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73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth.
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Pollyannuh
User ID: 46877
5/1/2006 11:52 PM
Report abusive post | 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth.
| Quote |
Someone correct me, please!
I remember hearing or reading that if a comet or asteroid were to pass in .001 LD of earth, it's considered a direct hit.
Correct me so I can go to sleep.
Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth..at link.
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov] |
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Pollyannuh
User ID: 46877
5/1/2006 11:56 PM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Anyone???
Please? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 731
5/1/2006 11:58 PM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
woot 2 pins... |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 88180
5/2/2006 12:00 AM | |
Biff
User ID: 11276
5/2/2006 12:03 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Polly, more than likely, we are going to get hit.
Here is the logic.
When the primary comet disintegrated, the pieces trailing, made impact actions against one another.
This acted like a brake on a train, and the velocity of the tail, slowed way way down.
The;length of the tail, is now over two million kilometers in length.
Plus there have been indications, that there is something more than ice, within that tail, which might be rock.
In a past thread, there was a statement that two asteroids were with 73P.
Poster HidiLore, would not answer the question, how she is sure, that the comments have left.
I personally, am almost sure that Earth will at least impact some parts of Earth. |
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Pollyannuh
User ID: 46877
5/2/2006 12:05 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Thanks, A.C. 88180.
How I missed that large thread is beyond me.
So, is it considered a direct hit or not? |
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Pollyannuh
User ID: 46877
5/2/2006 12:07 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
A.C. 11276, I didn't get your post until after I posted my question again.
Guess I'll go to bed.
Not a dayum other thing I can do if it is going to hit.
Thanks, A.C. |
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HeidiLore
User ID: 85208
5/2/2006 12:09 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Biff, I am unsure what you are alluding to...if I recall correctly, it was about a picture with the two asteroids that was taken a few years ago. Scientifically, it is highly unlikely that the asteroids are still accompanying the current comet. There has been no information regarding this through recent photographs of the comet...you would surely know if it was currently occurring.
Visit my website...
[link to heidi-lore.tripod.com]
Need to email? heidilore@gmail.com
Visit the GLP video site and click on groups:
[link to youtube.com]
_____________
The only difference between the Republican and Democratic parties is the velocities with which their knees hit the floor when corporations knock on their door. That's the only difference.
I believe I can see the future, 'cause I repeat the same routine. I think I used to have a purpose, but then again, it might have been a dream |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 86732
5/4/2006 9:07 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
This is an important thread lets keep it alive. |
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asan
User ID: 75343
5/4/2006 9:13 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
#
May 3: there are as yet unconfirmed reports that B is in outburst (which means it may have brightened significantly) as well as an abrupt change in morphology of the nucleus.
#
May 2: images are once again showing a double nucleus in component B
#
May 1: C is naked eye, B is obvious in binoculars, G is difficult, R is in outburst and now visible in an 8-inch telescope. See the Current Appearance section below for more info.
[link to www.skyhound.com]
www.skyhound.com/sh/73P.html |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89170
5/4/2006 9:14 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Wow This is Scary.... !
That is really coming close to us. OMFG
OMG OMG
DOOOOOOOOM !!!!!!!!! |
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Bear
User ID: 86671
5/4/2006 9:17 AM
 | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
What amazes me is the press is talking about us going through the tail of Hally's. Now how long is that sucker and then think about the tail and debris of Schwasmann
"Opinions are like assholes everbody has one" |
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SHR
User ID: 83219
5/4/2006 9:28 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
That's .0001 AU not LD. The difference is the difference between the distance to the moon and the distance to the sun. I'm pretty sure the sun is farther away then the moon, let me check, yup, it ain't 7 million degrees outside so I think we're good to go. Don't worry, it's just a tangusta bloke scarathon, we ain't gonna get hammered, and even if we do get blasted, it'll set global warming back, big time, LOL. Even if it only comes close it'll just rip our atmoshpere off, ain't no thang. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89170
5/4/2006 9:37 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
ya its 0.04 LD and 0.00010 AU
meaning 9,200 Miles
Thats freaking close. |
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j.
User ID: 89198
5/4/2006 10:39 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
These charts updates promptly, from what I've seen.
Near Earth Comets (NEC)
at this time, all 60 comets are from 73P/SW
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]
73P/SW 3-BD
2006-May-11
21:53 ± 11:11
Max MD: 33.7 LD / 0.0867 AU
Min. MD: 0.04 LD / 0.00010 AU
73P/SW 3-AD
2006-May-15
23:40 ± 1_07:05
Max MD: 23.0 LD / 0.0592 AU
Min MD: 11.3 LD / 0.0290 AU
Near Earth Asteroids (NEA)
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]
(2006 HX57)
2006-May-06
14:31 ± < 00:01
Max MD: 3.0 LD / 0.0076 AU
Min.MD: 2.9 LD / 0.0076 AU1
(2006 HU50)
2006-May-04
14:08 ± < 00:01
Max MD: 3.8 LD / 0.0098 AU
Min. MD: 3.8 LD / 0.0098 AU
Near Earth Objects (NEO)
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA)
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]
(2006 GY2)
2006-May-16
04:31 ± 00:01
Max MD: 6.7 LD / 0.0171 AU
Min. MD: 6.6 LD / 0.0171 AU
(2004 DC)
2006-Jun-03
19:56 ± < 00:01
Max MD: 10.1 LD / 0.0259 AU
Min. MD: 10.1 LD / 0.0259 AU
(2006 HQ30)
2006-Jun-13
11:58 ± 01:41
Max MD: 14.9 LD / 0.0384 AU
Min. MD: 14.7 LD / 0.0377 AU
(2006 HC2)
2006-May-10
22:05 ± 00:04
Max MD: 38.1 LD / 0.0980 AU
Min. MD: 37.2 LD / 0.0955 AU
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Please tell me...
If the closest comet fragment (73P/SW 3-BD) is max 33.7 LD and min. 0.04 LD...
and the closest asteroid (2006 GY2) is max 6.7 LD and min 6.6 LD...
and that asteroid is considered 'potentially hazardous' at 6.6 LD --
but in the NEA table there are asteroids at max 3.0 LD --- twice as close...
then what do they consider a comet fragment which (may be) 6.56 LDs CLOSER than the 'potentially hazardous' asteroid??
 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62398
5/4/2006 10:48 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
''meaning 9,200 Miles''
to the CENTRE of the planet.
Take off about 3500 miles to get the distance from the SURFACE.
Several posters explained yesterday that THAT miss distance is the least probable one to happen. It'll probably miss by 11 or 12 Lunar distances. PROBABLY. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 86321
5/4/2006 10:49 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
A comet is composed of a high percentage of various ices. Under the energy of the sun’s heat or the heat of a nuclear bomb, these ices will change into a gaseous state that can work like a jet engine thrusting a comet into a different trajectory. To put this point in context, the NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), observed over 10,000 tons of water vapor per hour pouring off Hyakutake’s comet nucleus.23 I believe that fracturing the comet into several pieces is a strong approach because it will maximize the surface area of exposed ices to the effect of solar radiation. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 88503
5/4/2006 10:54 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
No, read it dummy. It says the miss distance MINIMAL is 0.0001 LD. The nominal, or most statistically likely miss distance is 33.7 LD. Even at 0,0001, that's close, but it;s still a miss. So, the most likely miss distance is 33.7 LD (NOT 0.0001 LD0. with the statitistical likelihood decreasing to a less and less like probability as the distance gets closer to 0.0001.
Just look at the chart and see if you can understand what minimal and nominal means!
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62398
5/4/2006 11:14 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
got a link to the 350ft? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8595
5/4/2006 11:20 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
The minimal miss distance is a a 3 sigma value. That means it has a probability of about 1/10000 happening. As the miss distance increases the probabilty goes up until you get the nominal miss distance which is the most probable.
However compare these nominal and 3 sigma miss distances to the other comet fragments. The other fragments are much better understood. This fragment is not very well understood, thus the wide delta between nominal and 3 sigma miss distance. This indicates to me that there are many variables that they cannot accurately predict for this fragment, and they are not really very sure of its path. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8595
5/4/2006 11:22 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Also there is an assumption that these fragments are all dirty ice. If I remember correctly the definition of assume "makes an ass out of you and me". |
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Parsingman
User ID: 75701
5/4/2006 11:37 AM
 | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
"No, read it dummy. It says the miss distance MINIMAL is 0.0001 LD. The nominal, or most statistically likely miss distance is 33.7 LD."
Please keep this civil.
Look closer and you will see that it says
Miss Distance
Minimum
(LD/AU)
0.04/0.00010
hence the miss distance MINIMAL is 0.00010 *AU*, not LD.
Are we all agreed now?
"When the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to treat everything as if
it were a nail."
-- Abraham Maslow |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 86321
5/4/2006 11:37 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
>>>That means it has a probability of about 1/10000 happening.
Is that a 1 in 10000 chance of being the min distance?
1:1,000,000 getting hit by lightening
1:2,598,960 getting royal flush
1:154,000,000 winning powerball |
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BUSH MUST GO
User ID: 67500
5/4/2006 11:42 AM
 | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Pollyannuh,
Got a Comet close-up for ya'...
[link to www.seriouswheels.com]
BMG 
'Link, Copy, Paste, & Disseminate!' |
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j.
User ID: 89198
5/4/2006 11:44 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Which 'dummy' are you referring to?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 88503
No, read it dummy.
"It says the miss distance MINIMAL is 0.0001 LD."
------
You don't know how to interpret the chart, do you?
The miss distance minimum is
0.04 LD.
LD is 'Lunar Distance', the approximate distance between Earth and Moon.
the slash divides LD from AU
( LD......../......AU )
( 0.04..../.....0.00010 )
Miss distance minimum at 0.00010 is the AU measurement.
AU is 'Astronomical Unit', which is the approximate distance between Earth and Sun.
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So until you factor in and correct your mistakes, 88503 -- the rest of your post is also wrong.
__________________
You're pretty arrogant.
Maybe you should dismount that high horse before someone knocks you off.
-dummy |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8595
5/4/2006 11:45 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Correct probability. And .0001 AU is still 9300 miles, .04 LD is the same measurement. That is "assuming" that they have predicted the trajectory correct. The wide variance between nominal miss and 3 sigma miss means they don't understand all the factors that make up the trajectory of this fragment. If they did then the delta between the nominal and 3 sigma would be tighter, just like the other fragments in the table. I don't think they fully understand the trajectory of this fragment.
Hmmm what is the probability that the miss distance is 1 LD (8% or ?)? So maybe its a 1/100 chance of hitting the moon? Who knows, Nasa maybe, and would they tell you. What about other fragments that are not reflective and they identified all fragments. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8595
5/4/2006 11:47 AM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Dust cloud and other fragments could still be a problem days after May 11. The comet fragments will also cross the earth orbit ahead of the earth toward June, but what about any lagging dust cloud or other slower fragments? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 80688
5/4/2006 11:58 AM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2480
5/4/2006 12:02 PM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
Look out!!
oh shit here it comes
 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89225
5/4/2006 12:03 PM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
I find it impressive that, as the time to passage decreases, that they don't have any more precise estimates posted. This is one hell of a vast area that this thing is going to pass through. And yet, they can't give more precise estimates at less than a week in advance? To me, this just SMELLS strange.
Also, all it would take is one extra "0" to the left of the 1 in the minimum AU to have a direct hit. And the 11 hours and 11 minutes window (11:11) to either side of the time of passage is indeed curious also, given the rest of the NEO post. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 84505
5/4/2006 12:08 PM | | Re: 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-BD - Fragment 36 to pass .001 LD to Earth. | Quote |
also, why haven't they posted new photos of this in May?
they are still pushing the photos taken from April 13-18 |
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