MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL AZ...S-CNTRL/SWRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081736Z - 081930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS.
OVERALL WEAK/TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION PRECLUDES THE NEED
FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN NV AND
INTO NRN AZ. AS IT DOES...A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED OVER SW NV AT
17Z...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER THE LEFT EXIT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN
CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN AZ AND S-CNTRL/SWRN NV
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCANT MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE FROM
200-400 J PER KG/ WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE...BUT
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND ROBUST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A FEW
STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIMITED STORM
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2013


ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

LAT...LON 34281188 34221235 34271268 34431301 34591311 34751318
34991319 35241310 35521294 36231262 36691236 37751128
38101093 38331051 38421018 38460980 38400952 38260937
38010930 37670937 37290951 36550992 35641046 34921097
34281188