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Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!

 
Luisport

User ID: 37728058
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04/09/2013 03:37 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO MUCH OF CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091914Z - 092115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z.

DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS TX INTO
WRN OK. ALONG THIS FRONT...OCCASIONAL CU HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND
DISSIPATED AS SOURCE AIR GETS UNDERCUT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR
MASS HAS BEEN CAPPED.

HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CHANGING CHARACTER TO THE
CU FIELDS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK NEAR THE FRONT. A DEEPER GROUPING
OF TCU HAS FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE HOTTER AIR ACROSS NWRN
TX...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION
WHERE CAPPING IS NEGLIGIBLE. MORE RECENTLY...STABLE WAVE CLOUDS HAVE
MIXED ACROSS W CNTRL AND SWRN OK...SUGGESTING THE CAP IS BEING
LIFTED THERE AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND COOLING IN THE CAPPING LAYER...STORM INITIATION WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN REGARD TO LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION IS
THE TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO UNDERCUT DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG
IT...ORPHANING THE INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/09/2013
Anonymous Coward
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04/09/2013 03:38 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Watch it live

[link to kfor.com]
Anonymous Coward
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04/09/2013 03:40 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
I need help from all of our GLP weather watchers. This front has the potential to be deadly. We may be looking at ice, snow, baseball size hail, tornado's and high winds, over a large portion of the US.

This system is going to take a few days to march across the country so if you are not under the gun at the moment ...wait for it.

Here are a few links that may be helpful to keep an eye on the weather in your area.


Individual state weather info:
[link to www.nws.noaa.gov]

Severe weather warnings:
[link to kamala.cod.edu]

Radar and maps:
[link to classic.wunderground.com]
[link to imapweather.com]
[link to www.intellicast.com]
[link to radar.weather.gov]
 Quoting: CowgirlK


are you in oklahoma?
Luisport

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04/09/2013 03:52 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cap in place across TX. The only way convection will likely fire is when the cold air comes in and undercuts the warm air. Notice the winter weather advisories where temps are in the 80's right now across Oklahoma. [link to i.imwx.com]
Luisport

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04/09/2013 03:57 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
[link to radblast-aws.wunderground.com]
Luisport

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04/09/2013 03:59 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
HPC folks are forecasting a lot of rain from the Mississippi River east. [link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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04/09/2013 04:03 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cap in place across TX. The only way convection will likely fire is when the cold air comes in and undercuts the warm air. Notice the winter weather advisories where temps are in the 80's right now across Oklahoma. [link to i.imwx.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Luisport:

What do you think about the Dallas/Fort Worth metro?

Dr. Forbes on TWC seems to be saying that highest tornado risk is further north.

You agree?
Luisport

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04/09/2013 04:06 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cap in place across TX. The only way convection will likely fire is when the cold air comes in and undercuts the warm air. Notice the winter weather advisories where temps are in the 80's right now across Oklahoma. [link to i.imwx.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Luisport:

What do you think about the Dallas/Fort Worth metro?

Dr. Forbes on TWC seems to be saying that highest tornado risk is further north.

You agree?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37745572


well we never know for shure, but i agree with Dr Forbes
Luisport

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04/09/2013 04:11 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
[link to www.spc.noaa.gov] it looks like tomorrow will be more active then today
Luisport

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04/09/2013 04:25 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cold front with 30 to 40 degree temperature drops in 20 minutes. [link to images.intellicast.com]
Luisport

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04/09/2013 04:27 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cold front with 30 to 40 degree temperature drops in 20 minutes. [link to images.intellicast.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


gaspgaspgasp
Luisport

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04/09/2013 04:28 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cold front with 30 to 40 degree temperature drops in 20 minutes. [link to images.intellicast.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


gaspgaspgasp
 Quoting: Luisport


This cold front is moving very fast as well basically killing any severe weather chances across the Plains
alexisj9

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04/09/2013 04:35 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cold front with 30 to 40 degree temperature drops in 20 minutes. [link to images.intellicast.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


That must feel very strange.
alexisj9

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04/09/2013 04:37 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Very strong cold front with 30 to 40 degree temperature drops in 20 minutes. [link to images.intellicast.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


gaspgaspgasp
 Quoting: Luisport


This cold front is moving very fast as well basically killing any severe weather chances across the Plains
 Quoting: Luisport


That's a good thing, the last thing anyone over there wants is a tornado outbreak, apart from the chasers that is.
Luisport

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04/09/2013 04:53 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue16 min
Latest Texas analysis at 2pm CDT showed 77°F temp difference between panhandle and Laredo. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue17 min
RTMA 2.5 km analyzed temps over CONUS at 3pm ranged from -1°F to 103°F [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue26 min
Many counties across midwest & great lakes seeing 30-40°F temperature gradients. Drive 20-miles for Spring! [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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04/10/2013 12:45 AM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
anymore info for twister outbreak?

Dallas
Luisport

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04/10/2013 07:45 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather8 min
Yesterday was snowiest day of all time for Rapid City at 20", breaking previous record of 18" set 4-22-2001.
Luisport

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04/10/2013 07:46 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel1 h
Report of ~1/4" #ice on trees in Weatherford, OK. Is this April? Latest forecast on Winter Storm #Walda: [link to wxch.nl]


The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel1 h
RT @EricFisherTWC: Single day snowfall records have been SMASHED in Rapid City, SD. 20" in one day! [link to 1.usa.gov] #SDwx #Walda
Luisport

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04/10/2013 08:23 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel26 min
Burnet, TX (just NW of Austin) fell from 72º at 5am to 47º at 6am. Within that hour, temp dropped from 71º to 52º in 23 min. #TXwx
Luisport

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04/10/2013 08:26 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC3 min
Wow! Significant icing. MT: @stormchaserch13 Hutch, KS @EricFisherTWC [link to twitter.com (secure)]
snark

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04/10/2013 08:28 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
We will be getting it tomorrow, although thankfully it will not be in the middle of the night. It is going to be in the 80s today here and that makes me real nervous.
T For Texas, T For Tennessee!


The virtue of courage is a prerequisite for the practice of all other virtues, because otherwise one is virtuous only when virtue has no cost. There are times when something needs to be done, and yet we know that if we step up and do this needful thing, we will pay a heavy personal price. -C.S. Lewis
Luisport

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04/10/2013 08:33 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC20 s
Something Fargo, ND would rather not see...more snow moving in; to melt at a later date: [link to 1.usa.gov] #flood
Luisport

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04/10/2013 08:45 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel4 min
Updated snowfall amounts in Rapid City, SD: 20.9" downtown and 25.0" at the airport (east side). Still snowing. #Walda #SDwx
Luisport

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04/10/2013 09:05 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather2 min
RT @reedtimmertvn: Freezing rain, sleet, thunderstorms, hail here in central/western OK with reported power outages just W OKC! #okwx...
Tard&Proud

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04/10/2013 09:05 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Hello Luisport ! Thanks for the updates , what do you think about Georgia ???
whiteangel

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04/10/2013 10:49 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Not sure it was reported but behind this front is icy cold air. Denver tied it's low at 7F above zero or -14C this morning.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
tiger1

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04/10/2013 11:30 AM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Here in Northwest Indiana it was 54 degrees when I got up this morning. Now it is 38 degrees. The temp dropped like a rock within an hour.
Anonymous Coward
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04/10/2013 11:40 AM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Rain just about over my area,East of Dallas...was up this morning around 5am when front came in and it dropped from 70 to 47 in a matter of an hour.

looking at the radar seems a big mixed bag of precip.ongoing along Texas/Oklahoma.

Damn,hope we warm up soon...my garden plants are waiting in the green-house...ground isnt warm enough yet..bet folks north of us are pissed if they already planted.
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/10/2013 12:30 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather2 min
RT @reedtimmertvn: Freezing rain, sleet, thunderstorms, hail here in central/western OK with reported power outages just W OKC! #okwx...
 Quoting: Luisport


Thanks Luis for keeping the thread going. (read what I posted on the first page)

I know I can always count on you!!!

hf
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/10/2013 12:31 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Rain just about over my area,East of Dallas...was up this morning around 5am when front came in and it dropped from 70 to 47 in a matter of an hour.

looking at the radar seems a big mixed bag of precip.ongoing along Texas/Oklahoma.

Damn,hope we warm up soon...my garden plants are waiting in the green-house...ground isnt warm enough yet..bet folks north of us are pissed if they already planted.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20835756


Yea..Im in the DFW area. Its sprinkling now and really cold. I had to turn the heat on again.