UPDATE: INVEST 90L OFF CAPE HATTERAS, EAST COAST!!! It has the classic look of a subtropical cyclone

Canadian GEM hi res develops a weak STS off the NJ coast by Friday morning. I've seen this happen before with similar set-ups. Lots "o" instability and from time to time the convective feedback is real.

[link to weather.gc.ca]

there are several "pivots" involved here. The first one is just headed off the SE coast of GA. The second vort max is over southern AL and the last piece is the one you showed in OK. We are going to get a rare summertime negatively tilted trough here in the eastern US. This is going to be a decent storm, maybe sub-tropical or something along those lines. Cape Hatteras north will be impacted by this storm from Friday and into the weekend.

Actually that energy is for the second nor'easter forecasted to develop this weekend near the Bahamas. A mid level low over GA is responsible for the nor'easter this week hitting SNE.

ncstorm has been saying that for days and I have been watching the models too show this area. Major convective explosion off of NC and SC in association with mid level low over GA

Crap.....like we need MORE rain

Well at least it will warm back up

five and bump.
Delmarva Peninsula, Wilmington, Philly?

probably rain only, I guess. Wanted to add that we are really cool here today, overcast.

Strobing lightning lately. Weird weather.

Last Edited by beeches on 07/24/2013 11:58 AM

On TWC Channel right now, a special story covering the "Superstorm Sandy Baby Boom"

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

Oh yay!

Hi Luis!!!

Hi Luis,

Do you hear any chatter on if this will affect NY Brooklyn area Saturday afternoon in any way? Someone I know has an outdoor wedding planned but yesterday Weather Channel said only 10% chance rain and I don't have time to look more into it. Hoping for best.

Thank you so much for your threads.

take care.

YES THAT'S IT!

Yay more rain



Its rained so much here this summer that my garden and its plants are struggling to survive

Guess I should've brought my tomato plants in

Meanwhile the always overzealous CMC likes 99L, shows the system off the East Coast and keeps Dorian fairly weak through 66 hrs. [link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

[link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

What do you think for the nc/sc coast for next few days?

rain+rain at least... with hurricane dorian it will be a huge disaster!

i really hope i'm wrong!

...EAST COAST TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF

DIFFICULT FORECAST SHAPING UP HERE...AND CONFIDENCE MAY CONTINUE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. A
SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STRUCTURE SHOULD
YIELD LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSE
TO THE AVERAGE OF THE 12Z NAM WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE 12Z
GFS...HOWEVER...BECAME MUCH FASTER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
THE INITIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM INTRODUCES A WRINKLE...WITH
A BROAD LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST OF FLORIDA. THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE OVERLY DEVELOPED WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS IT OFTEN IS AT LOWER LATITUDES...THE GENERAL
IDEA MAY HAVE SOME MERIT. THERE IS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT WANT TO PINCH OFF SOME
TROUGHING IN THAT AREA WHILE THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH RELOADS BACK
OVER THE CONTINENT.

Mark Sudduth ‏@hurricanetrack 1h
And as if Dorian were not enough to watch, there is now a 99L out in the open Atlantic and a low pressure area coming off GA towards water.

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 4 min
Heavy rain likely for New York City, Boston: [link to www.accuweather.com]

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 58 m
@aderfineb The rain will be heaviest east of the city

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 2h
@aderfineb Rain is likely Thursday into Friday

Thanks for always looking out for us Luis!!

RAIN ?