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Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun

 
DoorBert

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07/25/2013 07:36 AM

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Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
GFS is looking wicked - all interests on the East Coast needs to keep a close eye on this.

Currently has a dead nuts hit on Miami following an Andrew scenario.

Its been defying all the mets and continues to strengthen.

Forecast track hasn't changed much in the last 24 hrs.

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

Stay tuned for updates.



BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 07/25/2013 11:49 AM
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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07/25/2013 07:40 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
gut felling get ready for some crazy storms hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 07:42 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 07:43 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
gut felling get ready for some crazy storms hiding
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Morning GFG

hf


Has really improved dramatically last couple hours.

Much better upper-level outflow as seen on water-vapor satellite loop.

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 07:44 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 07:45 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 07:52 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Can anyone check radiation levels wherever the storm strikes, before and after the storm. It would be interesting to see if and what the change is.
ISLANDIA

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07/25/2013 07:53 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Doorbert

Please have that Trac changed it is about to ruin our vacation.

Keep us posted!
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 07:56 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Doorbert

Please have that Trac changed it is about to ruin our vacation.

Keep us posted!
 Quoting: ISLANDIA


OK - I'll call the folks at HAARP.

Enjoy your vacation - keeping my fingers crossed for you.
JanJan

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07/25/2013 08:01 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Oh NOOOOO!

Not ready for another one!

Am at work and can't watch the vids - will it course up into the northeast?!

It is quite cool here this morning - big change from last week. Feels more like early fall. Last week felt like late hell... .

Thanks for keeping us posted!

Oh and... 5*s and PIN for more updates

bumpbumpbumpbump
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 08:06 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Oh NOOOOO!

Not ready for another one!

Am at work and can't watch the vids - will it course up into the northeast?!

It is quite cool here this morning - big change from last week. Feels more like early fall. Last week felt like late hell... .

Thanks for keeping us posted!

Oh and... 5*s and PIN for more updates

bumpbumpbumpbump
 Quoting: JanJan


hfhfhf
ancha

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07/25/2013 08:22 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Can anyone check radiation levels wherever the storm strikes, before and after the storm. It would be interesting to see if and what the change is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43571177


This is an excellent idea.
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 08:22 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Better not hit near Miami or florida as right on the other side in the Gulf there's that gas rig that exploded, they better get that leak under control 1st & those train cars that derailed in Port of Tampa leaking Ethanol
>~* Flutterby Fringe*~<
000 111 000

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07/25/2013 08:27 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
The name of the storm is very telling hf


Dorian is a name of Greek origin meaning "from Doris", or alternatively from the Gaelic name Doireann meaning "tempestuous weather"


[link to en.wikipedia.org]


Stay safe and aware !
" I have Lost My Religion and found My Spirituality "

If it were not for My Life's Lessons I would not be Who I am today. "Thank You"

" I will NOT ... Give up: Give in: or admit defeat: I will overcome all obstacles in my path and reach the mark/goal and gateway out: :)) "
"It is Wholeness and Balance That I seek"
Goofy for God
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07/25/2013 08:36 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
NOAA's storm tracker and spaghetti models are in general agreement that the projected path of Tropical Storm Dorian will continue west or west-northwest over the next couple of days. Dorian is expected to continue over much warmer seawater than previously forecast which diminishes the chances of some slight short-term weakening.



[link to news.brevardtimes.com]

look at radar at bottom hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 09:06 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Dorian: winds up to 60mph. Little change in track overnight.

[link to www.facebook.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 09:09 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013

DORIAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH IT WAS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM CIMSS WAS 48 KT. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. DORIAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IT LIES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN
SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
TO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 09:10 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Watching Tropical Storm Dorian

[link to www.weather.com]
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 09:22 AM
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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
With everyone anticipating an East coast landfall, watch Dorian pull a sneaky and squeeze into the Gulf of Mexico for a Texas-Alabama corridor hit.

hiding
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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07/25/2013 09:24 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Too early to tell. Have to wait 3-5 days to have a clearer picture of where it will strike. Could be a fish storm in the end.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 09:59 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Dorian has to be watched closely as it tracks steadily westward

Right now, the storm is fairly strong at 60 mph with a pressure now below 1000 mb. This is not surprising considering the well defined structure easily seen in satellite imagery. Do not be shocked if Dorian becomes a hurricane over the next few days.

[link to hurricanetrack.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 11:48 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Latest NAVGEM has it running the Florida Strait into the Keys and the GOM.

If that happens, it'll be all hell breaking loose.

[link to www.fnmoc.navy.mil (secure)]
>~* Flutterby Fringe*~<
000 111 000

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07/25/2013 11:49 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Latest NAVGEM has it running the Florida Strait into the Keys and the GOM.

If that happens, it'll be all hell breaking loose.

[link to www.fnmoc.navy.mil (secure)]
 Quoting: DoorBert


I will share this with my friends here Doorbert , Thanks so much for all your hard work hf
" I have Lost My Religion and found My Spirituality "

If it were not for My Life's Lessons I would not be Who I am today. "Thank You"

" I will NOT ... Give up: Give in: or admit defeat: I will overcome all obstacles in my path and reach the mark/goal and gateway out: :)) "
"It is Wholeness and Balance That I seek"
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 11:50 AM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Latest NAVGEM has it running the Florida Strait into the Keys and the GOM.

If that happens, it'll be all hell breaking loose.

[link to www.fnmoc.navy.mil (secure)]
 Quoting: DoorBert


I will share this with my friends here Doorbert , Thanks so much for all your hard work hf
 Quoting: >~* Flutterby Fringe*~<


cheers
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 01:42 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Hurricane Hunters start flying Sunday


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 25 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES FOR TROPICAL
STORM DORIAN AT 28/1200Z NEAR 19.8N 57.0W.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 02:40 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Hurricane Hunters are tracking Tropical Storm Dorian while also keeping a watchful eye on the bottom line. Military officials said with sequestration and furloughs, the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is facing some tough choices as to which storms they fly into and how often. They said that means the forecast models we depend on to tell people to evacuate may not be as accurate.

[link to m.wafb.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 04:21 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Latest CMC takes it into the GOM thru the FL-Straits as well.

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/25/2013 04:23 PM

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Re: Trop Storm Dorian continues to Strengthen in the Atlantic - Anywhere from Gulf-of-Mexico to East Coast is Under the Gun
Latest CMC takes it into the GOM thru the FL-Straits as well.

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
 Quoting: DoorBert


So does Euro

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

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