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Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?

 
ReVbo™
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User ID: 36513487
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03/19/2013 04:09 PM
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Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
I run a mortgage brokerage (The housing bust was the banks' fault for creating those stupid-ass loans and the government's for forcing us all to make them, so back off with your shots at the little guys. That's not what this is about).

Anyway, I got a pretty panicked call from one of my investors, a large West Coast wholesale lender, about an hour ago imploring me to lock all of my loans immediately because they anticipate a "significant rate hike" tomorrow, and when I asked if it was tied to the recent Cyprus unpleasantness, my account manager said he thinks so, but nobody told him exactly why.

My question is: Bernanke has said, on many occasions, he has no plans to raise rates anytime soon, and as we have seen mentioned, ad nauseum, for at least a couple years, to raise rates right now would be shooting our economy in the head. Did Cyprus change the game? I just can't see the Fed raising rates right now. Could this mess rock the market so much that rates float up on their own?

I'm about as panicked as I can be, after 5 years of watching this stuff every day, which is not very panicked given all the false starts, about the possibilities of Cyprus kicking off the derivative bomb we've all been looking for, but I have a hard time seeing our domestic interest rates going up much anytime soon.

What do y'all think?

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 03/19/2013 04:12 PM
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.
ReVbo™ (OP)

User ID: 36513487
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03/19/2013 04:24 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Anybody? Bueller? I know it's pretty low-level intel, but hey, this is about as exciting as this game gets.
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.
Hershey
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03/19/2013 04:26 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
I hope not
Scoop
User ID: 1555281
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03/19/2013 04:28 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
I'm a wholesale mortgage AE for a national lender. No news has trickled to me.
ReVbo™ (OP)

User ID: 36513487
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03/19/2013 04:30 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
I'm a wholesale mortgage AE for a national lender. No news has trickled to me.
 Quoting: Scoop 1555281


Yeah, it's just been this one lender. They're my biggest one, but I have 5 others, and haven't heard a word from any of them. Thanks for the input.
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.
Nickadeemus

User ID: 30688699
United States
03/19/2013 04:34 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Here is a really big OH SHIT moment. Rev, let me have a few minutes to process this and I will reply again. I just (knees weak), need a moment...

Nick®
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Nickadeemus

User ID: 30688699
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03/19/2013 04:37 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Checking with a Giant lender here in town. Just a few...

Nick®
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ReVbo™ (OP)

User ID: 36513487
United States
03/19/2013 04:40 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Checking with a Giant lender here in town. Just a few...

Nick®
thinkin
 Quoting: Nickadeemus


Oh, yeah. Forgot about your connection. Lemme know, brother.

popcorn
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.
Nyte
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User ID: 22394625
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03/19/2013 04:43 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Checking with a Giant lender here in town. Just a few...

Nick®
thinkin
 Quoting: Nickadeemus


And GLP holds it's breath...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35892595
United Kingdom
03/19/2013 04:44 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
I run a mortgage brokerage (The housing bust was the banks' fault for creating those stupid-ass loans and the government's for forcing us all to make them, so back off with your shots at the little guys. That's not what this is about).

Anyway, I got a pretty panicked call from one of my investors, a large West Coast wholesale lender, about an hour ago imploring me to lock all of my loans immediately because they anticipate a "significant rate hike" tomorrow, and when I asked if it was tied to the recent Cyprus unpleasantness, my account manager said he thinks so, but nobody told him exactly why.

My question is: Bernanke has said, on many occasions, he has no plans to raise rates anytime soon, and as we have seen mentioned, ad nauseum, for at least a couple years, to raise rates right now would be shooting our economy in the head. Did Cyprus change the game? I just can't see the Fed raising rates right now. Could this mess rock the market so much that rates float up on their own?

I'm about as panicked as I can be, after 5 years of watching this stuff every day, which is not very panicked given all the false starts, about the possibilities of Cyprus kicking off the derivative bomb we've all been looking for, but I have a hard time seeing our domestic interest rates going up much anytime soon.

What do y'all think?
 Quoting: ReVbo™



Bernanke isn't going to raise interest rates tomorrow or anytime this year.

The FED always warn the markets way before it happens to give them a chance to price it in, theres no way in hell he will spook the markets like that with the whole Cyprus thing going on.

He will be more dovish then ever come tomorrow.
He won't mention anything about tapering QE, or if he does, he will say it wont be till next year.

Bernanke is going to tell the markets exactly what they want to here.
Lady Jane SmithModerator
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User ID: 1333437
Netherlands
03/19/2013 04:45 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
They actually drifted down slightly today at my bank. Watching closely as I am considering another purchase.


I think they could move up in a knee jerk reaction, but I expect Uncle Bennie to move in push them back down.

They will want to avoid spooking the herd any more than necessary until "they" can get themselves positioned for contingencies.

bouncsheep
Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"Don't die on a small cross..." Saddletramp's Mom

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

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Nickadeemus

User ID: 30688699
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03/19/2013 04:47 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Checking with a Giant lender here in town. Just a few...

Nick®
thinkin
 Quoting: Nickadeemus


Oh, yeah. Forgot about your connection. Lemme know, brother.

popcorn
 Quoting: ReVbo™



She said she'd call me ASAP to discuss; she's been in meetings in VA all day. I'll get back to you as soon as humanly possible. I can't think of why a huge rate hike would help balance the equation. This would be a shot JWB style right in the proverbial temple.

Nick®
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Pure Life; Get it on...
ReVbo™ (OP)

User ID: 36513487
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03/19/2013 04:48 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
They actually drifted down slightly today at my bank. Watching closely as I am considering another purchase.


I think they could move up in a knee jerk reaction, but I expect Uncle Bennie to move in push them back down.

They will want to avoid spooking the herd any more than necessary until "they" can get themselves positioned for contingencies.

bouncsheep
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Thanks, Jane. That's what I've been thinking. I don't know what has these guys so spooked, but I thought it was worth discussing. Either way, this Cyprus thing smells really bad.
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.
Lady Jane SmithModerator
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User ID: 1333437
Netherlands
03/19/2013 04:49 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
They actually drifted down slightly today at my bank. Watching closely as I am considering another purchase.


I think they could move up in a knee jerk reaction, but I expect Uncle Bennie to move in push them back down.

They will want to avoid spooking the herd any more than necessary until "they" can get themselves positioned for contingencies.

bouncsheep
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Thanks, Jane. That's what I've been thinking. I don't know what has these guys so spooked, but I thought it was worth discussing. Either way, this Cyprus thing smells really bad.
 Quoting: ReVbo™


Agree. This may certainly be viewed as the trigger when we reflect back in several years. If we are able to reflect back, that is.
Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"Don't die on a small cross..." Saddletramp's Mom

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Killer Bunny mockingjay
Nickadeemus

User ID: 30688699
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03/19/2013 04:55 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
They actually drifted down slightly today at my bank. Watching closely as I am considering another purchase.


I think they could move up in a knee jerk reaction, but I expect Uncle Bennie to move in push them back down.

They will want to avoid spooking the herd any more than necessary until "they" can get themselves positioned for contingencies.

bouncsheep
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Thanks, Jane. That's what I've been thinking. I don't know what has these guys so spooked, but I thought it was worth discussing. Either way, this Cyprus thing smells really bad.
 Quoting: ReVbo™


Agree. This may certainly be viewed as the trigger when we reflect back in several years. If we are able to reflect back, that is.
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Man...Granted, I'm sleepy, but you just knocked the crap out of my desensedoomed brain. Very surreal to think of reflection not being possible. Good to see you M'Lady. Looking dashing and dapper as usual.

Nick®
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No More Lies

User ID: 1707881
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03/19/2013 04:56 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Doesn't sound good...

shtf
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2013 05:00 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
They actually drifted down slightly today at my bank. Watching closely as I am considering another purchase.


I think they could move up in a knee jerk reaction, but I expect Uncle Bennie to move in push them back down.

They will want to avoid spooking the herd any more than necessary until "they" can get themselves positioned for contingencies.

:bouncsheep:
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Thanks, Jane. That's what I've been thinking. I don't know what has these guys so spooked, but I thought it was worth discussing. Either way, this Cyprus thing smells really bad.
 Quoting: ReVbo™


Agree. This may certainly be viewed as the trigger when we reflect back in several years. If we are able to reflect back, that is.
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


And then everyone will wonder how such a small country took down the global economy, for which capitalism and democracy will get the blame.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2013 05:01 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
The only thing I could think of to set off a rise in interest rates would be some kind of domino reaction in derivatives disney land. Maybe related to interest rate derivatives?

If the banks figure they might lose on interest rate bets they made, I suppose it's possible they would raise rates. But honestly, I can't think of any other reason they would do that.

.
ThirdEyeBrown

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03/19/2013 05:01 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
bout time
ThirdEyeBrown
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2013 05:03 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
"Significant rate hike" when the rate is 0% already?

Don't think so.


I wonder why the euro hasn't tanked against the dollar?

The FED still keeping that thing alive still?

Till derivatives do us part...


The Law of Compound interest has driven debt levels to totally unsustainable levels, the collapse isn't a matter of 'if,' only 'when.'


Come on, OP, blaming the banks & the governments for making bad loans caused this mess? Takes 2 to make a contract, and people flipping houses and others who thought real estate prices would never go down are all part of the larger equation.

Nevertheless, sooner or later the bull bond market is going to come home to roost, and falling bond prices will raise interest rates on market forces alone, irrespective of Ben's helicopter.
ReVbo™ (OP)

User ID: 36513487
United States
03/19/2013 05:06 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
"Significant rate hike" when the rate is 0% already?

Don't think so.


I wonder why the euro hasn't tanked against the dollar?

The FED still keeping that thing alive still?

Till derivatives do us part...


The Law of Compound interest has driven debt levels to totally unsustainable levels, the collapse isn't a matter of 'if,' only 'when.'


Come on, OP, blaming the banks & the governments for making bad loans caused this mess? Takes 2 to make a contract, and people flipping houses and others who thought real estate prices would never go down are all part of the larger equation.


Nevertheless, sooner or later the bull bond market is going to come home to roost, and falling bond prices will raise interest rates on market forces alone, irrespective of Ben's helicopter.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36417394


They certainly did their part, but they wouldn't have been able to do their part if Wall St wasn't begging to buy any liar loan they could find, and Washington wasn't ordering them to make every liar they could find a loan.
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.
calx
Spring is here!! :)

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03/19/2013 05:06 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
They actually drifted down slightly today at my bank. Watching closely as I am considering another purchase.


I think they could move up in a knee jerk reaction, but I expect Uncle Bennie to move in push them back down.

They will want to avoid spooking the herd any more than necessary until "they" can get themselves positioned for contingencies.

bouncsheep
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Thanks, Jane. That's what I've been thinking. I don't know what has these guys so spooked, but I thought it was worth discussing. Either way, this Cyprus thing smells really bad.
 Quoting: ReVbo™


Agree. This may certainly be viewed as the trigger when we reflect back in several years. If we are able to reflect back, that is.
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


And then everyone will wonder how such a small country took down the global economy, for which capitalism and democracy will get the blame.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20221354


It only took the assassination of the Archduke of Austria to start a world war! :O
"Birds of a shit feather flock together." - Jim Lahey, trailer park supervisor of the year.
ReVbo™ (OP)

User ID: 36513487
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03/19/2013 05:06 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Thanks for the pin. cheers
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2013 05:06 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
laugh Oh yes they made me do it excuse !
Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
03/19/2013 05:08 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Raising interest rates in the USA to 0.75% p/year would be enough to destroy the whole world economy in a matter of weeks...


ohyeah
Olea Yimoria

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03/19/2013 05:11 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Op did your friend give a clue to how much of a percentage Benhanky was considering?
Considering I get a lousy .01 percent at the bank, how much do you think?
The worst global pandemic right now is stupidity. Worse, no one is searching for a cure..
No More Lies

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03/19/2013 05:12 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
FOMC will release decision at 2 tomorrow.
Olea Yimoria

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03/19/2013 05:12 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
FOMC will release decision at 2 tomorrow.
 Quoting: No More Lies


Thanks
The worst global pandemic right now is stupidity. Worse, no one is searching for a cure..
Nickadeemus

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03/19/2013 05:13 PM

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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Thanks for the pin. cheers
 Quoting: ReVbo™


Well deserved. Well Given.

Nick®
cheers
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Anonymous Coward
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Brazil
03/19/2013 05:14 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Meanwhile in Brazil, we have a benchmark interest rate of 7,25% and that's a record low, and bankers are pressing the government to raise it!


dance
ReVbo™ (OP)

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03/19/2013 05:14 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Hike Tomorrow?
Op did your friend give a clue to how much of a percentage Benhanky was considering?
Considering I get a lousy .01 percent at the bank, how much do you think?
 Quoting: Olea Yimoria


Sorry. Sure didn't.
Rev. 21:4 He will wipe every tear from their eyes. There will be no more death or mourning or crying or pain, for the old order of things has passed away.

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