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Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?

 
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
03/20/2013 08:36 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
who will be the next victim to be sucked in and spit out, an empty shell of its former self?

abduct
An Ordinary Greek
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Greece
03/20/2013 08:42 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
IMF, the same organization that helped starting the dissolution of Yugoslavia.
hominid
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Slovakia
03/20/2013 08:51 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
bump
 Quoting: insertfunnyusername


They don't stop! redface
 Quoting: Luisport


i am sure they never will.. they are just sick, no logic there... Idol1
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 08:54 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
The tiny island nation of Malta is next. It's banking sector is huge compared to the nations' GDP - second to Cyprus I think. Lots of money is deposited in Malta from arab countries too because it is historically quite a neutral place. Thing is though that it is also in the Euro.

Malta, mark my words.
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 09:00 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
The tiny island nation of Malta is next. It's banking sector is huge compared to the nations' GDP - second to Cyprus I think. Lots of money is deposited in Malta from arab countries too because it is historically quite a neutral place. Thing is though that it is also in the Euro.

Malta, mark my words.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23992770


5abanana25a
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
03/20/2013 09:20 AM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
The crisis in Cyprus is a good opportunity to take a step back and remind ourselves how incredibly broken the Eurozone remains.

For one thing, the whole reason the Eurozone has these sovereign debt crises is because while the countries share a common currency, they don't share a common Treasury. So it is literally possible for a country to just run out of cash. That can't happen in a country like the US or the UK, which are capable of creating their own money

And then even beyond that, the single monetary policy isn't helpful. The periphery needs much more stimulus, whereas Germany is worried (perhaps fairly) about bubbles, as everyone rushes cash into its borders. Plus, Germany has virtually no unemployment, so it sees no need for stimulative measures.

Economist and professor David Beckworth looked at the big picture on Monday, pointing out how the system needs some serious structural reforms to function properly.

One reform is to alter ECB policy so that it actually tries to stabilize nominal spending for the entire Eurozone, not just Germany. Since it inception, ECB monetary policy has been biased toward Germany at the cost of destabilizing the Eurozone periphery. This could be fixed by having the ECB abandoned its flexible inflation target and adopt a NGDP level target. Another complementary reform, would be to create meaningful fiscal transfers in the Eurozone similar in scale and scope to the United States. Both of these options, however, would face stiff opposition from Germany. For the former would require temporarily higher inflation than Germany desires and the former would require large fiscal commitments for the Eurozone from Germany. Neither is likely to happen.

The Eurozone made its first step towards a true structural reform last summer, when the ECB announced its "OMT" program, which begins to establish the central bank as a lender of last resort, backstopping governments that get into trouble.

That's cooled the crisis a lot (reducing government borrowing costs) but the catch is that to be eligible, countries have to put on handcuffs (reforms, austerity, etc.) and that's sent the economies of various countries right into the toilet.

Here, for example, is the unemployment rate in Italy.






Trading Economics


That's hardly an unusual looking chart.

Outside of Germany, pretty much every economic indicator in the Eurozone just gets worse and worse.

While Mario Draghi rightly can claim to be the world's #1 central banker (given the difficult situation he faces, and his limited mandate) leadership remains poor.

In the wake of the Italian election -- wherein incumbent Prime Minister Mario Monti received a pathetic 10% of the vote -- he was praised for having taken the tough unpopular austerity decisions that allowed interest rates to fall as they have. In fact this was nonsense. Interest rates fell because of the ECB. Austerity and reform didn't accomplish squat on their own.

But the beatings will continue until morale improves.

Against the backdrop of bad theory and bad policies, Europe has engaged in a series of ad hoc rescues and bailouts that tamp down flareups where they occur.

And heretofore Europe has actually gotten lucky. All the big votes have gone Europe's way.

Remember all those Greek austerity votes? They always passed by the skin of their teeth.

Remember the German Supreme Court decision on the legality of the bailouts? It went Europe's way.

Remember when Slovenia was the center of attention, because it came close to not approving the expanded bailout plan? Slovenia eventually played ball.

And then of course the public elections always turned out okay. In Greece last summer, the conservative New Democracy party narrowly edged out the leftist SYRIZA party. Had SYRIZA won, it would have set up an epic clash, as SYRIZA was not going to go along with the austerity that was demanded by the outside.

It looks like Europe's luck is running out.

In Italy last month, the election ended inconclusively. The center-left coalition failed to get enough votes (it seems) to form a government, and there might need to be new elections.

And then it finally happened in Cyprus yesterday. A bailout vote just failed. It didn't just fail. It didn't even garner one yea vote.

And the whole reason Cyprus is faced with this awful bailout proposal (which taxes depositors) is because if Cyprus were to just get a grant or a blank check without brutal conditions, then that couldn't pass the German parliament. So there are really two parliaments here that are ready to vote 'no' on something.

This has always been the risk to the system, that a vote would go wrong. And now it's happened.


Read more: [link to www.businessinsider.com]
Anonymous Coward
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United Kingdom
03/20/2013 09:24 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Cyprus, slovenia, who cares!


They are nothing countries.


When its starts being France, Germany, Switzerland, then be concerned.
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 09:32 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
and this is just the beginning of world banking carsh....OMG this is frightening.
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 09:41 AM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
zerohedge‏@zerohedge7 min
Euro: Currency Or Prison? [link to www.zerohedge.com] …
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 09:41 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
The tiny island nation of Malta is next. It's banking sector is huge compared to the nations' GDP - second to Cyprus I think. Lots of money is deposited in Malta from arab countries too because it is historically quite a neutral place. Thing is though that it is also in the Euro.

Malta, mark my words.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23992770


That makes sense actually. Piss off the Russians first, and then the whole middle east...again.
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 09:44 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Cyprus was probably more like the canary in the coalmine than the snowball starting at the top of the slope.

William Black said in an interview about 4 years ago it might start in Eastern Europe, maybe Hungary, etc.

Watch Eastern Europe.

damned

.
Anonymous Coward
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Hungary
03/20/2013 09:49 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
The tiny island nation of Malta is next. It's banking sector is huge compared to the nations' GDP - second to Cyprus I think. Lots of money is deposited in Malta from arab countries too because it is historically quite a neutral place. Thing is though that it is also in the Euro.

Malta, mark my words.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23992770


when will it be the time for Luxembourg?
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 09:51 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Seize the Peons bank accounts !
Hard Eight

User ID: 35278639
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03/20/2013 09:59 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
any russian mob money here??

5a
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34560225

Where, D.C.? Tons
Texas has yet to learn submission to any oppression, come from what source it may.
Sam Houston

"The beauty of the Second Amendment is that it will not be needed until they try to take it."
Thomas Jefferson
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 10:02 AM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
zerohedge‏@zerohedge1 min
Russia's Medvedev compares Cypriot deal to Soviet expropriation - FAZ
Anonymous Coward
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San Marino
03/20/2013 10:12 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Monetary unions are not susteinable, especially when you have different economies as in Europe, Eurozone will brake-up soon or later....

If you watch, Germany and other northern countries have grown since Euro, instead peripheal countries have gone broken: Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland, Slovenia, Portugal, Cyprus...

this is no coincidence, the common currency has widen economies and competitivness of european countries, moreover it has started a movement of capitals that has brought southern countries in private debt, that then has become public debt when banks had to be saved....

if you want to know more, go and search for Eurozone and the Frenkel cycle.....

France has been saved so far, but in truth it has the same (if not more) problems than the other countries, simply this problems have still not presented....France is a bomb...soon or later will explode.....

Euro has been a political choice, not an economic one, it should have been the last step to a Europan Union, instead it has been the first one on Germany and France command, they know how it would be ended, but they have gone straight and they have fooled all the other countries....

Now it's a real cage....and no one want lo leave cause MSM make terrorism about consequences, but eventually Eurozone will brake up naturally, maybe in a bad way........
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 11:33 AM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Germany destroys the world once again!!
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
03/20/2013 11:35 AM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Germany destroys the world once again!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34276055


ohyeah
KipKat

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Netherlands
03/20/2013 11:46 AM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Liechtenstein?
Seelenheilkunde

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Romania
03/20/2013 12:02 PM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Liechtenstein?
 Quoting: KipKat


Let's say Switzerland, where is the highest money laundering in the world, what do you think ?
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
03/20/2013 12:06 PM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Liechtenstein?
 Quoting: KipKat


Let's say Switzerland, where is the highest money laundering in the world, what do you think ?
 Quoting: Seelenheilkunde


well that will be like a nuke bomb!
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 12:09 PM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
zerohedge‏@zerohedge47 s
Total debt: $16,749,269,587,407.53, up $13 billion, or 2 broke Cypruses, since yesterday
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 12:27 PM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
bump
 Quoting: insertfunnyusername


They don't stop! redface
 Quoting: Luisport


___..____.._____
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 12:33 PM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Max Keiser goes berserk live on air, almost does the unthinkable.

[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 01:10 PM
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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
It's hard to beleive the people at the IMF will throw anyone under the bus, to save this stupid, fraud ridden, debt based, fractional reserve, world banking system they have put in place, And why? because they have all become millionairs from the system they are trying to save.
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 01:36 PM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
Liechtenstein?
 Quoting: KipKat


Let's say Switzerland, where is the highest money laundering in the world, what do you think ?
 Quoting: Seelenheilkunde


well that will be like a nuke bomb!
 Quoting: Luisport


zerohedge‏@zerohedge40 s
Pop Quiz Answer: Presenting Countries "X" And "Y" [link to www.zerohedge.com] …
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 01:38 PM

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Re: Slovenian Banks Need Capital Boost, IMF Says... Slovenia next?
In our pop quiz article earlier today, we asked the question of which two countries - notable among the uber-wealthy Russian oligarch class - are approaching the same ratio of financial assets to GDP as seen in both Cyprus and Iceland, and which has been blamed for the recent onslaught against Cypriot savers.

We were not surprised to note that the vast majority of readers figured out that one country, noted as X, was Switzerland, where as we have discussed over the years, just two banks, UBS and Credit Suisse alone have three times more assets than the total Swiss GDP. The top 10 Swiss banks with total assets as reported by Bloomberg are shown on the chart below:

This implies that, as has been known for decades, Switzerland is one mega-banked country, and it should come as no surprise to anyone that the vast majority of bank liabilities are in the form of deposits.

Are Swiss deposits as a fraction of total liabilities as high as Cyprus? The full, accurate breakdown is not very clear, especially since many banks are rather "loose" with how they define their liabilities out of legacy deposit secrecy concerns. However, it is accurate to say that when it comes to funding, the Swiss financial system does have a preponderance of deposits on the right side of the balance sheet. Does that make deposit tax levy in the country that was formerly synonymous with bank secrecy, and where having a bank account used to be a symbol of wealth and success, feasible? Absolutely. Does it mean it will actually happen? We have no idea. But then again nobody had any idea a week ago that Cyprus would shock its depositors on Saturday with news that up to 9.9% of their savings would be expropriated.

What would make a Swiss bank tax levy it more likely is if, following ongoing exposure of tax evasion in Switzerland or for any other reason, depositors decided to pull their money out of banks in bulk, forcing a funding collapse and a vicious financial system contractionary cycle, which might then force the local government to follow through with a Cypriot type act. It certainly would not be unprecedented: it was only several months ago that various Swiss banks implemented negative deposit rates. All a deposit tax levy would do would be to collapse the ongoing "taxation" from negative rates in a one-time event.

Finally, with Russian oligarchs a key source of marginal funding of Swiss deposit accounts in the past several years, should the witch hunt against Russian wealth escalate beyond merely the Eurozone, due to political pressure or otherwise, it would make this particular class of Swiss bank clients especially vulnerable to an unwelcome, and unexpected (but long ago predicted) tax on their wealth.

So much for country X Switzerland.

When moving to country Y, we were surprised to see only two readers suggest, correctly, that it was Singapore, with a total financial asset to GDP rate of 7.7x.

Although, in retrospect, it is perhaps not all that surprising, and it means that Singapore is doing a great job of preserving the fact that it is now the defacto target of the world's uber wealthy depositors, who no longer have faith in the Swiss banking system, mostly due to the loss of banking secrecy which for centuries made Switzerland the preferred target of accrued wealth from around the world. In other words, Singapore is doing precisely what its depositors want it to do - stay off everyone's radar as much as possible.

Below, again from Bloomberg, is a breakdown of the top Singapore banks by assets. Here, even more so, it becomes obvious just how concentrated the assets are among the top 5 banks, which collectively have nearly 7x more assets than the host nation's GDP.

We fully expect the asset-to-GDP ratio of Singapore's financial system to soar in the coming months, as more ultra-wealthy "private clients" from around the world reallocate their savings from Switzerland, certainly from the Europe's periphery, and now - even from Europe's core in the aftermath of Cyprus, and into Singapore very much under the radar banks and financial institutions.

And while the Swiss confiscation risk is certainly out there, it is certainly anyone's guess if, when and under what conditions even the last bastion of savers, Singapore, will proceed with blatant wealth expropriation. If that happens, it is unclear where in the world, if anywhere, there will be a safe place fo inert capital, that is not invested in assorted risky assets (or is buried underground).

Which perhaps has been be the goal all along - after all the one thing the Keynesians in the world are suffering from (and are constantly shocked by) is the record low velocity of money. What better way to boost said velocity, and monetary circulation, than by making depositors themselves doubt the sanctity of their cash held in a bank.... Any bank, anywhere in the world.
[link to www.zerohedge.com]

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