Heads up - Severe Weather Texas!

Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Tuesday, April 9

Severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes in central and eastern Kansas, southeast Nebraska, southern Iowa, northern, central and southwest Missouri, west-central Illinois, Oklahoma (except for panhandle), and north-central and northeast Texas. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 southeastern Kansas.

Tuesday night: Severe thunderstorms spreading across central and northeast Texas, western and northern Arkansas, all of Missouri, central and southern Illinois, and west-central Indiana. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 in northern Missouri.

TOR:CON details:

AR northwest - 3
AR north, west night - 3
IA south - 2 to 3
IL west-central - 2 to 3
IL west-central night - 3 to 4
IL east-central, south night - 3
IN west-central night - 3
KS southeast - 4
KS central, northeast - 3
MO north, west, central - 3
MO north night - 4
NE southeast - 2 to 3
OK (excluding panhandle) - 3
TX north-central, northeast - 3
TX central, northeast night - 3
Wednesday, April 10

Severe thunderstorms along and somewhat ahead of a cold front in central and southern Illinois, northern and central Indiana, eastern and southern Missouri, all of Arkansas, western and central Louisiana, extreme southeast Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and extreme northwestern Mississippi. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 in central Illinois.

Wednesday night: Severe thunderstorms spread into southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, west Tennessee, Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 in east-central and west-central Indiana.

TOR:CON details:

AR - 3
IL central - 4
IL south - 3
IN central - 3 to 4
KY west night - 3 to 4
LA west, central - 3
LA southeast night - 3
MO east-central - 3 to 4
MO south - 3
MS night - 3
OK extreme southeast early - 3
TN night - 3
TX east - 3

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov] DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE MID-MS/LOWER-MO VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAKS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BASE OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND FAR SRN AZ/NM WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD THROUGH
SRN CA AND BAJA INTO NWRN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODEST /I.E. 30-60 M/ 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT
500 MB SPREADING INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BELT OF 70-90 KT SWLY WINDS AT THIS SAME LEVEL.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY WHILE A TRAILING...INTENSE
COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS WRN TX TODAY AND WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL/ERN KS INTO SWRN OK. AIDED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER /TO POSSIBLY
MID/ 60S...AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO 2000-2500
J/KG SOUTH...EXPECT TSTMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL /SOME POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT/...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

THE LARGELY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO
THE COLD FRONT AND IT/S STRONGLY ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS SUGGEST
A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION OF STORMS TO OUTFLOW DOMINANT CLUSTERS OR
LINES. THOUGH CAPPING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION FROM SWRN
OK INTO NWRN TX.

AN AMALGAMATION OF STORMS INTO MULTIPLE BANDS/CLUSTERS IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INVOF OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND TX HILL
COUNTRY.

...IA EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED MCV HAS EVOLVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
MID MO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCS IN PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. HEATING ALONG AND/S OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT COUPLED WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MCV AND ANY
ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
GIVE RISE TO MULTIPLE TSTM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF MODEST INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ AND 40-45
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM
MODES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY IN A
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES
THE INCLUSION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY ATTM.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 04/09/2013

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
TUL 35 WSW MKO 25 WNW MLC 15 E ADM 40 NNW FTW 35 NNW MWL 35 SSW SPS
10 W SPS 20 SW CHK 35 NNE OKC 30 N CQB 20 WSW TUL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
CID 15 SE MLI 15 S PIA 25 SSW SPI STL 35 NW FAM 25 NNE DEQ 15 W DEQ
20 E PRX 15 NNW CRS 10 WSW ACT 50 NW AUS 55 WNW AUS 30 ESE JCT 20 SE
JCT 30 W JCT 15 S SJT 70 N ABI 30 SSW LTS CSM 20 E P28 HUT 25 W MHK
30 ESE BIE 30 NW FNB 55 SE DNS 45 W DSM 35 W CID 10 SW CID 20 ESE
CID 30 ESE CID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW BUF 10 WNW MSV
35 S GON ...CONT... 75 ENE HYA 15 NNE HYA 10 NW BOS 30 E LCI 35 SE
AUG 40 SE EPM ...CONT... 55 E WAL 25 WSW DAY 40 N SDF 50 SW BNA 30
SW TCL 50 NNW MOB 15 ESE GPT MSY 30 E HEZ 40 ENE MLU 15 WSW LLQ 25 N
ELD 30 SSE TXK 40 NW NIR 40 WNW LRD ...CONT... 30 S 6R6 75 SSW CDS
20 ESE CDS 40 E BGD 30 WNW BGD 40 SSW DHT 30 WNW CVS 40 SSW ELP
...CONT... 25 SSE FHU 20 SW SOW 35 NNE 4BL 10 SSE MTJ 35 SE GUC 20 S
PUB 15 NNW LAA 45 N ITR 30 E PIR 40 SW ABR 25 SSE ABR 25 SSW IMT 95
ENE BAX.

Weather Underground‏@wunderground2 min
Heavy snow, strong wind, & ice for Mountain West and Plains today [link to wxug.us] , [link to wxug.us] , [link to wxug.us]

Weather Underground‏@wunderground30 s
A total of 4 tornadoes, 25 wind, & 37 hail events were reported Mon. [link to wxug.us] Severe wx possible today [link to wxug.us]

[link to radar.weather.gov]

I'm going to this to help me keep a watch out for bad weather in OKC area today.

[link to hp6.wright-weather.com] [link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu]

stay alert northern texas................. [link to www.srh.noaa.gov]

well here is one..

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
918 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

IAC013-023-075-091445-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130409T1445Z/
GRUNDY IA-BLACK HAWK IA-BUTLER IA-
918 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN BLACK HAWK AND NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 914 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PARKERSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN BLACK HAWK COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4242 9266 4250 9274 4264 9260 4264 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 228DEG 41KT 4252 9258

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

COGIL

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC007-111-201-091500-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0003.130409T1426Z-130409T1500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
926 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 922 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MACHESNEY
PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED EARLIER IN
THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER STORMS.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POPLAR GROVE AND CAPRON.


I-90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 76.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4225 8902 4241 8915 4250 8896 4250 8885
4250 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1426Z 238DEG 38KT 4238 8897

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

LENNING

Saw this comment in a Sioux City discussion.

AT ANY RATE THROUGHOUT OUR ZONES IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THIS COULD LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS WE HAVE HAD IN QUITE SOME TIME WHEN ONE CONSIDERS SNOW POTENTIAL...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND WINDS.

FOR NOW...HAVE AROUND 16 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST FOR OUR ZONES IN CENTRAL SD LIKE AROUND CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...WAS ALSO FORCED TO RAISE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL IN A RATHER BIG WAY DUE TO THE SNOW EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALSO RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT FOR SIOUX FALLS AND SIOUX CITY.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Weather Underground&#8207;@wunderground4 min
Slight-Mod. risk of severe wx today: damaging wind, hail, & tornadoes [link to wxug.us] Learn how to prepare [link to wxug.us]

Good Morning Luis! Thank you very much for keeping this thread updated while I was sleeping. Just getting my coffee now, then I can read through your updates.

you can read the trolls too...

This may be an outflow, maybe a gravity wave in Northeast Kansas, Northwest Missouri, and Southwest Iowa. It has that rippling characteristic you see in gravity waves. [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

AS REGION GETS INTO HIGHLY DIFFLUENT COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE,WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL BREAKING OF CAP SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG/W OF MS RIVER LATE WED AFTERNOON...AND ORIENTATION OF 2-8 KM
SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD BE DISCRETE AND
SUPERCELLULAR. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SVR TO WX GRIDS AFTER 21Z IN
ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A RATHER
PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME
INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING QLCS

I don't feed trolls. All gone.

There are many people who appreciate what you do...I am one of them!!!

We aren't in Denver but outside and yes my kids are soooo excited that they cancelled their schools today also!!

Last Edited by WhiteAngel on 04/09/2013 11:28 AM

Latest update from NWS Norman OK

Freezing rain now?

Severe Weather Update - 10AM Tue Apr 9 2013


[link to youtu.be]

per BMX

MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
THE SREF ONLY INDICATES ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF HAVING 0-1 KM
HELICITY ABOVE 150 M2/S2 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. HAIL
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT WITH SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES. ADDITIONALLY...WITH PW VALUES VERY HIGH...EXPECT UPDRAFTS
WILL BE RATHER WATER LOADED AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY REDUCED

How much snow do you have on the ground?

The Weather Channel&#8207;@weatherchannel5 m
RT @stormchaser4850: Picture: Webcam view of the significant ice storm in Sioux Falls, SD this morning via @keloland pic.twitter.com/tgleTG3PRa


The Weather Channel&#8207;@weatherchannel59 m
Heads up for this severe t'storm with hail affecting the far NW suburbs of Chicago thru 10am CDT: [link to wxch.nl] #ILwx

Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue21 m
NAM 4km snowfall totals thru 48-hours. South Dakota & s. Minnesota look like big winners [link to twitter.com (secure)]

NWS office in Springfield Mo. latest briefing

Updated Briefing For Severe Weather Potential Tonight and Wednesday


[link to youtu.be]

This spring storm seems to be turning into a winter storm in many places. Many needed the rain but the crops that are in the ground do not need the freezing temps.

I'm glad I did not get my garden in yet.

N GA

WITH MAYBE 400-800 MLCAPE SPREADING INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES... WHICH WOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO NW
AND WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING ECHOES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER... A LOW CAPE...HIGH WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY IF
ANY ISOLATED SUPER CELL STORMS CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE.

Tuesday’s Weather – Storms & Strong Cold Front this Afternoon/Evening (Texas)

Good morning! Here’s an overview of what to expect today across the state. Dry and warm across the western half of the state with low humidity and windy conditions which will increase the threat of wildfires today. For the central and eastern parts of the state, warm, muggy, mostly to partly cloudy and windy conditions will prevail as gulf moisture streams north throughout the day. For south Texas…HOT and windy with temperatures climbing near or at 100 in areas along the Rio Grande river.

Currently..a small section of north central and northwest Texas is under a Moderate Risk for severe weather this afternoon and early evening including large hail baseball size or more, damaging winds and possible tornadoes. We will let you know if any of that changes with the next update.

[link to www.texasstormchasers.com]

Oklahoma...



UPDATE: Severe Weather Threat is NOW!
Beginning later this afternoon and evening, and continuing through the overnight hours, residents across Oklahoma must be on the lookout for severe thunderstorms, some of which may produce tornadoes. The large CAP, which prevented severe thunderstorm development in Oklahoma yesterday, is vanishing. The Storm Prediction Center has now outlined an area of MODERATE risk for severe thunderstorms in central and south central Oklahoma, which means the likelihood of severe weather, namely the hail and wind threat, is greatest in this region. A slight risk for severe thunderstorms continues to stretch across the central and eastern part of the state. Primary threats from developing storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and some tornadoes. Now is the time to prepare!

More info:
[link to owl.ou.edu]

[link to www.srh.noaa.gov]