WARNING!!!! --- May 29 2013---- WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH TORNADOES Likely This Afterneen and Evening

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH TORNADOES LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS SWD INTO NRN MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND
SOUTHWEST KS...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 65 TO 70 F RANGE
ALLOWING FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE TIMING
OF INITIATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 18Z BUT THIS APPEARS
TO BE TOO EARLY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CELL INITIATION WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT 20Z...MORE IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE. AS CELLS INITIATE...THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ENABLE
RAPID CELL INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAKE
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.



Full Outlook
May 29, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]