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Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!

 
CowgirlK (OP)

User ID: 34838675
United States
04/07/2013 05:22 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread!
 Quoting: snark


I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all!
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 05:25 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Kansas...here is your forecast!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
418 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION​-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-H​ARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE​-
418 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVENING...MAINLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW BRIEFLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
C'est la vie

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04/07/2013 05:25 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
I live just south of St. Louis, MO....Thanks for the heads up! I'll keep my eye to the sky, stay safe everyone.
That's Life!
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 05:31 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Kansas and Oklahoma..this one is for you!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTLE PRESSURE TROUGH THAT LIES
WEST-EAST ALONG THE KS BORDER. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AND SURGE NORTH. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPED
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND CONTINUES EAST ACROSS KS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TO
DEVELOP OVER FAR NW OK/SW-S CNTRL KS AND TRACK EAST TOWARD NE OK.
THE MOST RECENT AVAILABLE RUN OF THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS
POSSIBILITY BUT IT IS STILL WORTH WATCHING
. ANY UPDRAFT THAT CAN
SUSTAIN ITSELF WILL LIKELY ROTATE...GIVEN ~50 KTS OF WESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THE RIGHT MOVING BUNKERS SUPERCELL VECTOR HAS A
MOTION JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST AT 20 KTS. THIS HAS BACKED FROM
EARLIER TODAY...MOST LIKELY DUE TO STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF AN IMPULSE OVER NM PER WV IMAGERY. SO THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE KS BORDER AND MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THROUGH THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALL SIZE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND DUE TO STRENGTHENING
0-1KM SHEAR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD ACCOMPANY A SUPERCELL
IF IT HAPPENED TO PAY US A VISIT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL GET ALONG AND NORTH OF
SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD 06Z AS STRENGTHENING LLJ FOCUSES ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUT RAIN
CHANCES...AS OUR LOCAL MODEL DEVELOPS STORMS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
FOR NOW WILL HEDGE AND PUT SLIGHT CHCS DOWN TO NEAR I-40.

THE CAP STRENGTHENS ON MONDAY AND THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
CONSOLIDATES WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER. CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
IT IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SETUP (PROBABLY THE BEST OF THE WEEK)...BUT
LOW PROB OF OCCURRENCE.

THE NEXT BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
DATA TODAY HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED MY FORECAST REASONING FROM
YESTERDAY MUCH AT ALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A DECENT CAP IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET STORMS TO GO
WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL WELL WEST AND LACK OF ANY
FOCUSING BOUNDARIES IN OUR AREA. IF A STORM DOES GO IN THE WARM
SECTOR...IT WOULD LIKELY BE BAD...BUT ODDS ARE PRETTY LOW. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FRONTAL FORCING ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SINCE UPPER
TROUGH IS COMING OUT WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...THUS STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT
WILL TEND TO BE UNDERCUT QUICKLY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW
ALMOST ALL QPF ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...INDICATIVE OF THIS
VERY SCENARIO. I`M NOT SAYING THERE WILL NOT BE SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BE UNDERCUT WILL LIMIT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. POST-FRONTAL RAIN AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. A SUBTLE WAVE WILL PASS THRU THE PLAINS SATURDAY...WITH
THE MAIN EFFECT BEING MORE CLOUD COVER. ONCE THAT PASSES...UPPER
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SW AND LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SW
KS/SE CO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL HERE AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY BY NEXT SUNDAY.
CowgirlK (OP)

User ID: 34838675
United States
04/07/2013 05:33 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
I live just south of St. Louis, MO....Thanks for the heads up! I'll keep my eye to the sky, stay safe everyone.
 Quoting: C'est la vie


This one is for the Show Me State!

FLUS43 KLSX 072054
HWOLSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027​-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
354 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.

$$

GLASS





[top]
CowgirlK (OP)

User ID: 34838675
United States
04/07/2013 05:35 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
429 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...


* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 425 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEOSHO FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 3793275
United Kingdom
04/07/2013 05:37 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
the birth of an ice age,even if a june day is hot the nights go to chill uk that is and we are surrounded by the stuff that keeps nights barmy.the conveyor belt has stopped and we ade in denial
Listen_n

User ID: 1580156
United States
04/07/2013 05:38 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Don't forget Tennessee- cuz that's who they're aiming for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37617651


You are right...this system will march across the US..so everyone needs to keep their eyes to the skies.
 Quoting: CowgirlK


Wait! What?? Who's aiming at us? hiding Are we getting bad storms? The news didn't indicate that yesterday. They were pointing higher north.
If we don't listen we will never hear the truth
CowgirlK (OP)

User ID: 34838675
United States
04/07/2013 05:39 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
437 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 434 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF
BRONSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRONSON...DEVON...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...HAMMOND...HARDING...
MAPLETON...MARMATON...PETERSBURG...REDFIELD...UNIONTOWN AND XENIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
Texan Buckeye

User ID: 1533753
United States
04/07/2013 05:41 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Hey Cowgirl! Looks like a bumpy week. Thanks for the heads-up. Youngest is still in Norman and that looked like dead center.

We're in a fire weather watch for tomorrow and the western half of the panhandle has a red flag warning. Sorry, I tried to copy/paste, but the mouse is still acting up. Looks like we'll have to get another one.

It looks like we'll be getting more of New Mexico and Arizona's topsoil and TUMBLEWEEDS!!!
They also serve who stand and wait. John Milton
CowgirlK (OP)

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United States
04/07/2013 05:43 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Don't forget Tennessee- cuz that's who they're aiming for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37617651


You are right...this system will march across the US..so everyone needs to keep their eyes to the skies.
 Quoting: CowgirlK


Wait! What?? Who's aiming at us? hiding Are we getting bad storms? The news didn't indicate that yesterday. They were pointing higher north.
 Quoting: Listen_n


Here you go..They are not predicting severe for you yet..wait for it.


FXUS64 KMEG 072033
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER
TO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE THE
CLOUDS. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EACH DAY...IT
WILL GET HARDER AND HARDER TO BREAK UP. THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DUE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z AND NOW 12Z ECMWF WITH AT LEAST
INITIAL TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SEVERAL DAYS
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MID 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. A SFC LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 18Z (1 PM) WEDNESDAY. PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW
SHOULD BE AROUND THE NE ARKANSAS...SE MISSOURI...AND W KENTUCKY
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2.
THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. FIRST ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND 1 PM-4 PM WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BASED ON LATEST MODELS WHICH ARE A LITTLE
EARLIER WITH TIMING THAN YESTERDAYS RUN. STORMS WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 4PM -7PM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE WHICH WILL PUSH EAST. HOW QUICKLY STILL REMAINS A QUESTION.

THE 12Z GFS PUSHES LINE AND COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CWA BY
12-15Z(7-10 AM)THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z AND NOW THE NEW 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH SLOWER BUT NOT AS SLOW AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
A THREAT AS WELL. CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

LINGERING RAIN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.
Listen_n

User ID: 1580156
United States
04/07/2013 05:48 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Don't forget Tennessee- cuz that's who they're aiming for.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37617651


You are right...this system will march across the US..so everyone needs to keep their eyes to the skies.
 Quoting: CowgirlK


Wait! What?? Who's aiming at us? hiding Are we getting bad storms? The news didn't indicate that yesterday. They were pointing higher north.
 Quoting: Listen_n


Here you go..They are not predicting severe for you yet..wait for it.


FXUS64 KMEG 072033
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER
TO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE THE
CLOUDS. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EACH DAY...IT
WILL GET HARDER AND HARDER TO BREAK UP. THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DUE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z AND NOW 12Z ECMWF WITH AT LEAST
INITIAL TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE WARM AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SEVERAL DAYS
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MID 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. A SFC LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 18Z (1 PM) WEDNESDAY. PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW
SHOULD BE AROUND THE NE ARKANSAS...SE MISSOURI...AND W KENTUCKY
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2.
THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. FIRST ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND 1 PM-4 PM WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BASED ON LATEST MODELS WHICH ARE A LITTLE
EARLIER WITH TIMING THAN YESTERDAYS RUN. STORMS WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 4PM -7PM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE WHICH WILL PUSH EAST. HOW QUICKLY STILL REMAINS A QUESTION.

THE 12Z GFS PUSHES LINE AND COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CWA BY
12-15Z(7-10 AM)THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE 00Z AND NOW THE NEW 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH SLOWER BUT NOT AS SLOW AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
A THREAT AS WELL. CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

LINGERING RAIN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.
 Quoting: CowgirlK


You rock Cowgirl! Thanks! hf

Here's what our forcast says for the week:

[link to weather.yahoo.com]
If we don't listen we will never hear the truth
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 37625060
United States
04/07/2013 05:52 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread!
 Quoting: snark


I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all!
 Quoting: CowgirlK


Cowgirl:

The terminology used in your statement above compelled me to write this post:

As someone who went through a major tornado event decades ago, I can tell you that it forever impacts you emotionally. So I always want to tell others that yes! you MUST be alert, cautious, prepared, and take storms seriously . . . BUT, there is a fine line between that and unnecessarily inciting fear.

Some of the DFW tv meteorologists are bad about using overly-fear-driven adjectives when talking about storms and tornado watches, and someone needs to explain to them how important it is to consider the terminology when discussing potentially serious weather events.

Their job is to keep everyone informed and provide up-to-the minute status reports, especially during tornado watches, so they should be firm and direct enough to make people pay attention and take things seriously . . . but they should not throw around adjectives that can instill undue panic, especially for those who've been through tornadoes and have to work to keep their stresses under control during storms.

Just saying . . .
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 05:53 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Hey Cowgirl! Looks like a bumpy week. Thanks for the heads-up. Youngest is still in Norman and that looked like dead center.

We're in a fire weather watch for tomorrow and the western half of the panhandle has a red flag warning. Sorry, I tried to copy/paste, but the mouse is still acting up. Looks like we'll have to get another one.

It looks like we'll be getting more of New Mexico and Arizona's topsoil and TUMBLEWEEDS!!!
 Quoting: Texan Buckeye


Hey Buckey! Yea, so far all they are predicting for Texas is lots of wind. Time will tell if we are going to get anything else.

It's lining up to be a dangerous weather week for many states. I hope by starting this thread today it will give people time to prepare.

Tell your youngest, if a twister is headed their way get into a storm shelter, basement or a beer cooler at the bar. I got a phone call from my daughter years ago while she was at college in Missouri during a tornado. She said, Don't worry mom, we are hunkered down in a beer cooler. The only problem I see is paying our bar tab..KIDS!

hf
Texan Buckeye

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04/07/2013 05:55 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Hey Cowgirl! Looks like a bumpy week. Thanks for the heads-up. Youngest is still in Norman and that looked like dead center.

We're in a fire weather watch for tomorrow and the western half of the panhandle has a red flag warning. Sorry, I tried to copy/paste, but the mouse is still acting up. Looks like we'll have to get another one.

It looks like we'll be getting more of New Mexico and Arizona's topsoil and TUMBLEWEEDS!!!
 Quoting: Texan Buckeye


Hey Buckey! Yea, so far all they are predicting for Texas is lots of wind. Time will tell if we are going to get anything else.

It's lining up to be a dangerous weather week for many states. I hope by starting this thread today it will give people time to prepare.

Tell your youngest, if a twister is headed their way get into a storm shelter, basement or a beer cooler at the bar. I got a phone call from my daughter years ago while she was at college in Missouri during a tornado. She said, Don't worry mom, we are hunkered down in a beer cooler. The only problem I see is paying our bar tab..KIDS!

hf
 Quoting: CowgirlK


Hahaha!!! That would be where I'd find him...AND with all the girls!
They also serve who stand and wait. John Milton
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 06:02 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread!
 Quoting: snark


I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all!
 Quoting: CowgirlK


Cowgirl:

The terminology used in your statement above compelled me to write this post:

As someone who went through a major tornado event decades ago, I can tell you that it forever impacts you emotionally. So I always want to tell others that yes! you MUST be alert, cautious, prepared, and take storms seriously . . . BUT, there is a fine line between that and unnecessarily inciting fear.

Some of the DFW tv meteorologists are bad about using overly-fear-driven adjectives when talking about storms and tornado watches, and someone needs to explain to them how important it is to consider the terminology when discussing potentially serious weather events.

Their job is to keep everyone informed and provide up-to-the minute status reports, especially during tornado watches, so they should be firm and direct enough to make people pay attention and take things seriously . . . but they should not throw around adjectives that can instill undue panic, especially for those who've been through tornadoes and have to work to keep their stresses under control during storms.

Just saying . . .
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37625060


I agree with you. I have been through my fair share of weather disasters too, including blizzards, typhoons, hurricanes and tornado's. And yes, It changes a person forever.

The point I am trying to drive home here is...It's spring and with that comes storms. People need to take responsibility for their own safety, monitor the weather and not rely on the local TV weather gal in a short skirt to tell them when to bring their tomato plants in. That's why I put links to radar sites on the first page of this thread.

That being said, It's going to be a bumpy weather week. This is a good time for people to make sure they are prepared for whatever mother nature throws at us.
hf
snark

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04/07/2013 06:04 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
I am thankful for our basement! Right at a year ago we had a bad, bad hailstorm that creamed about half of the roofs in Nashville, including ours. My mom was visiting, and she was upstairs when the storm started. I was watching the news and when the tornado warning came I yelled at her "mom come ON and get in the basement!" She starts moseying down the stairs real calm and says "I'm from Texas, this is nothing..." I go "GET YOUR ASS IN THE BASEMENT NOW!" and right then the windows start breaking in the house. She hauled her tiny ass down to the basement right quick!! I don't usually talk to my mom like that but I was scared!!

Last Edited by snark on 04/07/2013 06:06 PM
T For Texas, T For Tennessee!


The virtue of courage is a prerequisite for the practice of all other virtues, because otherwise one is virtuous only when virtue has no cost. There are times when something needs to be done, and yet we know that if we step up and do this needful thing, we will pay a heavy personal price. -C.S. Lewis
CowgirlK (OP)

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
KS is getting the storms right now.

Twitter:

Kyla Grogan
Severe Weather rolling through SE Kansas into Missouri at this hour. Golf ball sized hail reported.

KS ALERT: A Severe Weather Statement has been issued for Allen & Neosho Counties until 05:45 PM. Golf Ball Size Hail And 60 Mph Wind Gusts..
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 06:11 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
I am thankful for our basement! Right at a year ago we had a bad, bad hailstorm that creamed about half of the roofs in Nashville, including ours. My mom was visiting, and she was upstairs when the storm started. I was watching the news and when the tornado warning came I yelled at her "mom come ON and get in the basement!" She starts moseying down the stairs real calm and says "I'm from Texas, this is nothing..." I go "GET YOUR ASS IN THE BASEMENT NOW!" and right then the windows start breaking in the house. She hauled her tiny ass down to the basement right quick!! I don't usually talk to my mom like that but I was scared!!
 Quoting: snark


WOW...You are a good daughter! I worry about that type of thing here in North Texas where we don't have a basement to get into. Every room in this house has tons of windows so the only safe place is a hall bathroom and a closet under the steps. If I didn't have dogs to worry about I guess I could run into town and hide out in beer cooler like my daughter. LOL
Anonymous Coward
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04/07/2013 06:11 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
oh dear! Climate Change or...Spring?! You decide.
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 06:17 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
This is what they are saying so far..Pay attention to your local weather as things will change as storms develop.


Sunday, April 7

Isolated severe thunderstorms in the central two-thirds of Kansas from near Dodge City and Hays to Manhattan and Wichita, northwest and north-central Oklahoma (excluding the panhandle), spreading overnight across eastern Kansas and into west-central Missouri. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 for these areas through Sunday evening.

Monday, April 8

Isolated severe thunderstorms in western and central Kansas, northwest and north-central Oklahoma (excluding the panhandle), extreme northeast Colorado, south-central and southwest Nebraska. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 northwest KS.

Severe thunderstorms may spread overnight into southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas.

Tuesday, April 9

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in south-central and eastern Kansas, northeastern quarter and western half of Missouri, western Arkansas, central and eastern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas, southeast Iowa, west-central Illinois. Maximum TOR:CON - 5 eastern Kansas.

Severe thunderstorms spreading overnight across central Texas, central Arkansas, east-central and southeast Missouri, and western Illinois.

Wednesday, April 10

Severe thunderstorms along and somewhat ahead of a cold front in extreme southwest MI, IN, northeast, central, south IL, west KY, west TN, north and west MS, west and central LA, east and southeast TX, spreading overnight into southeast LA, across MS and into west AL and possibly the west FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 4 east-central IL, west-central IN; 3 to 4 elsewhere

[link to www.weather.com]
LOU512

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04/07/2013 06:17 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Thanks for heads up


hf
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
Sun Tzu
Anonymous Coward
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04/07/2013 06:20 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Thanks, Cowgirl! You know my family's in Texas and I'm in Tennessee-- whatever y'all get there comes to me! I love spring but I hate the storms :( gotta take the good with the bad I guess. I'll be watching this thread!
 Quoting: snark


I know Snark..From the sound of things there are going to be a lot of people under the weather gun for most of the coming week. If spring is going to be anything like the winter was..God help us all!
 Quoting: CowgirlK


AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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04/07/2013 06:21 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Jeez. Not again. I hate this at the time of the year. Constant threats of hails and tornadoes...

Somebody got hit with baseball sized hails not far from here the other day...
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 06:27 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Jeez. Not again. I hate this at the time of the year. Constant threats of hails and tornadoes...

Somebody got hit with baseball sized hails not far from here the other day...
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


I'm with you..I want the rain but not the winds and hail.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
NORTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT
SCOTT...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
UNIONTOWN KANSAS.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRONAUGH...DEERFIELD...FORT SCOTT...GARLAND...HAMMOND...HANNON...
HARWOOD...HORTON...MILO...MONTEVALLO...MOUNDVILLE...NEVADA...​
OSKALOOSA...PAWNEE STATION...RICHARDS...SHELDON...STOTESBURY AND
WALKER.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REPLACES THE ONE PREVIOUSLY OUT
FOR BOURBON COUNTY
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 06:30 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Texas..this is what we have so far.


Published on Sunday, 07 April 2013 13:30


Good afternoon! Hopefully everyone is able to get out and enjoy this beautiful Spring day! Cloudy, muggy and overcast where I’m at north of Dallas, but western and southwestern parts of the state are enjoying some beautiful sunny skies and temps already into the 80′s. Breezy conditions will exist across most of the state today with gusts in the 30-35mph range across central and western parts of the state. The cloud deck currently over the eastern portion of the state is expected to stick around, so some of the highs portrayed on the graphic below may be just a few degrees overstated. No rain is expected in the state today. As discussed earlier by David and Conley, our best chances for rain and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday and into Wednesday as a strong upper low sweeps through from the west and a strong cold front drops down from the north. A squall line of storms oriented from northeast to southwest across the state is likely Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning. At this time, the biggest threats with this line of storms should be large hail and damaging winds. We will continue to monitor and keep you updated!

[link to www.texasstormchasers.com]
Anonymous Coward
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04/07/2013 06:35 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Please put Arkansas on your list. We usually get hit extremely hard with tornadoes, and yet everyone forgets about Arkansas.

80 degrees today.
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 06:43 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
Got ya covered Arkansas!


Here is another one for Kansas


ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 534 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALEXANDER...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEKOMA...HARGRAVE...RUSH CENTER...LA CROSSE...BISON...TIMKEN...
LORETTA...SHAFFER AND OTIS.
usa1961

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04/07/2013 06:49 PM
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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
I live on the very bottom of the second image, the second day when it blows up. Im in a travel trail camping, thanks for this headsup, tomorrow i will get to town for a room. Again ty.
CowgirlK (OP)

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04/07/2013 06:53 PM

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Re: Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
545 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 541 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
MANCHESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANCHESTER...LONGFORD AND OAK HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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