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Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!

 
the_herbalist

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03/25/2013 12:58 PM
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Re: Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!
Not this Lame Ass DOOm again......it is posted everyday going back for at least 3 years.

Oh my.....a 2.0 tremor !!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7128223


I find this boing now, there is no doom and very little to worry about out there.
I speak to my friend in Tenerife a few times a week, either by call, text or Facebook. Yes, there is talk of there being an eruption, but nowhere near way it's being perceived here. At the very worst case scenario a new island may be born, but even that is considered unlikely.

He has also spoken to some Tenerife natives who have told him that the quakes that people are reporting here ( and not felt by anyone in Canarias I might add), have been occurring for centuries, the whole group of islands was born out of volcanic eruptions, so of course there will be some low level seismic activity. However, there is as much chance of what is talked about here happening as there is Mount Teide turning Tenerife into Pompeii, as for effecting the USA.....that's about as likely as us all becoming inhabitants of Mars next week.....
Luckily I'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug regiment to keep my mind limber.
:Dudeism:
Lady J USA

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03/25/2013 01:06 PM

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Re: Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!
bump I just watched mega disasters on h2 and they were talking about the chances of a mega tsunami on the east coast
Lady J USA
the_herbalist

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03/25/2013 01:28 PM
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Re: Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!
[link to www.lapalma-tsunami.com]
Luckily I'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug regiment to keep my mind limber.
:Dudeism:
the_herbalist

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03/25/2013 02:00 PM
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Re: Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!
Three scientists say that half of La Palma will fall into the sea and cause a tsunami that will wipe out much of the population of the eastern seaboard of the USA.
They are wrong.
La Palma will not slide into the sea.
Even if it did, it wouldn't cause a tsunami that would reach the USA
Why are they saying it will?
Almost certainly to obtain funding for their own research projects.

The worlds scientific experts have shown the "research" by Ward/Day/McGuire to be incorrect, unproven and wildly exaggerated both in the Horizon program and subsequent interviews. It is not based on scientific facts.
New York has nothing to fear from La Palma. The island is stable. Only a substantial increase in height could cause it to become unstable and at the current rate of growth that would take at least 10,000 years,
This news spoils the fun for the media, disaster-mongers and hazard industry, but fortunately for the supposed potential victims and the people of the Canary Islands there is nothing to worry about on La Palma.
The content of the BBC Horizon television program has been disproved by fellow scientists and the even the BBC itself has published a partial retraction under the title "Tidal wave threat "over-hyped"
Read the facts about the situation here:
 

FACT: The Tsunami Society rightly accuses Ward/Day/McGuire of scaremongering
The Tsunami Society has issued a press statement to counteract the effect of the scaremongering reports.
Their aim is to correct misleading or invalid information released to public about this hazard.
The Tsunami Society states about the Discovery Channel program:
'We would like to halt the scaremongering from these unfounded reports."
Source: The Tsunami Society

THEY SAY: The "The block dropped 4 meters in 1949"!.
The suggestion that 'the block' of rock (25km long, 2-3km deep and 15-20km wide) suddenly sank by 4 metres in 1949 is an absurd lie. Just one look at the coastal villages of Puerto Naos, Tazacorte, El Remo, Bombilla and Playa Nueva is enough to disprove this ridiculous lie. These villages are all situated just above sea level and would have disappeared under the sea.
The block didn't sink, the villages didn't sink. SOME OF THE AREAS 30,000+ INHABITANTS WOULD HAVE NOTICED.
Ward/Day/McGuire suggest that the entire block moved 4metres vertically in relation to the rest, if that were true it would leave a very clearly visible vertical displacement fault. This evidence just does not exist. The line they suggest for the edge of the block is 40kms long. Along 37.5km of this line there is NO EVIDENCE of any movement at all. They are lying about 37.5km of the 40km line.
Or lets measure it by surface area. The surface area of the supposed block (above the sea) is about 135km2, there is evidence of movement in area of roughly 0.25km2.
What the real scientists reported was a surface fissure 2.5km long. A fissure is NOT a vertical displacement. The real scientists stated that there was no evidence to indicate that it was anything more than a localised surface phenomenon created by the lava flows nearby.
If 'the block' dropped by 4 meters then there must be a surface crack along the 2 sides. These cracks DO NOT EXIST. There is no fault line. The suggestion that the block fell is a deliberate falsehood. They found 'a crack in the paint' but Ward/Day/McGuire claim that 'the whole wall is about to fall down' !!!

THEY SAY: Mountain flank collapses have caused long-distance Mega-tsunamis.
The three known instances of similar events, Krakatoa, Santorin and Lituya Bay, Alaska, created local damage but a tsunami did not reach any distant shores. Claims that the El Hierro collapse caused problems in the Bahamas are denied by scientists in the Bahamas.
Ward/Day/McGuire ignored proven scientific facts and start the Horizon program by stating that the Lituya Bay, Alaska incident caused a mega tsunami. It didn't, and they knew it. Lander, and P. Lockridge stated clearly that the wave was confined to a small bay and dissipated quickly in the open waters of the Gulf of Alaska.

DAMNING EVIDENCE: Using scientific computer modelling the researchers from the Technical University of Delft tried to simulate the collapse of La Palma and an ensuing Tsunami. Even using extreme unrealistic data and ignoring many dampening effects they could not create a significant tsunami.
The Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands is a highly respect University and Technical Research Institute.
Their evidence leads one to compare the BBC Horizon program and the so called research by Ward/Day/McGuire with a Monty Python sketch. The only way La Palma is going to fall into the ocean is if the gigantic Monty Python cartoon foot kicks it there!

LIE: The Horizon report suggests that evidence was gathered from the water galleries (tunnels) on La Palma.
ALL the La Palma galleries are in the Caldera de Taburiente in the North of the island. The Caldera has a completely different structure and cannot provide valid supporting evidence.

MISREPRESENTATION: The Horizon report shows 4 huge vertical walls of rock within the Cumbre Vieja.
One of the graphics clearly shows 4 vertical columns of rock which, it is claimed, would trap water and create the explosion needed to trigger a landslide. The walls of rock appear to be about half a kilometer wide, at least 4 km deep and according to their own theory would need to be solid, continuous, 25km long and run parallel for all of that 25km.
Curiously, none of these huge walls of rock were encountered by the construction workers who built the 2 road tunnels which have been drilled through the Cumbre Vieja.
Curiously, none of the 4 walls of rock actually come to the surface ANYWHERE, not even where the island plunges down into the sea.
Curiously, the authors own scientific report over the west side of the island categorically states that nothing is known about the structure under the Cumbre Vieja and suggests that someone investigates it. Yet they expect us to believe their speculation that these huge columns exist.
Conclusion ? The 4 vertical walls of rock are a fabrication and only exist in the Horizon program.

THEY SAY: La Palma will drop as one massive block into the ocean.
All the measurements used to define the size of the possible block that might fall into the sea have been grossly exaggerated.
The length, width, depth and speed are all fictional.
The physical evidence for the length of the block is 4km, yet in the model they used 15 to 25 km.
The depth is suggested as 2 to 3km below the surface. The report itself states that there is no evidence for any form of deep fracture. The figure used is fictitious and was obviously chosen because without a large figure the whole La Palma Tsunami theory is exposed as a fake.
Width is given as 15 to 20 km. Again there is no hard evidence to support this fiction.
The speed of the collapse used in the model is not possible under normal circumstances. An unusual form of natural lubrication would be needed to achieve the speeds used in the model. This natural lubrication is NOT present under La Palma. An immense force would be needed to trigger the movement of the so-called block and these explosive pressures could not be produced on La Palma.

THEY CALCULATED: Their computer model says there would be a 'disaster-movie-size wave'.
The method of calculation used in the mathematical model is the wrong one. It is only valid for long under sea earthquakes. It is incorrect and misleading to claim that it can be applied to landslides.
Using the correct calculations there wouldn't have been a scare story.

THEY SAY: La Palma has undergone a previous single total flank collapse.
There are piles of debris off the coast of La Palma but there is no evidence that this was caused by a single event. There IS evidence that the debris is the result of a series of small landslides.
Ward/Day/McGuire present this lie as a fact but produce NO evidence to support their falsification, which is simply because there is no evidence.

FACT: The 'Natural Hazard' industry is a multimillion pound (euro/dollar) business.
Educational and Research institutes, Insurance companies and Hazard warning equipment manufacturers have a large commercial interest in promoting a high level of interest (and investment) in hazard monitoring programs.
Promoting scare stories is one method of obtaining funding.

FACT: The research and TV program were funded by Insurance companies.
The 'research organisation' which provided the information for the BBC Horizon program is largely funded by their parent organisation.
Their parent organisation is an Insurance Company. Insurance sells better when their potential clients get scared.
Previous versions of the research organisations website showed logos and references to the insurance companies who finance the hazard research. These references are no longer shown on the website.

FACT: The Horizon program uses wonderful graphics but very few facts.
The Horizon program uses wonderful graphics but proves nothing. The program is full of misleading suggestions and unrelated facts. For example the 4 huge vertical solid walls of rock shown in one diagram do not exist. Nothing even remotely like these walls exists. This is not a diagrammatic representation of the facts. It is pure fiction without which the hazard industry scare story would not exist.
The BBC Horizon program is NOT A SCIENTIFIC program. It belongs on the science fantasy shelf along with Star Wars, Jurassic Park and Godzilla.

QUESTION: Why was the film made when the scientific community knew that it was based on lies and speculation?.
Perhaps the quest for personal fame and fortune played a role?
McGuire's books seem to be selling quite well. They include 'A Guide to the End of the World : Everything You Never Wanted to Know', 'A Guide to the End of the World' and 'Surviving Armageddon: Solutions for a Threatened Planet'. These are not serious scientific works, they are science fantasy.
The Dude Abides....
Luckily I'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug regiment to keep my mind limber.
:Dudeism:
the_herbalist

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03/25/2013 02:05 PM
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Re: Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!
How the story started

1. Scientific research was published about a possible fault line on La Palma and the possibility of a landslide being caused by future volcanic activity.
2. Theoretical projections were made as to the circumstances under which the fault could cause a major landslide.
3. A computer model was made which showed that under specific circumstances a landslide could cause a tsunami which might reach the Atlantic Coast of the USA, the Caribbean, the northern and western coasts of the South American continent, West Africa and the Western coasts of Europe.
4. A television program was made based on speculations and a very large helping of dramatic effects.
5. The general public believed it. The media keeps repeating the speculation as if it is fact.
6. Other well respected scientists have destroyed the La Palma Tsunami theory by using factual evidence. The media has FAILED to present this contra-expertise.
So what's the problem?
The problem is that the world is even today being given the impression that:
1. La Palma will slide into the ocean.
2. A La Palma landslide would cause a large Tsunami.
3. The damage caused by a La Palma Tsunami would be on the scale of the 26 December 2004 Tsunami.
4. People should buy insurance against Tsunami flood damage.
5. People should not visit La Palma or the Canary Islands.
What are the effects?
1. People are being misled into believing the scaremongering media stories about a potential Tsunami disaster.
2. The La Palma and Canary Island tourist industry is being damaged by the incorrect information being distributed about a potentially disastrous Tsunami.
La Palma is innocent but suffering as a result of deliberately misleading information.
JMC and Thompson ceased their flights to La Palma from 2004 to 2007. Direct flights from Switzerland stopped. Flights from Germany have been substantially reduced.
The original arguments:
The proposed theory is basically that if volcanic activity1 occurs on a large enough scale water trapped2 in the volcanic rocks will be super-heated under pressure3 and will suddenly explode4 with such force that a huge chunk5 of La Palma will suddenly and very very rapidly6 drop into the sea and cause a Mega-Tsunami7 that would grow in size and cause damage8 when it reaches Florida.
All 8 numbered points are disputed or denied by well-respected experts. See further details
The TV and media exaggerations:
The media has taken this theory and given it the Spielberg treatment. They have implied that the La Palma volcano will explode like Krakatoa or Mount St.Helens. It won't. They have made the wave into a monster wave of 8 to 100 meters high which will crash into Florida and cause massive damage to property and huge loss of life. It won't.
The counter arguments:
The basic research which was done is correct. That is not in dispute. There is a fault, some movement has been detected and there is a volcano which will probably erupt again.
BUT .....
1. The existing fault is only 4km long, but it was extrapolated to 25km for the computer model. Worse still, the position of the fault line was ignored for the model and a fictitious line on the other side of the mountain ridge was used instead, 2 to 3km further away!.
2. The rock on La Palma is a mixture of very porous lava and well faulted and open basaltic layers which will not permit a build up of (steam) pressure.
3. There is an old deep-seated volcanic core between part of the fictitious fault and the sea. This will block the proposed landslide along part of its length.
4. The base of the proposed structure which is supposed to slide is placed at 2km under the surface ... there is no evidence to support this. There is evidence to indicate that previous landslides have been superficial and not deep-seated.
5. There is strong evidence from reliable expert sources that any landslide will not occur in one massive collapse.
6. There is no evidence to support the theory that any catastrophic landslide would attain the extremely high speeds needed to crate a Tsunami.
7. The computer model was based on algorithms used for under sea linear earthquakes. This algorithm is not relevant to the La Palma situation because a La Palma landslide would cause a 'single point event' which would disperse quickly.
8. There is strong evidence to suggest that previous landslide generated Tsunami were very short lived and dissipate within a few hundred kilometres. Some were not even noticed at a distance to 25km.
Why La Palma?:
This is a question which has been asked on La Palma and there is great suspicion about the logic behind the choice because ....
1. There have been more landslides on other Canary Islands, e.g. Tenerife (5) and El Hierro (4) so why chose La Palma (only 2).
2. There is more visible volcanic activity on Lanzarote .... so why chose La Palma.
3. The largest pre-historic landslide remnants are on the neighbouring island of El Hierro, that's why it is crescent-moon-shaped ... so once again why chose La Palma.
The scientific reasons for choosing La Palma seem doubtful. Presumably there were other non-scientific motivations.
The obvious one is that La Palma is a beautiful island unspoilt by commercial tourism, dotted with traditional and modern holiday cottages and ideal for walking holidays and getting away from it all. It is a really wonderfully warm and friendly place to do research, but that's probably not the reason.
It would seem likely that the answer lies not in the source of the suggested tsunami but with the location of the potential damage. The suggested La Palma landslide is the only one that would possibly cause damage in the USA. So why would that be a significant factor. Maybe the fact that the research was funded by a American Hazard Insurance Company is relevant?

Endorsement by the scientific community:
NONE
In fact many reliable researchers and geological and volcano experts have labelled the suggestions as ridiculous and the conclusions as work of fantasy with no basis in fact.
The leading Spanish and Canary island vulcanologist was furious when the fantasy film was announced and shown. All serious scientific work is ALWAYS published in scientific journals to enable other researchers to provide supporting or contrary evidence, to enable discussion and quality control on the work done and conclusions drawn and to provide a balanced and factually correct report to the general public. This procedure was NOT followed in the case of the Mega-Tsunami. The basis of the wild theory is NOT substantiated in fact and has been completely destroyed by contrary evidence.
Not only has the scientific community NOT ENDORSED this theory, but the scientific community was DELIBERATELY kept in the dark until after the documentary was shown.
Conclusion:
1. A catastrophic volcanic eruption on La Palma is not possible.
2. A landslide is possible but not on the scale suggested and is improbable in the next 10,000 years.
3. The computer model is NOT technically correct for short period tsunamis such as proposed to be generated by La Palma, the parameters used are wildly exaggerated and the algorithm is not applicable to this sort of event.
4. If the landslide happens it is unlikely to cause more than a big splash which will not be noticeable further than 100 km from the coast of La Palma.
5. La Palma is the victim of a commercially motivated scaremongering publicity stunt.
Comparison with the 26 December 2004 Tsunami:
The 2 events are not comparable.
Even if a La Palma Tsunami should occur it be insignificant compared to the 26 December 2004 Tsunami.
The earthquake which caused the 26 December 2004 Tsunami displaced water over a length of 1000km and probably 10 meters high and more than 20m wide (based in guestimates on 28 December 2004).
Even the most exaggerated worst case La Palma scenario uses a total length of 25km.
Exploding the media myths:
1. La Palma will NOT explode like Krakatoa or Mount St.Helens.
Why not? Because it is the wrong sort of magma and the wrong sort of geomorphic structure.
 
2. The tidal wave will not be over 20 metres tall when it reaches Florida.
Why not? Because a landslide on La Palma would be a 'single point event' like dropping a pebble in a pool. The ripples from the pool spread out and diminish very rapidly in height and strength. In the most extreme situation a La Palma landslide would probably not be noticeably more than 100km away.
 
3. The 26 December 2004 event could NOT happen on La Palma.
Why not? The 26 December 2004 event occurred on about a 1000km stretch of the junction between 2 tectonic plates. La Palma is not at the edge of a tectonic plate, never has been and never will be.
 
4. The landslide could not be triggered by terrorists. (Yes it has been suggested.)
Why not? Drilling holes deep enough to bury explosives or a nuclear bomb would be noticed by the local people. La Palma is a civilised island with a population of about 90,000 people and thriving economy. Planning permission would be needed to start drilling and illegal drilling would not get a chance to begin.
 
5. Pre-emptive strikes by the US Military would not solve the problem.(This has also been suggested.)
Why not? The forces needed to trigger even a small landslide on La Palma would be far greater than are available. The level of destruction would not be acceptable to the inhabitants or their government (Spain) or the EU. The fall-out of a nuclear strike would be far more destructive than any supposed Tsunami.
 
6. There have not been 14 mega-tsunamis started in the Canary Islands (This too has been endlessly repeated.)
Why not? There are 14 piles of rubble in the sea around the Canary Islands, there is NO evidence to suggest that 13 of them even caused a splash. The El Hierro collapse may have caused a splash but that was so many thousands of years ago that there is no conclusive evidence. Evidence pointed to by the authors is strongly disputed.
Luckily I'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug regiment to keep my mind limber.
:Dudeism:
Esoteric Morgan
...in awe of many things

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03/26/2013 07:41 AM

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Re: Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!
these people predicting doom don't you know watched pot never boils.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1401964


so true....and in this case i'm glad since i'm only 75 miles off the atlantic coast. hiding
 Quoting: woowoochic


Not this Lame Ass DOOm again......it is posted everyday going back for at least 3 years.

Oh my.....a 2.0 tremor !!!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7128223



The bottom line is, no one really knows, do they? But, it certainly is a doom scenario of outrageous proportion, no matter how high the incoming wave might be.

It is quite possible that this will never happen in our lifetime, yet, back when this issue was first being watched, I called OEM in NYC, to ask them if they were currently watching the situation, as I live on Staten Island. Although he said that this was only ONE of many scenarios they monitor constantly...

...despite what he said, the picture for NYC is very grim, and we are only ONE COMMUNITY in its wakefor thousands of miles of shoreline.

Our problem is not only that we here in Staten Island are completely surrounded by water, our main highway is part of the I-95 system, which bisects the island, so, as people from Brooklyn and beyond are all heading inland towards New Jersey and beyond to escape harm, the entire highway grinds to a halt. Any time people take to the roads en masse, all of the roads leading towards the highway become 'parking lots' in the process. Staten Island is known for its nightmare roadways...a failure of city planning foresight when, and since, the Verranzano-Narrows Bridge was connected to the I-95 system in 1964, without widening the old farm roads that have been in place for three hundred years.

So, I told this OEM guy that with our main arteries backed- up, what hope is there that ANYONE in NYC, especially those of us on Staten Island, could hope to make it to safety. To which he replied:

"Anyone in NYC can WALK to the safety of inland shores in eight hours."

To which I replied: "So, this gets us to the SHORES of the Jersey mainland, but not to their mountains beyond." And what if we only get the five or six hour warnings, as some authorities have calculated?

He had no answer to that. In a perfect world, I would have the means to purchase a self-inflating 'raft' with some kind of motor, walk the 1000' to the waterway at the end of my block, and make my way inland a bit quicker than if on foot.

If a tsunami ever hits us, unless it comes into the channel near me at under the 100' of elevation on which my house stands, we are certainly doomed.

All things considered, I would rather die in my house after some hours of trying to find some degree of inner peace, than to hopelessly scurry about like a trapped rat, then be swept away while in the center of a hopeless and bloated mess of debris of other doomed citizens.

I'll just call my sons to come over, invite some neighbors, prepare us all a nice meal, and have a going-out party.

What else can one do when there's no means of escape?

5a

Last Edited by Esoteric Morgan on 03/26/2013 07:43 AM
Lady J USA

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03/27/2013 12:18 PM

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Re: Those quakes in the Canary Islands are still going strong..several days! 4.0 CHECK OUT THE LATEST UPDATE!
bump only cause there was 66 comments and i have to make it 67
Lady J USA

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