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We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!

 
Sul-Americano
User ID: 1063827
Brazil
04/30/2013 02:57 PM
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We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
If Recombinomics site is right, THE SHIT IS REALLY GOING TO HIT THE FAN!!damned
[link to www.recombinomics.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 38638284
United States
04/30/2013 03:16 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
If Recombinomics site is right, THE SHIT IS REALLY GOING TO HIT THE FAN!!damned
[link to www.recombinomics.com]
 Quoting: Sul-Americano 1063827


Wow! And that website really seems to know what they're talking about. How credible are they?
Sul-Americano (OP)
User ID: 1063827
Brazil
04/30/2013 04:23 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
Unfortunatelly, that site is considerably reliable...
Bokonon
User ID: 38656541
04/30/2013 09:39 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
ahhh
endtimes101

User ID: 8915967
United States
04/30/2013 09:46 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
Google map

[link to maps.google.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 39146226
04/30/2013 09:47 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
really???


so, why less than 30 deaths in a country with over 1 billion people, in almost 2 months of "epidemics"?



bsflag
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 39146226
04/30/2013 09:48 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
the same bullshit of H1N1 (swine flu) in 2009

that time I panicked

this time, I won't panic again

fuck it
GUAM USA

User ID: 33775165
Guam
05/02/2013 12:27 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
If Recombinomics site is right, THE SHIT IS REALLY GOING TO HIT THE FAN!!damned
[link to www.recombinomics.com]
 Quoting: Sul-Americano 1063827


The Map of infected people at this link, is Doommy...

[link to maps.google.com (secure)]
He who sows n tills the ground w care & diligence in one season acquires a greater stock of religious merit, than he who sits n repeats 100,000 prayers per day!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33291761
United States
05/02/2013 01:02 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
MAP COMMENTS:

Zoe Updated yesterday
The sustained human transmission is supported by hard (sequence) data. Identical sequences containing multiple rare polymorphisms, including L226I, were found in patients with no contact with each other. The data are described here [link to www.recombinomics.com]
The data for sustained transmission are quite compelling.
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Updated yesterday
Actually, Dr Niman, the sequence data doesn't really support "sustained" H7N9 transmission, since the sequence features that a H7 virus requires for sustained mammalian transmission are unknown. Once could assume they are like the recent H5N1 ferret mutations, but the H7N9 does not share all of those. It's not really clear why other influenza viruses sustain human-human transmission either, other than alpha-2,6 SA binding, which maybe - *maybe* - this novel H7N9 does (studies pending). However, the epidemiological pattern that you so nicely illustrate in your Google map is rather unique for an avian influenza virus, suggesting that there is either: (1) limited human-human transmission, (2) widespread animal-human transmission, maybe much of which is subclinical except in the many severe cases in elderly patients reported by WHO. Limited human-human transmission may suggest pandemic potential, but it's jumping the gun to call this thing a "pandemic" at this time - and it's misleading for the lay public who listens to NPR and is reading your beautiful mapping. See Li, Q., et al. NEJM 29 April 2013 for the initial epidemiological study.
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niman Creator – Updated 2 days ago
Technically it is not yet a pandemic. However, I suspect that May Day will make it clear that the map represents a tiny fraction of the cases. Tonight I will go through the sequence data which STRONGLY supports SUSTAINED H7N9 transmission, which is a pandemic requirement, so the title is a month or two ahead of worldwide H7N9, but the virus is clearly taking off in China, with or without official confirmation. Tonight's 10 PM EDT will be archived and available tomorrow at [link to rense.gsradio.net:8080]
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Updated 2 days ago
Hello Dr Niman - nice Google map, thank you for your efforts. However, the term "pandemic" is inaccurate according to present information. "H7N9 Outbreak Cases & Sequences" would be more appropriate. Keep up the good KML!
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niman Creator – Updated Apr 21
A brambling H9N2 sequence from Beijing is closely related to the 6 internal genes. However, the only H7N9 sequences which match all 8 gene segments are on the map. There is a pigeon, a goose, an environmental sample, and 3 chickens sequences. All avian sequences, except for the chicken in Zhejiang, have Q226L. However, none of the avian sequences have either of the key PB2 changes (E627K or D701N) which are mammalian markers and found in all 5 human sequences (4 have E627K and 1 has D701N).
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André Updated Apr 21
Which wild birds species there have been detecting the novel H7N9 avian influenza virus?
I know there were pigeons, were identified in bramblings?
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niman Creator – Updated Apr 20
Golden sun for discharged H7N9 patients
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Updated Apr 12
Beijing today confirmed that a seven-year-old girl whose parents sell live poultry has been infected with H7N9
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Christian Updated Apr 8
Thank you!
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niman Creator – Updated Apr 4
Red pin for H7N9 confirmed bird isolates
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niman Creator – Updated Apr 3
Green marker added for suspect/confirmed case based on mixed media reports
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niman Creator – Updated Apr 2
Cases with dot in middle are alive. Blank markers are deceased, Red makers are confirmed with detail. Yellow markers are suspect cases. Blue markers are PCR confirmed with no detail.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28342676
United States
05/02/2013 01:05 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
really???


so, why less than 30 deaths in a country with over 1 billion people, in almost 2 months of "epidemics"?



bsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39146226


Maybe it's the time of year; too warm for the virus to spread efficiently.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28342676
United States
05/02/2013 01:16 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
bump
1908247

User ID: 39219732
Brazil
05/02/2013 01:18 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
really???


so, why less than 30 deaths in a country with over 1 billion people, in almost 2 months of "epidemics"?



bsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39146226


24 deaths in 128 cases

thats a high mortality rate.

human-to-human transmission has not been yet registered, but with such a high mortality rate if the virus mutates and h2h transmission become possible, then we are screwed.
- ? Nus.

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SkinnyChic

User ID: 20424649
United States
05/02/2013 01:20 PM

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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
If Recombinomics site is right, THE SHIT IS REALLY GOING TO HIT THE FAN!!damned
[link to www.recombinomics.com]
 Quoting: Sul-Americano 1063827


The Map of infected people at this link, is Doommy...

[link to maps.google.com (secure)]
 Quoting: GUAM USA


bump
SkinnyChic
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 39218259
Netherlands
05/02/2013 01:22 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
The eh mount everest looks like it has a stearing part from bs and d9 and...
Passiveobsessive

User ID: 29738085
Canada
05/02/2013 01:40 PM

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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
Thanks for the info guys! When I think of this it reminds me of the game 'plague' that I play. Its for android devices, not sure boot apple but its likely. It all begins with a low transmission rate, then of course increases due to many factors. This game is a real eye opener. Especially with a 20% ish mortality rate. Nothing to turn ones nose up at.

Probably engineered.
Passiveobsessive
Passiveobsessive

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Canada
05/02/2013 01:46 PM

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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
Any coincidence that these are all close to water sources. Just at a quick glance.
Passiveobsessive
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 39209178
Germany
05/02/2013 01:49 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
another fail..damn. i hope the next virus they create has the proper 90% mortality rate and spreads like hellfire.
QuantumKev

User ID: 632713
United States
05/02/2013 01:51 PM
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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
suuuper_doom
"It is better to be silent and thought a fool than to speak up, and remove all doubt." ~ Abraham Lincoln
Passiveobsessive

User ID: 29738085
Canada
05/02/2013 02:49 PM

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Re: We're DOOMED! H7N9 - clear evidence for sustained human transmission!!
Yuck 90%!

This has the potential. The problem is with a super virus is that it has to initially have a high transmission, or evolve into having a high transmission rate, but keeping a low mortality rate. Too lethal out of the gate and that's not ideal either. Even at 20, if this one picks up steam all the while flying under the radar in terms of symptoms look out.
If it gets to that point, I am going far far away. I'd be more concerned about something like this then I would be about an economic or war situation.

But you can't stop living either, unless your dead, in which case there's nothing to worry about :P
Passiveobsessive

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