...EAST COAST TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF

DIFFICULT FORECAST SHAPING UP HERE...AND CONFIDENCE MAY CONTINUE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. A
SHARPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STRUCTURE SHOULD
YIELD LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSE
TO THE AVERAGE OF THE 12Z NAM WITH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE 12Z
GFS...HOWEVER...BECAME MUCH FASTER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
THE INITIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO BE
TOO FAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM INTRODUCES A WRINKLE...WITH
A BROAD LOW CLOSING OFF AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE EAST OF FLORIDA. THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE OVERLY DEVELOPED WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS IT OFTEN IS AT LOWER LATITUDES...THE GENERAL
IDEA MAY HAVE SOME MERIT. THERE IS SUPPORT FROM A NUMBER OF
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT WANT TO PINCH OFF SOME
TROUGHING IN THAT AREA WHILE THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH RELOADS BACK
OVER THE CONTINENT.