ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU)

piano piano people!

"What do you know about the nature of the observations made for this fragment? How many were made? Is the fragment very bright? Is it a sharp point of light, or more diffuse? All those things contribute to the uncertainities associated with the data and calculations made from the date. Probably, the large uncertainty is due to a small amount of data compared to other fragments."

I know they made observations enough to say it might come a little too close to this planet...

Nasa is factoring in prior observations?? anybody ? Are they rounding up or down.

you fools are getting sucked right in, just like with aussie bloke! When will you learn.

I think at this point they are all getting ready to hide out, they are probably just rolling dice to make the updates now...

"you fools are getting sucked right in, just like with aussie bloke! When will you learn."

Sucked into what? Last time I check we really have comets in our solar system...

why they won't warn us if the object is less than 1km (financial considerations)

[link to www.spaceref.com]
Geoff Sommer (RAND) discussed policy issues associated with a NEO mitigation system, using economic policy analysis approaches. A strong case can be made for finding NEAs larger than 1 km, since there is a compelling qualitative incentive for protecting against the end of civilization. However, the issue is more complex for sub-km impacts. Most of the scenarios proposed for this meeting skip the most critical issue - uncertainty about whether the hit will take place. In reality the uncertainty may dominate thinking. We should try to maximize net social benefit. In reality, the purpose of Spaceguard (to retire the risk) is "to reduce dread". Warning has little social value by itself; indeed the purpose of warning is vitiated without an ability to mitigate. In addition, false warnings (false positives) impose social costs that are not counterweighted by benefits. It is difficult to model the expected NEO alarm rate for any search program (How often will Earth be in an uncertainty ellipse, for how long, etc.) We have not adequately considered the social costs of warning. Note that even a minuscule reduction in percent global GDP resulting from false alarms will swamp any direct benefits in NEO hazard reduction. Possible ways to reduce the costs of false warnings (1) control or manage information (2) restrict surveys (3) demonstrate a mitigation capability. Mitigation systems have positive social value if they increase public confidence. In some cases a technically ineffectual mitigation system can still be very effective (for example, the Patriot missile defense system deployed to Israel in the 1991 Gulf War reduced fear and kept Israel out of the war even though it never successfully intercepted any incoming Iraqi missiles). Even a small start on a mitigation system may be sufficient to negate alarms and will thus will be seen as having positive social and economic value.

lol, Enchanter. It's time for Nasa to boot up the HMAAOTHOAP software.

88443

Yes, I did make sure to tell him *I* wouldn't expose his name or address in public.

If you had an account here, we could do so privately.

I can be silent no longer. I just took out a $100,000 loan from a loan shark and I'm going to spend it on strippers and hookers. I'm to go up on a secret Space Shuttle mission with the goal of destroying the comment fragments from 73P. This particular shuttle has been retrofitted with a powerful "laser" and computer targeting system to destroy the fragments that are at risk of impacting Earth.

This weapons system has never been tested against a NEO before, let's all hope it works. That's why I took out the loan. I'm going to enjoy my last few days on Earth just in case it doesn't work. Let's all enjoy the days we have left with our friends and loved ones or complete strangers if necessary.


I've included a link to a pictue of me in my Shuttle suit so you can verify can identity.

Best of luck to us all,

Poonhound

[link to www.autographseek.com]

well if i were having anybody save me, at least i know its a guy with a cool name like "poon hound". u better register that name fast....

Is that the special shuttle with super hardend Titanium.

Thanks 84505...

Here is more from the same link...

Pete Worden (BG USAF, on his last week of active duty in the Air Force) spoke on The NEO Threat and Mitigation Issues: An Air Force (barely) Perspective. A wide range of related concerns for the military include meteor storms, small (Tunguska class) NEOs, and civilization threatening NEOs. One major issue is Command and Control (e.g., need for a NEO Warning Center). Also national vs. international, civil vs. military. He finds that it is useful in briefings to emphasize recent events (atmospheric impacts). The focus for planetary defense should be on small objects (10 m to 500 m). We are making progress with the NEO hazard issue, but there is still a giggle factor within the Pentagon. DoD may have interest in dual-use technology but not in assuming responsibility for NEOs. Neither NASA or the DoD seems willing to take on this responsibility.

Why is the visual magnitude in the first link for the object in question not listed?

Because chances are good they can't "see" it... they just know it's there.

I find this ALL hard to beleive I read this on another site last year frm aussie bloke (dont know if it was the same one) anyway it turned out to be a hoax! so is it? if so I hope your getting a good laugh

lol, poonhound. Either way you are in your last days. Rave on!

Unless Aussie Bloke started working for NASA I'd say the numbers speak for themselves HUH

why is this not on the news, its not here uk, why?

"why is this not on the news, its not here uk, why?"

Freaking me out more than anything. This is like the event of a lifetime and nobody even knows about it...

Why do you think moron, so everyone could panic and sell thier stocks and call for the governments down fall...what the fuck do you think is the reason???????? They dont want us to know and panic idiot.

Everyone looks at me like I am crazy if I even mention the comet: "What comet?"

Eat a jalepeno for lunch, 86732?

Better go out and buy some food water gas and medicines for a short or long disruption. Ask yourself this question, could you survive in your house or apartment for a month without buying any food water etc? If the answer is NO, then your fucked.

mmmmm abit suss dont you think? know one is covering this, odd huh,! why?

I forwarded links to Drudge and nothing ! I think my e-mail was 1.0 AU's off from the targeted server .... Kidding aside - I've warned all I love - what more to do ?

ARMAGEDDON ASTEROIDS 'BEST KEPT SECRET' From The Independent, 15 February 2003

A scientific adviser to the United States government has suggested that secrecy might be the best option if scientists were ever to discover that a giant asteroid was on course to collide with Earth. In certain circumstances, nothing could be done to avoid such a collision and ensuing destruction, and it would be best not to tell the public anything, said Geoffrey Sommer, of the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California.

"When a problem arises with high uncertainty, there is an opportunity to spin the problem to avoid global panic. If you can't do anything about a warning, then there is no point in issuing a warning at all," Dr Sommer told the association yesterday. If an extinction-type impact is inevitable, then ignorance for the populace is bliss. As a matter of common sense, if you can't intercept it and you can't move people out of the way in time, there's nothing you can do in terms of reducing the costs of the potential impact," he said. "Overreaction not just by the public but by policy-makers scurrying around before the thing actually hits because we can't do anything about it anyway ... to a large extent you are better off not adding to your social costs," said Dr Sommer, who is also an adviser on terrorism.

"DON'T TELL PUBLIC OF DOOMSDAY ASTEROID" From The Times, 15 February 2003

The public should not be told if scientists detect a huge asteroid on a collision course with Earth that cannot be deflected, a disaster expert said. Geoff Sommer, of the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California, said that governments would be wrong to warn of an impending impact that could destroy all life if there was no realistic prospect of stopping it. The panic, misery and disruption that such a warning would cause would not be worthwhile, he told the association.

ASTEROID COVER-UP PROPOSAL CAUSES NEO COMMUNITY A CREDIBILITY CRISIS From Space Daily, 17 February 2003 by Benny Peiser

Just when you thought we had learned our lessons from past communication debacles and PR fiascoes, bizarre statements at the Denver AAAS meeting have plunged the NEO community into another crisis of credibility. "Don't tell Public of Doomsday Asteroid", reads the headline in today's The Times, while The Independent warns: "Armageddon Asteroids best kept secret." The Internet (Drudge Report, etc.) and fringe websites are already brimming with gloating links to this asteroid-cover-up story while doomsday prophets and conspiracy-theorists can't believe their good fortune: "We've told you so!"&

The international media coverage is dominated by statements by Geoffrey Sommer, a RAND researcher who has been studying the social and economic implications of the impact hazard&. It would appear that Geoff Sommer is not so much concerned about the cost-effective handling of the apocalypse but about the future management of notoriously tricky impact risk uncertainties&.This argumetation does - unintentionally - raise one fundamental (while highly unlikely) question: Since there may be impact survivors, isn't it is our ethical obligation to do everything in our power to inform the public as soon as necessary so to increase the chances of human survival? I, for one, firmly believe it is! &

The damage of contemplating a cover-up stratagem will be immense: it will strengthen the erroneous but widespread suspicion that some members of the NEO community are more concerned about covering-up or "spinning" than explaining the facts truthfully. The price we will pay for the increased mistrust this episode is causing is very high. In fact, it is much higher than any of the inadvertent asteroid scares of the last 4 years. I fear it will also be more difficult to repair the damage it has done to our integrity.

--------------------------------

REACTION FROM DAVID WHITEHOUSE, the BBC reporter who started the media hyperbole over asteroid 2002 NT7 last summer when he reported that it was on a collision course with the Earth. Peisers CCNet published the following note from Whitehouse on February 17:

I am quite amazed that there are some in the NEO community who have the audacity to think that if an NEO is found that is on, or suspected to be on, a collision course with the Earth then the public should not be told at any stage because if nothing can be done then why alarm people about something they cannot do anything about. Let them be ignorant until the end, unless perhaps they happen to live next door to a knowing NEO researcher!

Who gives them the right to make such a decision? Who actually would make such the decision? What would be their qualifications, their accountability? Is this really regarded as being a responsible and accountable stance by those whose salaries are paid out of the public purse? Indeed, I wonder if this notion really has much support in the NEO community?

The ethics of such a stance are unsupportable. There are other areas of science where the 'they don't need to know' argument has been debated and discounted as unethical.

from:
[link to nai.arc.nasa.gov]

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]
It's on the bbc news page.
I think they need to add more doom it's far too watered down.

OLD LINK