing 10% gains in periods as little as one month. So the dilemma for the banks now is to loosen up criteria for appraisals and banks continuing to loosen up their criteria for lending.

On the flip side FHA loans now have mortgage insurance in place for the life of the loan. So doing what AIG did, from a more subtle perspective.

So as prices continue to skyrocket in both high and low demand areas due to the huge lack of inventory, the banks are still controlling a majority of inventory through stalled notice of defaults and much slower than normal short sale approvals. But here comes the flip side. In spring, as these prices continue to go north, homeowners will now be positive equity and homes will come back on the market. This could derail the entire market, it's uncertain what affect this will have but we could see another interesting market meltdown, although highly doubtful with the amount of control the banks and FED currently have.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35305854


where did you get this info from? I thought it was still at the 78% marker that MI was tossed out...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26082320


Read the new FHA stips. It's all changing in June.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:28 PM
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So all the "liberal" areas that some of you hate with a boiling passion are having 10% monthly real estate gains? Huh, must be something right going on there.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:29 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
FYI to anyone who doesn't know.....



NOTHING that caused the 2007 real estate derivatives bubble crash has been fixed.
...and we are STILL living in the economy created by that crash.


NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE.


:rushhope:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Some houses have been sold to stronger hands, population has increased, some inventory has been damaged or destroyed by unusually severe storms (e.g. Sandy) -- the fundamentals have moved.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:34 PM
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So all the "liberal" areas that some of you hate with a boiling passion are having 10% monthly real estate gains? Huh, must be something right going on there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8625642


Time will tell. Don't worry. When the socialist eperiment fails uncle Bamy has a nice warm bed for you and some soup. You'll be fine.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:35 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
there is no stinkin bubble
devil6
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:35 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
San Francisco and I think Seattle. I hear it's rich investors and rich Asians buying those. However, San Francisco never really crashed, neither did NYC. Houses in NYC never really went below 2002 prices.

Pheonix is starting to make a comeback but I doubt they will get as high as they were. Florida is getting built up.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25867801


What do you mean "Florida is getting built up"? The prices are rising and those empty condos are filling up? Or more empty condos are being built?
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:36 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
So all the "liberal" areas that some of you hate with a boiling passion are having 10% monthly real estate gains? Huh, must be something right going on there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8625642


Time will tell. Don't worry. When the socialist eperiment fails uncle Bamy has a nice warm bed for you and some soup. You'll be fine.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36137608


Haha. Think your head exploded since that makes no sense. How is "socialism" working in the "liberal" areas? Do you think they are empowering folk to purchase $1.1 million condos in SF? Face it, the "liberal" areas are better at free market.
Useless Cookie Eater

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03/16/2013 07:37 PM

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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
FYI to anyone who doesn't know.....



NOTHING that caused the 2007 real estate derivatives bubble crash has been fixed.
...and we are STILL living in the economy created by that crash.


NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE.


rushhope
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Some houses have been sold to stronger hands, population has increased, some inventory has been damaged or destroyed by unusually severe storms (e.g. Sandy) -- the fundamentals have moved.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33389306


I reiterate and clarify....

None of the political or economic policies that brought about the 2007 crash have been fixed or dealt with AT ALL.

NONE.

NOTHING.

ZIPPO.



In fact....somebody has made it even worse.

spending
Unixlike

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03/16/2013 07:43 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
So all the "liberal" areas that some of you hate with a boiling passion are having 10% monthly real estate gains? Huh, must be something right going on there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8625642


Time will tell. Don't worry. When the socialist eperiment fails uncle Bamy has a nice warm bed for you and some soup. You'll be fine.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36137608


Haha. Think your head exploded since that makes no sense. How is "socialism" working in the "liberal" areas? Do you think they are empowering folk to purchase $1.1 million condos in SF? Face it, the "liberal" areas are better at free market.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8625642


Free market? WTF you been smokin'?

How is dumping $85 trillion into the markets and gov't spending each month free market? How is the gov't buying up all the mortgages free market? How is......never fucking mind. I could keep going, but it won't change your mind.

Yes. Everything is better and as long as you are a liberal the future is bright. Now go get you a new home. Hell, get you some gov't entitlements to pay for it while you're at it.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 07:50 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
So all the "liberal" areas that some of you hate with a boiling passion are having 10% monthly real estate gains? Huh, must be something right going on there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8625642


Time will tell. Don't worry. When the socialist eperiment fails uncle Bamy has a nice warm bed for you and some soup. You'll be fine.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36137608


Haha. Think your head exploded since that makes no sense. How is "socialism" working in the "liberal" areas? Do you think they are empowering folk to purchase $1.1 million condos in SF? Face it, the "liberal" areas are better at free market.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8625642


Free market? WTF you been smokin'?

How is dumping $85 trillion into the markets and gov't spending each month free market? How is the gov't buying up all the mortgages free market? How is......never fucking mind. I could keep going, but it won't change your mind.

Yes. Everything is better and as long as you are a liberal the future is bright. Now go get you a new home. Hell, get you some gov't entitlements to pay for it while you're at it.
 Quoting: Unixlike


Wait, does that only happen in the "liberal" areas? No, so why aren't prices escalating elsewhere?
Anonymous Coward
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United States
03/16/2013 07:52 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
FYI to anyone who doesn't know.....



NOTHING that caused the 2007 real estate derivatives bubble crash has been fixed.
...and we are STILL living in the economy created by that crash.


NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE.


:rushhope:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Some houses have been sold to stronger hands, population has increased, some inventory has been damaged or destroyed by unusually severe storms (e.g. Sandy) -- the fundamentals have moved.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33389306


I reiterate and clarify....

None of the political or economic policies that brought about the 2007 crash have been fixed or dealt with AT ALL.

NONE.

NOTHING.

ZIPPO.



In fact....somebody has made it even worse.

:spending:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


But political and economic policies do not directly cause prices to go up and down. They influence supply and demand which determine the market clearing price.

Whatever the policies, even if the change in them is "zippo", the supply and demand relationship has changed, and prices are reflecting that. The policies apparently didn't have to change for a recovery to occur, because a recovery is occurring.

And your caps-lock key won't change that.
Unixlike

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03/16/2013 07:55 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
You're missing the point. The entire financial system is rigged. If it weren't so there would be no housing boom in liberal areas or elsewhere.

For the record, housing never really went bust in my conservative State. Things slowed down a little, but we've been growing the whole time. Doesn't matter either way. It's all smoke and mirrors. It'll come crashing down soon enough.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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03/16/2013 07:55 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
... But here comes the flip side. In spring, as these prices continue to go north, homeowners will now be positive equity and homes will come back on the market. This could derail the entire market, it's uncertain what affect this will have but we could see another interesting market meltdown, although highly doubtful with the amount of control the banks and FED currently have.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35305854


I guess you mean that banks that are stalling short sales will no longer be in control, as the homeowner can now sell for more than the loan and then repay the loan, all at his own convenience.

But that wouldn't cause a crash, only at most a slowing of the appreciation (if that). It's not just that there's a lack of inventory -- people do not lack places to live. It's psychology and it's turning positive in these markets.

It sounds like a real recovery, and it could be weak or it could be strong.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33389306


No supply with manipulated rates = disaster.
sTTsTTT

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03/16/2013 07:56 PM

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Conventional mortgages are also requiring either 20-percent down OR life-of-loan Private Mortgage Insurance.

FHA is 3.5-percent down, 2.25-percent Funding Fee, with an estimated life-of-loan Mortgage Insurance of .55-percent per year.

VA is 0-percent down, 2.15-percent Funding Fee, 0-percent Mortgage Insurance.

These figures are current as of 1 March 2013.

Mortgage Brokers are touting 7/1 Interest Only at 3.75-percent and 5/1 Interest Only at 3.5-percent loans. On the premis a potential buyer can "afford more home now".

It's a game Financiers are playing knowing people will default in those 5-to-7-years and they'll get to sell the property again raking in interest each time.

Most potential buyers do NOT realise a mortgage payment is almost pure interest for about the first 10-years. Very little goes toward the principle.

This is a timely topic for me as we're doing a Standard Sale VA Transferable. We're the only property of five available in the immediate area that's a Standard Sale. The others are Short Sales, Foreclosures, and REOs.

Prices have been climbing steadily in Northern Virginia. Not quite back to 2006 levels. It's projected for a 6-percent increase in 2013-2014 cycle, tho.
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Anonymous Coward
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United States
03/16/2013 08:02 PM
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Conventional mortgages are also requiring either 20-percent down OR life-of-loan Private Mortgage Insurance.

FHA is 3.5-percent down, 2.25-percent Funding Fee, with an estimated life-of-loan Mortgage Insurance of .55-percent per year.

VA is 0-percent down, 2.15-percent Funding Fee, 0-percent Mortgage Insurance.

These figures are current as of 1 March 2013.

Mortgage Brokers are touting 7/1 Interest Only at 3.75-percent and 5/1 Interest Only at 3.5-percent loans. On the premis a potential buyer can "afford more home now".

It's a game Financiers are playing knowing people will default in those 5-to-7-years and they'll get to sell the property again raking in interest each time.

Most potential buyers do NOT realise a mortgage payment is almost pure interest for about the first 10-years. Very little goes toward the principle.

This is a timely topic for me as we're doing a Standard Sale VA Transferable. We're the only property of five available in the immediate area that's a Standard Sale. The others are Short Sales, Foreclosures, and REOs.

Prices have been climbing steadily in Northern Virginia. Not quite back to 2006 levels. It's projected for a 6-percent increase in 2013-2014 cycle, tho.
 Quoting: sTTsTTT


Does that mean the VA provides the PMI for free? What a deal!

Mortgage brokers would only be willing to see defaults, as you say, if they expected the value of the collateral to be strong. What you're saying is actually bullish.

A 5/1 ARM is ALL interest for the first five years, then it reverts to a conventional fully amortized 25 year mortgage with rate adjustments every six months. That's how ours works. I'm guessing a 7/1 ARM is the same except the interest-only fixed rate period is 7 years, and the conventional period is 30 - 7 = 23 years.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 08:02 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
clappa
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 08:05 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
You're missing the point. The entire financial system is rigged. If it weren't so there would be no housing boom in liberal areas or elsewhere.

For the record, housing never really went bust in my conservative State. Things slowed down a little, but we've been growing the whole time. Doesn't matter either way. It's all smoke and mirrors. It'll come crashing down soon enough.
 Quoting: Unixlike


Oh I get that. But the "liberal" areas are taking off mean someone there is making money.
Unixlike

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03/16/2013 08:07 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
You're missing the point. The entire financial system is rigged. If it weren't so there would be no housing boom in liberal areas or elsewhere.

For the record, housing never really went bust in my conservative State. Things slowed down a little, but we've been growing the whole time. Doesn't matter either way. It's all smoke and mirrors. It'll come crashing down soon enough.
 Quoting: Unixlike


Oh I get that. But the "liberal" areas are taking off mean someone there is making money.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8625642


The bankers.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 08:08 PM
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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
Why would it come crashing down? People will always need a place to live and want a nice place to live. Even if the USD goes bust (not saying it will) the above will still be true.

Not saying "real estate can never go down", in fact I predicted the crash of 2008 because of the over-leverage that was going on. I expected it would have been years earlier. But now supply is down and babies and immigrants still exceeding deaths, the demand is always up.
Useless Cookie Eater

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03/16/2013 08:08 PM

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Re: Real Estate Bubble 2.0 - READ THIS
FYI to anyone who doesn't know.....



NOTHING that caused the 2007 real estate derivatives bubble crash has been fixed.
...and we are STILL living in the economy created by that crash.


NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE.


rushhope
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Some houses have been sold to stronger hands, population has increased, some inventory has been damaged or destroyed by unusually severe storms (e.g. Sandy) -- the fundamentals have moved.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33389306


I reiterate and clarify....

None of the political or economic policies that brought about the 2007 crash have been fixed or dealt with AT ALL.

NONE.

NOTHING.

ZIPPO.



In fact....somebody has made it even worse.

spending
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


But political and economic policies do not directly cause prices to go up and down. They influence supply and demand which determine the market clearing price.

Whatever the policies, even if the change in them is "zippo", the supply and demand relationship has changed, and prices are reflecting that. The policies apparently didn't have to change for a recovery to occur, because a recovery is occurring.

And your caps-lock key won't change that.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33389306


You spewed....

"But political and economic policies do not directly cause prices to go up and down."

You are kidding right???
Flunked out of basic high school economics?

Prime example below of why you are so full of shit your hair is brown.

bmoney

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 03/16/2013 08:09 PM
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 08:09 PM
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Private equity, REIT spinoffs, and other hedgies are buying the homes en masse. Look at what Blackstone (BX) did last week. These entities will keep the bid in the market as rates rise, they are 'locking the float'. No crash, it will be a country if renters. The federal reserve system will be in control of the housing and rent to you, word is born.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 08:12 PM
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I've been hearing that there are areas of the country where it is impossible to find a house or an apartment to rent - at any price.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 08:13 PM
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...


Some houses have been sold to stronger hands, population has increased, some inventory has been damaged or destroyed by unusually severe storms (e.g. Sandy) -- the fundamentals have moved.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33389306


I reiterate and clarify....

None of the political or economic policies that brought about the 2007 crash have been fixed or dealt with AT ALL.

NONE.

NOTHING.

ZIPPO.



In fact....somebody has made it even worse.

:spending:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


But political and economic policies do not directly cause prices to go up and down. They influence supply and demand which determine the market clearing price.

Whatever the policies, even if the change in them is "zippo", the supply and demand relationship has changed, and prices are reflecting that. The policies apparently didn't have to change for a recovery to occur, because a recovery is occurring.

And your caps-lock key won't change that.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33389306


You spewed....

"But political and economic policies do not directly cause prices to go up and down."

You are kidding right???
Flunked out of basic high school economics?

Prime example below of why you are so full of shit your hair is brown.

:bmoney:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


No in fact I have forgotten more about this than you ever knew. And Helicopter Ben can indeed affect the fundamentals of the housing market by manipulating the rates, and he's anticpated (not quite promised though) that rates will stay low for an extended period.

With the ECB and now the JCB doing very easy money policies, we would be remiss if we didn't continue. Yes the world and its currencies may spiral down the toilet, but even then people will still need places to live.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2013 08:16 PM
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I've been hearing that there are areas of the country where it is impossible to find a house or an apartment to rent - at any price.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33838111


I'm hardly that bullish. Maybe in the middle of the Mojave Desert or the bottom of the Salton Sea where there are no houses or apartments -- otherwise you can always get what you want if you'll pay enough.
Unixlike

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03/16/2013 08:16 PM
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Just because I need a place to live doesn't mean I can afford a $125K house at the bargain price of $190k that the last owner paid. Therein lies the problem doesn't it?

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