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ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 05:01 PM
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ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Defining Backwardation

First, letS introduce a key concept. Most traders define "backwardation" for a commodity as when the price of a futures contract is lower than the price of the same good in the spot market.

In every market, there are always two prices for a good: the bid and the ask. To sell a good, one must take the bid. And likewise, to buy the good, one must pay the ask. In backwardation, one can sell a physical good for cash and simultaneously buy a futures contract, and make a profit on the arbitrage. Note that in doing this trade, one's position does not change in the end. One begins with a certain amount of the good and ends (upon maturity of the contract) with that same amount of the good.

Backwardation is when the bid in the spot market is greater than the ask in the futures market.

[link to www.caseyresearch.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
The time is now fast approaching when all debt will be defaulted on. In our perverse monetary system, one party's debt is another's "money." A debtor's default will impact the creditor (who is usually also a debtor to yet other creditors), causing him to default, and so on. When this begins in earnest, it will wipe out the banking system and thus everyone's "money." The paper currencies will not survive this. We are seeing the early edges of it now in the euro, and it's anyone's guess when it will happen in Japan, though it seems long overdue already. Last of all, it will come to the USA.
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Why Gold Backwardation Is Important

Could backwardation happen with gold? Gold is not in shortage. One just has to measure abundance using the right metric. If you look at the inventories divided by annual mine production, the World Gold Council estimates this number to be around 80 years.

In all other commodities (except silver), inventories represent a few months of production. Other commodities can even have "gluts," which usually lead to a price collapse. As an aside, this fact makes gold good for money. The price of gold does not decline, no matter how much of the stuff is produced. Production will certainly not lead to a "glut" in the gold market pulling prices downward.
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
A key support of these theories is the backwardation in gold – the spot price is higher than the near future contract. That's unusual. It could normally be resolved by selling spot gold and buying the cheaper future one month out. Thus, in a month, you would reap an apparent locked-in, riskless profit. Yet no one seems to be doing it. Is there doubt that there is gold in storage that will be deliverable in a month? So, the theorists assume.

Read more: [link to www.businessinsider.com]
Drunk Uncle
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07/25/2013 05:10 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Well fucking bring it on already...
I'm here for three reasons, talking about booze, hitting on chicks with hot avatars, bringing knowledge only an uncle knows and learning how to count...

Less thinking, more drinking...
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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07/25/2013 05:20 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Well fucking bring it on already...
 Quoting: Drunk Uncle


MANY are waiting...time will tell...so estimate with 2 weeks..some say October..
Anonymous Coward
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
weirdo
Cudilicious

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07/25/2013 05:27 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
When this is reaching 0 it's all over:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

Just look how close we are at the moment! (Please ZOOM!)

5a

Last Edited by Cudilicious on 07/25/2013 05:28 PM
Cudilicious

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07/25/2013 05:32 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
bump
Cudilicious

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07/25/2013 05:40 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
bump
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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07/25/2013 05:49 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
weirdo
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34497986


When this is reaching 0 it's all over:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

Just look how close we are at the moment! (Please ZOOM!)

5a
 Quoting: Cudilicious


bump
 Quoting: Cudilicious


Lets say..2 weeks..then what? ARE U READY? what does a collapse mean to everyone..?
Scubadiverbambi1
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07/25/2013 05:57 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
When this is reaching 0 it's all over:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

Just look how close we are at the moment! (Please ZOOM!)

5a
 Quoting: Cudilicious


This type of decline does not happen by accident; look at the grahp - that is a systematic reduction in their holdings. On purpose implies they believe the price will go down; or to cover bad bets by selling to raise needed capital?? Who the hell knows. I think its neither; I think it is simply being moved and made to look like a lose...just a hunch.

No one in their right mind is going to liquidate a pm position given the level of debt the US has bitten off- its a foregone conclusion that it is unsustainable... so why would they let their position get so low unless they already knew what they end is??

Thoughts...yoda
Life's a Beach, then you Dive!
Useless Cookie Eater

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07/25/2013 06:19 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Defining Backwardation

First, letS introduce a key concept. Most traders define "backwardation" for a commodity as when the price of a futures contract is lower than the price of the same good in the spot market.

In every market, there are always two prices for a good: the bid and the ask. To sell a good, one must take the bid. And likewise, to buy the good, one must pay the ask. In backwardation, one can sell a physical good for cash and simultaneously buy a futures contract, and make a profit on the arbitrage. Note that in doing this trade, one's position does not change in the end. One begins with a certain amount of the good and ends (upon maturity of the contract) with that same amount of the good.

Backwardation is when the bid in the spot market is greater than the ask in the futures market.

[link to www.caseyresearch.com]
 Quoting: Gonviral


Backwardation is a retarded name for NON-EQUALIBRIUM crazy
...and it doesn't matter WHAT is being traded....everything reaches equilibrium via arbitrage trading.

There can never be permanent non-equalibrium.
There are trading desks that do nothing except arbitrage trading. The authors conclusion is a pile of crap.
thwak

For those not versed in trading.....
Think of arbitrage trading as two bodies of water....one is higher than the other....one lower.
When the two are connected, they balance out.
This is the essence of what arbitrageurs do....and why the author has his head up his ass about gold.
There NEVER can be permanent NON-EQUALIBRIUM (backwardation)
The markets will suck it up as fast as it comes into existence.

gekko

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 07/25/2013 08:09 PM
Scubadiverbambi1
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07/25/2013 06:44 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Defining Backwardation

First, letS introduce a key concept. Most traders define "backwardation" for a commodity as when the price of a futures contract is lower than the price of the same good in the spot market.

In every market, there are always two prices for a good: the bid and the ask. To sell a good, one must take the bid. And likewise, to buy the good, one must pay the ask. In backwardation, one can sell a physical good for cash and simultaneously buy a futures contract, and make a profit on the arbitrage. Note that in doing this trade, one's position does not change in the end. One begins with a certain amount of the good and ends (upon maturity of the contract) with that same amount of the good.

Backwardation is when the bid in the spot market is greater than the ask in the futures market.

[link to www.caseyresearch.com]
 Quoting: Gonviral


Backwardation is a retarded name for NON-EQUALIBRIUM crazy
...and it doesn't matter WHAT is being traded....everything reaches equilibrium via arbitrage trading.

The can never be permanent non-equalibrium.
There are trading desks that do nothing except arbitrage trading. The authors conclusion is a pile of crap.
thwak

For those not versed in trading.....
Think of arbitrage trading as two bodies of water....one is higher than the other....one lower.
When the two are connected, they balance out.
This is the essence of what arbitrageurs do....and why the author has his head up his ass about gold.
There NEVER can be permanent NON-EQUALIBRIUM (backwardation)
The markets will suck it up as fast as it comes into existence.

gekko
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Apparently you have never heard of Louisiana.
dcomp
Life's a Beach, then you Dive!
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 06:48 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Gold SHOULD never be in backwardation due to the high stock-to-flow ratio: The owners would theoretically arbitrage to get more free gold.

Why the owners refuse to arbitrage is the key: faith in the paper market. That is the only reason.

BTW, if the paper market collapses, we could see $10,000 / oz easily.
Useless Cookie Eater

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07/25/2013 06:55 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Defining Backwardation

First, letS introduce a key concept. Most traders define "backwardation" for a commodity as when the price of a futures contract is lower than the price of the same good in the spot market.

In every market, there are always two prices for a good: the bid and the ask. To sell a good, one must take the bid. And likewise, to buy the good, one must pay the ask. In backwardation, one can sell a physical good for cash and simultaneously buy a futures contract, and make a profit on the arbitrage. Note that in doing this trade, one's position does not change in the end. One begins with a certain amount of the good and ends (upon maturity of the contract) with that same amount of the good.

Backwardation is when the bid in the spot market is greater than the ask in the futures market.

[link to www.caseyresearch.com]
 Quoting: Gonviral


Backwardation is a retarded name for NON-EQUALIBRIUM crazy
...and it doesn't matter WHAT is being traded....everything reaches equilibrium via arbitrage trading.

There can never be permanent non-equalibrium.
There are trading desks that do nothing except arbitrage trading. The authors conclusion is a pile of crap.
thwak

For those not versed in trading.....
Think of arbitrage trading as two bodies of water....one is higher than the other....one lower.
When the two are connected, they balance out.
This is the essence of what arbitrageurs do....and why the author has his head up his ass about gold.
There NEVER can be permanent NON-EQUALIBRIUM (backwardation)
The markets will suck it up as fast as it comes into existence.

gekko
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Apparently you have never heard of Louisiana.
dcomp
 Quoting: Scubadiverbambi1


Go on? 1dunno1
...because right now I see no relevance to arbitrage. thwak

.

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 07/25/2013 08:09 PM
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 07:01 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark.
Useless Cookie Eater

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07/25/2013 07:06 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


Buy the overall market until Bernanke stops printing or begins to taper.
As soon as he does...the markets will go in a tailspin.

As for gold....they are manipulating it just like the market.
For now....stick with what you have. HOLD.
When the markets go to hell....gold will rise again despite the government manipulation.

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 07/25/2013 07:06 PM
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 07:22 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!

Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark



secrets checkthis out....





[link to usawatchdog.com]





[link to usawatchdog.com] - Bix Weir of ...
Useless Cookie Eater

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United States
07/25/2013 07:24 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!

Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark

secrets checkthis out....

[link to usawatchdog.com]



[link to usawatchdog.com] - Bix Weir of ...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


The only way there can be a wipeout of all debts is if the world economy totally collapses....and the Dollar as well.


Bix Weir ---------------> kookbird

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 07/25/2013 07:25 PM
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 07:26 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808







[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 10762423
Portugal
07/25/2013 07:28 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!

Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark

secrets checkthis out....

[link to usawatchdog.com]



[link to usawatchdog.com] - Bix Weir of ...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


The only way there can be a wipeout of all debts is if the world economy totally collapses....and the Dollar as well.
Ü

Bix Weir ---------------> :kookbird:
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10762423


whatever
Useless Cookie Eater

User ID: 29696048
United States
07/25/2013 07:32 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!

Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark

secrets checkthis out....

[link to usawatchdog.com]



[link to usawatchdog.com] - Bix Weir of ...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


The only way there can be a wipeout of all debts is if the world economy totally collapses....and the Dollar as well.
Ü

Bix Weir ---------------> kookbird
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10762423


whatever
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


OK...then DOOOO tell... oh great wise one how a TOTAL DEBT WIPEOUT could occur without a monetary collapse.

Love to hear it.

popcorn smiley

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 07/25/2013 07:32 PM
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 07:33 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!

Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark

secrets checkthis out....

[link to usawatchdog.com]



[link to usawatchdog.com] - Bix Weir of ...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


The only way there can be a wipeout of all debts is if the world economy totally collapses....and the Dollar as well.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10762423


so we take our money out of the bank BEFORE the end of summer and do what with it?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 31263808
United States
07/25/2013 07:52 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


Buy the overall market until Bernanke stops printing or begins to taper.
As soon as he does...the markets will go in a tailspin.

As for gold....they are manipulating it just like the market.
For now....stick with what you have. HOLD.
When the markets go to hell....gold will rise again despite the government manipulation.
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Thank you. And what about cash in the banks? Get it out?
Useless Cookie Eater

User ID: 29696048
United States
07/25/2013 07:59 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


Buy the overall market until Bernanke stops printing or begins to taper.
As soon as he does...the markets will go in a tailspin.

As for gold....they are manipulating it just like the market.
For now....stick with what you have. HOLD.
When the markets go to hell....gold will rise again despite the government manipulation.
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Thank you. And what about cash in the banks? Get it out?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


You won't lose it in the bank anytime soon....but you aren't making any money on it either.
Keep enough for your checkbook and bill paying....that's it.
The rest you should put into something where you get decent return.
The bank gives you like a 1/2 percent a year...at best...in a standard account.

When / if the USA dollar ever is about to collapse....you will have plenty of time to do something before the sheep who don't pay attention catch on.

As for what I would do with any extra cash?
Put it into the market...but be cautious and trade it.
Don't just dump it and leave it.
The buy and hold days are LONG dead.
Might as well ride the Bernanke wave until it hits the beach.

bmoney

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 07/25/2013 08:01 PM
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 08:08 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
When this is reaching 0 it's all over:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

Just look how close we are at the moment! (Please ZOOM!)

5a
 Quoting: Cudilicious


SON of a bitch!
Useless Cookie Eater

User ID: 29696048
United States
07/25/2013 08:19 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
When this is reaching 0 it's all over:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

Just look how close we are at the moment! (Please ZOOM!)

5a
 Quoting: Cudilicious


SON of a bitch!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43925500


All that shows is that gold is being reclaimed from JP Morgan vaults.


That happened in April by the way.

JPMorgan's Eligible Gold Plummets 65% In 24 Hours To All Time Low
[link to www.zerohedge.com]
Sikhed
Cat herder

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07/25/2013 08:28 PM

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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
I won't touch paper gold/silver.
What do they say it's leveraged at right now? And what is it really?

I don't know, but either answer isn't going to be good.
doom360
Anonymous Coward
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07/25/2013 08:33 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


Buy the overall market until Bernanke stops printing or begins to taper.
As soon as he does...the markets will go in a tailspin.

As for gold....they are manipulating it just like the market.
For now....stick with what you have. HOLD.
When the markets go to hell....gold will rise again despite the government manipulation.
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


Thank you. And what about cash in the banks? Get it out?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


You won't lose it in the bank anytime soon....but you aren't making any money on it either.
Keep enough for your checkbook and bill paying....that's it.
The rest you should put into something where you get decent return.
The bank gives you like a 1/2 percent a year...at best...in a standard account.

When / if the USA dollar ever is about to collapse....you will have plenty of time to do something before the sheep who don't pay attention catch on.

As for what I would do with any extra cash?
Put it into the market...but be cautious and trade it.
Don't just dump it and leave it.
The buy and hold days are LONG dead.
Might as well ride the Bernanke wave until it hits the beach.

:bmoney:
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


thanks for your thoughts.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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07/25/2013 11:48 PM
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Re: ART CASHIN: Traders Are Talking About A Gold Conspiracy Theory And There's Evidence To Back It Up!
Gold SHOULD never be in backwardation due to the high stock-to-flow ratio: The owners would theoretically arbitrage to get more free gold.

Why the owners refuse to arbitrage is the key: faith in the paper market. That is the only reason.

BTW, if the paper market collapses, we could see $10,000 / oz easily.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44027006


Could someone please say what EXACTLY the average person might be able to do?

Buy gold?
Don't buy gold?
Sell gold?

What?

Here's the problem: The actions in the market are counter-intuitive to what everyone believes ought to be happening.

Ergo, there is manipulation. A few know something that the many do not.

Unless and until we find out what that something is, we are just suckers, bumping around in the dark.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31263808


When this is reaching 0 it's all over:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

Just look how close we are at the moment! (Please ZOOM!)

5a
 Quoting: Cudilicious


SON of a bitch!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43925500





UUUUUUHHH!!!! RUN DO NOT WALK!!

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