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Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).

 
Marlboro Man
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04/25/2006 02:27 AM
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Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
You've had some good insights in between on things, but I'm looking a bit ahead again right now. Right now oil prices are up, folks in the US are bitchin about the gas prices. But it seems that everybody already forgot what happened back in Jan/Feb this year.
I've said often that if there is going to be a crisis, Europe and the UK will get hit the hardest first. We saw a taste of this in the begining of this year already.

My question is, if these trends continue, who do you really think is going to be effected the worst, especially as it carries into next winter?
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 02:54 AM
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Wait, are you telling me nobody is looking ahead a bit here and nobody has any thoughts?
Octo

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04/25/2006 02:55 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
Good morning MM coffeecup

I guess that depends on the nature of the straw that breaks the back of this donkey of doom. But one thing is certain; we'll all feel it. If we have an energy crisis coming up next winter...well...I will freeze my ass off. The people in warmer places will experience other scenarios I reckon...
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2006 02:55 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
Jesus saves.
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 03:03 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
Hey Octo.hugs

That's what has me concerned though. We saw a slight crisis in the beginining of the year and Europe was the first to feel the effects. I'm not so sure if this one is going to drop back off our continue through the winter where it's going to effect you folks first. Every body watching the US as always, but I don't think they're seeing the near impact on the european markets.
Octo

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04/25/2006 03:10 AM
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We're all in this together MM, there's no doubt about it. But you're right, big efforts are being made to dress up the US as the bad guy... nuke
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 03:16 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
But We're just a distraction, Europe is very limited on it's oil supplies, we've already seen that if one or two supplies are cut, it trickles right out and starts to effect everybody. If oil prices stay the way they are, even without a cut, what will that do to the individual national economies?
Octo

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04/25/2006 03:33 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
We already pay twice the price you pay for gas and heating oil is getting more expensive by the month. This has also led to people looking into alternative energy sources, trying to depend less on oil. I don't own a car anymore, the house I live in is connected to the district heating network so I guess things would run for a while even if shit hits the fan... but I don't want to think about how it would affect the food prices considering the location of my country. It's probably a good idea to start looking into edible things in the neighborhood very soon damned
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 04:00 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
"It's probably a good idea to start looking into edible things in the neighborhood" scream

I'm almost afraid to ask what's edible in your neighborhood.

This is what gets me though, everybody is griping already about prices, yet they don't realize how many countries rely on oil just to get through the winter. I hope some sanity comes back to this whole mess. I'm more worried about you folks over there then us.
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 04:07 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
MM.

Octo is right, we are all in this together.

Got to say there is no safe place anymore to avoid to related effects with increasing gas prices world wide. Considering the hedge fund driven commodities insanity going on right now, it will only go up until the collapse. There is no way of deflating a bubble ... they only pop. If it does go down, then the derivative bubble pops...along with the real estate bubble which is almost has it's day as i type.

Charming stuff.


Looking at the rate of increase on oil stocks, i must say people facing the cold winters are in a real bind, unless govt steps in. People paying a mortgage plus home heating ....yikes!

I do wonder just how people facing the Northern winters are going to cope with the price increases.

This from 2005 to help paint the picture in the US.

"The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy estimated on Sept. 14 that total U.S. spending on power and energy fuels will be over $1 trillion for 2005, a 24% increase from 2004.

This will be a Winter of discontent as households cannot afford to heat their homes. The EIA forecast that, even assuming complete restoration of all Gulf energy infrastructure by Dec. 1, the natural gas retail price this Winter will average $16.65 per 1,000 cu ft (more than triple the price of the Winter of 2002-03); heating oil in the Northeast will cost $2.52/gallon, double the price of 2002-03. Mark Wolfe, the head of National Energy Assistance Directors Association, noted on Sept. 14, "A few years ago, you could heat a home for $500. Now it takes $1,500." Moreover, two Florida-based electric utilities which use a gas for electric power, Florida Power and Light and Progress Energy, have just applied for rate increases of 15% and 11%, threatening a national electric-rate spike."



Do note Florida and the realestate bubble also. Many compunding problems.

This will brake many backs, as it will also in Europe. The Euro will go down equally as fast as a US collpase, followed by the rest of us.
Octo

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04/25/2006 04:11 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
Don't worry MM...if things get real bad I'll go up to my cabin where there's no electricity, running water or other heating than a cast iron stove and a couple of fireplaces headbang



Aussie hugs
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 04:15 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
Hi Octo hi

MM check this out from a few years back. You are on the ball. Europe is going to take a big big hit.

Do note things are worse today then back in 2003.

Good picture painting article.


[link to www.larouchepub.com]


This article appears in the July 25, 2003 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.
Europe's Energy Supply:
On the Way to California
by Lothar Komp

Italy is in an energy emergency. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, the Italian energy system stood on the verge of collapse at the end of June. In order to avert the worst, the manager of the national energy grid was forced to impose targetted blackouts on several sections of Rome and other parts of Italy. There was no time for advance warnings. Thus, on June 26, thousands of Italians were suddenly in the dark; on the roads, chaos broke out on account of the disconnected traffic lights, and throughout Rome, people were locked in traffic jams, and had to be freed with help of the Fire Department. Altogether, 6 million Italians were temporarily cut off from electric power. Alberto Clo, managing director of the energy firm ENI, commented: "That the sixth-most powerful economy in the world cannot supply itself with sufficient energy, is absurd and pitiable."

Since the partial privatization of Italy's electricity sector (see article following), assured supply to the population is no longer the highest priority for the stockmarket shares of the competing power generators. Now each puts the blame on the other; besides, they say, "The national emergency was recognized for a long time."
Problem Is Europe-Wide

No one should think that Italy, even for now, is an isolated case. Everywhere in the European Union—from nation to nation—the energy sectors have, for several years, been hit with a whirlwind of confusion, as a consequence of managed deregulation at varying tempos. National suppliers were privatized; monopolies were broken up; and the electricity markets opened up even to foreign producers. All this, according to the theory, promoted competition and promised households, as it did businesses, low energy prices.

In practice, it then appears to have turned out otherwise, unfortunately. First of all, suddenly, a cross-border takeover battle has broken out in the European energy markets, just like in the telecom sector. Companies encumber themselves with debts, or go to the stock enchange in order to absorb smaller rivals. At the same time, the companies occasionally offer a ruinous price war, so that in the first two or three years after the beginning of deregulation in one area, the price of electricity actually declines. Thus the maxim holds: Whoever invests, loses. Capital expenditures in the safety and delivery capacity of electrical systems are reduced to a minimum; there are no capital expeditures on new units after the one time when they are built.

Very quickly, then, a small group of market-dominating big companies have become more and more ubiquitous, and those low prices are now a thing of the past.

Altogether, by this means, the precious reserve capacities for peak consumption periods have been driven down in the afflicted economic systems; and in some nations, even in normal times, the energy supply has been made dependent on buying considerable additional supplies from foreign countries. Finally, all that is needed now is an unusually cold Winter, or an unusually hot June or July, and catastrophe strikes.
Energy Crisis in the Land of Milk and Honey

The Scandinavian example: Norway is in a virtual paradise, with a wealth of energy production permitted. That nation is, after Saudi Arabia, the second-largest oil and gas exporter in the world. Moreover, there is an enormous potential in hydropower, so that today, 99% of Norway's own electricity requirement is generated from water. In addition to this, Norway exports electricity from hydropower on a large scale to neighboring Scandinavian countries. Norway ranks near Switzerland and a few sheikhdoms, among the nations with the highest per-capita income in the world.

Yet, in the past Winter, elderly Norwegians died in freezing cold in their homes, because they were terrified of high electric bills! The immediate cause was a particularly warm and dry Summer in 2002, followed by a dry Autumn, so that the water level of the reservoirs fell. The Winter was especially cold, and even the water supply in the reservoirs of the hydroelectric power plants froze. An energy emergency has erupted throughout Scandinavia. The prices in the northern energy Exchange North Pool tripled within a few days. In Sweden, energy prices rose 260% compared to the previous year. In Norway itself, the price of electricity exploded in February 2003 to 87 öre [[per kilowatt-hour?]], while during the typical year 2002, it was around 20 öre. In some districts in the middle of Norway, the local authorities even terminated energy distribution. Since the reservoirs are for the near future almost empty, emergency gas power plants must now be built from the ground up, on an urgent basis.

In Norway in particular, the energy crisis provoked displeasure at the market-determined energy supply. The conservative Aftenposten itself demanded a reversal of energy policy, and characterized the extreme deviations "politically explosive." Thousands of Norwegians demonstrated in front of Parliament for government intervention; for instance, by setting maximum prices or granting government subsidies for heating repairs to low-income families. The Homeowners Association, which organized the demonstration, warned of "Russian conditions" in Norwegian energy supplies.

At the beginning of the 1990s, Norway and Sweden jointly deregulated their energy sectors. Since then, electricity supply and demand alone have regulated the price. That is also to say, however, that the energy providers only make money, if the electricity each company and each private household requires to survive, is kept in short supply—"California style." Thus, the Norwegian energy companies were blamed, when, in the Summer and Fall of 2002, as the calamity in the coming Winter was already in sight, they continued to direct undiminished exports to Sweden—so that the water levels of Norway's reservoirs were deliberately allowed to fall to record lows.

In Sweden, electricity prices were hiked up in the Winter not only because of the dependence on imports from Norway. In some parts of Sweden, including Stockholm's Kista suburb—the Swedish "Silicon Valley"—there were, in addition, power shortages due to defective maintenance of the electric grid. Here, re-regulation and investments in new energy generating facilities are being considered now, along with the division between sense and nonsense about nuclear power. The cancellation of the nuclear power plant Barsebäck 2 has been deferred for the second time. The opposition demands that the Swedish law that prohibits the construction of new nuclear plants be rescinded. Finland recently declared that it wanted to build a fifth nuclear reactor.
When Will the Lights Go Out in Britain?

The deregulation of the energy sector in Great Britain—measured in electricity prices—was extremely successful, in striking contrast to the previously mentioned examples of the Italians and Scandinavians. The only problem is: It was so successful, that the largest British power producer, British Energy, has been put into bankruptcy by it, and in Autumn 2002, only a last-minute rescue package by the government saved it from going under.

British Energy, which was privatized in 1996, manages 15 nuclear plants, of which eight are in Great Britain. A quarter of all British private households get their power from British Energy. In the course of the early deregulation, numerous foreign firms, not the least of which were [[Eon and RWE]] from Germany, had bought themselves into the British electricity market. In the meantime, the wholesale prices for power had fallen by more than a third, and quite obviously below the cost of production. At the beginning of September 2002, British Energy announced that it had indebted itself so much, by problems at home and for its companies abroad, that without an immediate government rescue, it would have to file bankruptcy. The stock price of British Energy collapsed 65% within one day. The bonded debt was downgraded to "junk." The market value of the firm crashed to one-ninth of the value immediately after privatization. In the end, the government offered a financial injection in the sum of 650 million Euros for the short-term survival of the company.

Only a few weeks later, TXU Europe ran out of money. The company operated three coal power plants in Great Britain and provided four million customers with power. Here, too, the government was called on for help. In the middle of October 2002, a liquidity crisis escalated in the power company UK Coal, so that the management, in a kind of panic reaction, suddenly halted all coal deliveries to the biggest British power plant, AES Drax in North Yorkshire.

On July 1, 2003, the British Institution of Civil Engineers published an alarming study, in which it said that projecting present trends, by 2020 at the latest the lights could literally go out in Great Britain. The study reported that coal and nuclear shutdowns will make 80% of the of the energy supply of Great Britain depend on gas pipelines from politically "unstable" regions of the world: "If future gas supplies were interrupted, this country would have major difficulty in keeping the lights on ... What would happen then? Under current plans, with no gas, this country would have no electricity."
German Electric Price in Updraft

Energy market "liberalization" began in Germany in April 1998. In that country, somewhat differently than in Great Britain, state regulating authority is supposed to be renounced, and all matters are supposed to be decided through self-regulation and free agreement among associations. Here also, at first, the electricity price clearly went down, at least for industrial users. The immediate result was a dramatic clearing-out of the workforce. Altogether, within a few years, about 40,000 jobs—that is, one-quarter of the workforce of the electricity production and distribution sector—were wiped out. Meanwhile, the concentration process advanced so rapidly through countless takeovers and mergers, that the electricity price rose again, across a broad front, in the Summer of 2000. Among private households, taxes for the support of renewable energy resources and other extra energy taxes and fees had already long since eaten up the price decreases. For this year, the Electric Power Association expects an increase in average electricity costs of about 6% for Germany's private households.

Much worse, is the fact that in Germany, as in almost all other European nations, the energy infrastructure is becoming obsolete, because the investment-hostile phase of deregulation followed upon more than a decade of already-existing drops in investment in production sites and distribution networks. Thus, the yearly investment level of electricity providers in the country, since the middle of the 1980s, was halved from a barely sufficient 8 billion euros, to 4 billion euros now. Only in the first three years after reunification of East and West Germany in 1990, did the level of electricity industry investment manage a brief pickup.

For the coming years, according to energy firms' existing plans, a further drop in annual investment to 3 billion euros is foreseeable.

Up to the beginning of the next decade, one coal- and gas-fired power plant after another will have to be replaced by new capacity. Starting in 2005, on top of this, the politically motivated removal from the electricity grid of 19 nuclear energy units—which presently provide one-third of Germany's supply—is supposed to take place. To maintain the German electricity supply under these circumstances, gigantic investments by the energy firms—for the most part already highly indebted—will be necessary. An explosion of electricity prices were the likely result then.

However, the reliability of the energy supply is already in danger in Germany now. It appears paradoxical, but, with every new electric fan that is turned on in Germany, the danger of uncontrolled power cutoffs, like those in Italy and Russia, increases.

Electricity is no ordinary commodity. Once produced, it can be stored only in very limited quantities. On the other hand, the exact amount of electricity must continuously be fed into the electric grid to match the exact amount required by users, so that the grid frequency always remains around 50 Hz. Otherwise, if fluctuations in frequency occur, anything can happen—from local interruptions of power, to blackouts in large sectors. However, since the wattage of an electric fan, as everybody knows, fluctuates between 0% and 100% output, and, in practice, cannot be known, for every megawatt in an installed electric fan, one must at the same time hold an additional megawatt of electrical generating capacity in reserve. Thus, the electric fans themselves are already a subsidized business, and must be subsidized on an ongoing basis by taxpayers and electricity consumers.
Reregulate, Return to Reality

The North German Refinery (Norddeutsche Affinerie, NA), Europe's greatest copper producer, wants to redeploy half of its total 3100 workforce into a service business, because the company would otherwise have to pay out 4.5 million euros—almost a quarter of its annual profit—for special eco-electric fees. Only if one spins off the labor-intensive part of a German company, does it fall under the hard-case provision of the Renewable Energy Law (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes-EEG). NA Chief Werner Marnette said: "If this ideologically-driven nonsense does not cease, soon the raw materials industry in Germany will no longer have a chance."

It is high time to rethink the politics of energy in Europe. Decades-long neglect of investments in infrastructure; the ecological-ideological aberrations of the '70s and '80s; and, finally, the deregulation experiments of past years, have undermined the reliability of the European electricity supply to an unparalleled extent. Reregulation is necessary, to stop extreme fluctuations in the price of electricity, and make the reliability of the electricity supply again the top priority. After that, massive investments in new energy plants are needed, in which the emphasis must be placed on the most advanced technologies, including nuclear energy. At the same time, the European nations must quadruple their efforts to develop the energy production of the future—nuclear fusion power.

By carrying on with current policies, Europe will soon be subject to California conditions on a daily basis, with catastrophic consequences for workplaces and income.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2006 04:19 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
What about this Iran oil bourse that is rumored?

Won't that devalue the US dollar and boost the Euro (if it happens)?
weerman nli
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04/25/2006 04:22 AM
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octo, why are you strangling that alien?
lmao
hf
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 04:22 AM
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77852

Hassan: But, there's another thesis, that several commentators are putting forward, that in fact the underlying cause, or the underlying reason, is really because Iran is wanting to form their own Iranian euro-based oil exchange board, and this frightens the Americans.

LaRouche: No—

Hassan: This frightens the American regime and its allies, because of the fact that going over to a euro-based—it will in fact encourage many of the European states, and other countries, to start putting their money in euros, and this would create a major helpless dollar, and cause the dollar to crash. What about that thesis?

LaRouche: Well—forget it. That's a childish thesis. It has no correspondence to any reality. If the destruction of Iran—which would not be the total destruction of Iran, what's intended—but the coming in there with nuclear bunker-busters and things like that, the MEK retooled and so forth, and things like that, is not going to eliminate Iran. It's going to turn Iran from what it is now, into a focal point of destruction of the entire system.

Now, what would happen for example, to the price of petroleum, if the attack on Iran occurred? There is no knowledge as to what the ceiling would be for the price of petroleum. We're now looking at $150 to $200 a barrel.

The euro system is dead: Expect nothing from the Europeans. The Europeans are not a power. There's not a single government there that has the guts to do anything. There're bankers in there, financial interests—they have power. But the governments are totally impotent.

If it were to occur, you would plunge the entire planet into a Dark Age. That gets you right to the heart of the issue: These guys, behind this issue, are prepared to have a Dark Age! They're not entirely stupid. They're criminally insane, but they're not entirely stupid. If you get an oil price equivalent going to $200-250 a barrel, you're not going to have an empire of the euro! You're going to have a destruction of civilization globally."

[link to www.larouchepub.com]
Octo

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04/25/2006 04:31 AM
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Weerman, I abducted him and plan on keeping him stoner
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 04:34 AM
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That's one damn lucky alien.
Octo

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04/25/2006 04:40 AM
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awww... smooch


Actually it's a win/win situation cheers
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 04:42 AM
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hehe.
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 05:07 AM
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Re: Oil futures - A question for our Ausie from Perth(and others).
Thanks for coming back on that Aus, You're confirming a lot of what i've been thinking, here's the next step though. We already know there's some scares on the US dollar with folks trading into euroes. If their economy falters on the oils as well, what will happen to the Euro next and who'se going to ride out the long run?

Second question, what do you think about the new investments in Uranium? I know even Australia is getting in bed with China on that one. You folks had a three mine policy for quite some time but that is being changed to accomidate them. Uranium strikes me as the next stabile investment opposed to Euros, Gold, Platinum or Silver.
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 05:09 AM
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No such thing anymore as a stable investment.

Unless the world financial system changes, it's all over MM.

No one is going to survive. Impossible now im afraid, unless we change.
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 05:27 AM
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Hmm, duno about that Aus. People have thought it would crumble overnight as long as I can remember. Dog will continue to eat dog for a few generations yet. Seeing ahead and looking at things is the key still though.
Jack Carcano

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04/25/2006 05:29 AM
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Waaa blah blah blah more theories.
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 05:32 AM
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If it weren't for idiots like you JC, we wouldn't have any backs to stand on. Don't whine and bitch later for your short sight.
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 05:40 AM
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Let's wait and see MM. Can there be a safe bet with a collapsed world financial system??

However MM, Uranium would be a sure thing, but only if sane sovereign govts take control again. And if that happens, you can expect agreed price controls applied to Uranium.

Considering the world wide growth in Nuclear energy, that's not a bad future tip ... again only if we avoid a global dark age :-)





Hit the road Jack.
Anonymous Coward
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04/25/2006 05:40 AM
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Aussie,

(I'm an Aussie too, btw)
You seem to pinning everything on La Rouche

I'm not discounting his view, but it does seem kind of narrow to be quoting just one person
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 05:50 AM
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Nuclear energy is exactly what I was thinking Aus. Regardless of what happens, our populations will continue to grow and the first fundamental these days is electricity. We've tapped out most of our hydro resources, so the only way to continue is nuclear. Uranium is going to be in high demand.
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 05:54 AM
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77852.

'm not discounting his view, but it does seem kind of narrow to be quoting just one person"

He/EIR are incredibly consisent with truth.

Hasn't been shown up to be wrong by anybody ..ever, which people find hard to believe.

That you will have to discover for youself.
Optimistic Aussie from Perth

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04/25/2006 05:56 AM
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A future future tip is Thorium....which will replace Uranium eventually with future nuclear advancement. India has a huge supply.

:-)
JayRodney

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04/25/2006 06:01 AM
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"That's one damn lucky alien."

I resemble that remark.
Marlboro Man (OP)

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04/25/2006 06:03 AM
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Thorium scratching

Huh, back to the books. book