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ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU)
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Dilatoriness
User ID: 51202
 Austria
5/1/2006 8:45 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
" Thanks for making me laugh - No - Really "
It was meant to be ironic.
I am here to challenge your indoctrinated false belief that flaming queens don't use shovels ... |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77104
 United States
5/1/2006 8:45 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
somebody is about to give mother earth an enema !! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 10264
United States
5/1/2006 8:45 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Well this is not good at all.
From the NASA website:
"Miss Distance (LD,AU) The most likely (Nominal) and minimum possible (Minimum) miss distances are given in LD (Lunar Distance) and AU. The minimum possible distance is based on the 3-sigma Earth target-plane error ellipse."
If you notice the minimal miss distance in lunar distance (LD) is 0.0 The AU number of .0001 is the lowest number they could report since they only go out 4 digits. They could not report 0.0000001 AU for example.
They could have posted 0.1 LD which would have been around 23000 miles but they did not, so it's coming closer than that!
Earth's gravity has to factor in at some point:
[link to www.meteorcrater.com] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118
United States
5/1/2006 8:46 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Most watched comet and NASA has blatantly scary data without correcting? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 87935
United States
5/1/2006 8:47 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Dil, There is not another BD on that link to compare. Just to speculate, are the number of fragments increasing? and would that cause some unforseen calculation error in the software. I have limited knowledge of software(I still have my slide rule,,,so I'm old news ;>).Couldn't hurt to email a question... |
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Illuminus
User ID: 75886
United States
5/1/2006 8:48 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Maybe I'm not making this clear enough. The main reason why the minimum miss distance of 0.0001 AU most likely NOT an error is the following:
The object 73P/S-W 3-BD has a sigma factor 3, meaning the variance in position of the NEO is uncertain up to 0.1 AU. With a Nominal Miss Distance of 0.0867 AU and a sigma 3 this means THEY HAVE NO CLUE IF IT WILL HIT OR NOT!
This is because the the level UNCERTANITY of whether it will hit or not is GREATER than the EXPECTED miss distance.
Got it? Good!
Big question is how big is this thing, how fast will it be coming in at (if it hits), and are comets just dirty snow balls (what will it's composition be)?
I did send an email to NASA requesting them to double check their numbers, but knowing them they won't get back to me for a few weeks. |
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Dilatoriness
User ID: 51202
Austria
5/1/2006 8:48 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
12118, I am going to sleep so I hope I'll find their response posted here tomorrow.
I am here to challenge your indoctrinated false belief that flaming queens don't use shovels ... |
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m4socalm
User ID: 6429
 Canada
5/1/2006 8:49 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Sweet...dooomed by dirty frozen buckshot!
lol k/d!
How big is this thing? tail n all? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118
United States
5/1/2006 8:51 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Victor, okey dokey then!
Sigma 3 is another oddity of this one. |
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What?
User ID: 85321
United States
5/1/2006 8:53 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Folks,
Check out the cult numbers below NASA just Can not help but use!
11, 33 & that damn tetrahedral 14.7, wow! I wonder if this is doctored or the actual numbers? Maybe the site
was hacked (I hope so) or we are really in for a real whacking.
No wonder everyone has been seeing 11:11 for the last
couple of years. Is this a joke or not? Toss in 21:53 adding up to
11 and we have cult symbolism all over this thing:
21:53 = 2 + 1 + 5 + 3 = 11 talk about tossing us a bone. Yikes this
Could be a real doo-do hits the oscillator event.
Good Luck - God Help US All
What?
Close-Approach Date
2006-May-11 21:53 ± 11:11
Miss Distance
Nominal
33.7/0.0867
V
relative
(km/s)
14.79
N
sigma
3 |
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Illuminus
User ID: 75886
United States
5/1/2006 8:53 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
m4socalm,
I wish you hadn't asked that:
Paul Francis, a comet specialist at Canberra's Mount Stromlo Observatory, said landing on a comet would be like walking on polystyrene. Schwassmann-Wachmann 3's fragments "are spread over about 6 million kilometres … The tails of the bigger fragment extend around 2 million kilometres."
[link to www.smh.com.au]
 |
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m4socalm
User ID: 6429
Canada
5/1/2006 8:55 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
heres an upload link of 73P probably taken some days ago, for those who haven't seen it yet.
[link to download.yousendit.com]
Watch that tail |
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Dilatoriness
User ID: 51202
Austria
5/1/2006 8:57 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
OK:
The Sigma factor of fragment 3-AK eg is 5.81 on the same chart (ninth object from above) and so is comparable to the 3 of 3-BD (on top of the list) which is our concern.
Now look at the ratio of Minimum to Nominal Distance there, it's only about 1/2 so a three can never mean 1/900 like it is shown!!!!
Tho not in astronomy I have to deal with many charts at my job nevertheless and to me it looks this cannot be.
I am here to challenge your indoctrinated false belief that flaming queens don't use shovels ... |
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ac
User ID: 88092
United States
5/1/2006 8:58 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
So what's your timeline for the big one Vic? |
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Ok, I'm worried now
User ID: 87935
United States
5/1/2006 9:05 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Now Dil is posting while sleeping :p.  |
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Dilatoriness
User ID: 51202
Austria
5/1/2006 9:08 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
LOL,
OK now I am really off to bed, OMG it's three in the morning here already.
I am here to challenge your indoctrinated false belief that flaming queens don't use shovels ... |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 87206
United States
5/1/2006 9:10 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
I seriously doubt that any fragment large enough to track will be alone. If we are going to get hit, expect fireballs before a larger fragment hits. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62234
United States
5/1/2006 9:11 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Everyone should go to their local news website and e-mail them a link to the NEO site - a link to this thread and lets see if it makes the news. This Comet has gotten NO press and now look at the number of frags - surely that alone is "News Worthy" |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62234
United States
5/1/2006 9:12 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Plus we will know best vieing by 6pm news tomorrow if true ! |
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Illuminus
User ID: 75886
United States
5/1/2006 9:12 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Info about the tail, email from Astronomer. Doc's name is hidden cause ya'll are psychos. May be interesting to you guys:
-----Original Message-----
From: xxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:xxx@xxx]
Sent: Monday, May 01, 2006 7:08 PM
To: xxxx
Subject: Re: Question about 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann
Dear xxxx,
The tail is made of particles ranging in size from metres down to
micron-sized grains and even smaller. The bigger lumps tend to stay
in the same orbit as the comet nucleus, but the smaller grains are
pushed out of this orbit by the pressure of the Sun's radiation,
which is what creates the tail we see (the big lumps are too few for
us to see).
The small grains are being blown away from the San, and hence
will not reach the Earth. The bigger lumps will be travelling in the
same path as the fragments we see, just in-front of or behind it.
They will thus comfortably miss the Earth this time around, by about
12 million kilometres. Over the next few thousand years, however,
they will spread further and further around this orbit, and be warped
in their paths by the gravity of the planets, until they end up
spread throughout the whole inner solar system. At this point some of
the fragments will almost certainly hit the Earth. This is the origin
of many meteorites - they are the remains of comets that broke up in
the past. The various meteor showers we see during the year occur
when we pass through the orbital path of long-dead comets. All comets
seem to break up eventually - there is about a 2% chance of any given
comet breaking up during each orbit around the Sun (due to the heat
from the Sun melting gasses deep within them).
Make sense?
Cheers,
Dr. xxxxxxxxxxx |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 87935
United States
5/1/2006 9:13 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Dil call me crazy, but moving the decimal three places vs 5 is not comparable. |
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m4socalm
User ID: 6429
Canada
5/1/2006 9:15 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Thx man yes it did. |
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Watchman
User ID: 87579
United States
5/1/2006 9:17 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
The Fireball is Coming!
If you want to know what is going to happen, listen to these five radio programs:
[link to www.trunews.com] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 81507
United States
5/1/2006 9:20 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
One or more is going to hit. I'm serious. Timing will be 5-11 through 5-25. Watch the skies. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62234
United States
5/1/2006 9:21 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Gasp -
OLD ARTICLE BUT READ :
Astronomers said they think J002E3 fell back under Earth's spell when it passed through one of numerous LaGrange points, or "portals" in space where the gravity of the sun and Earth cancel each other out.
[link to archives.cnn.com]
Where by chance if anyone knows are these located in respect to our rendevous point with this one ???  ? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79042
United States
5/1/2006 9:22 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Damn, I just KNEW IT! We're DOOMED! |
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SS
User ID: 82695
United States
5/1/2006 9:23 PM
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Watchman
User ID: 87579
United States
5/1/2006 9:25 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
You're only doomed if the blood of Jesus Christ isn't on your heart and forehead. People are running out of time to get their lives right with God. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62234
United States
5/1/2006 9:29 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Don't bring Jesus into it please ! Jesus himself would be heading for a cave if this all is accurate shhhh |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 88131
United States
5/1/2006 9:30 PM | | Re: ALERT: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD (Minimum Miss Distance: 0.0001 AU) | Quote |
Bible says it's a sign, its arrival 11:11
Blessed be the name of the Lord!
It's time to get to know Jesus if you don't. |
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