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If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:34 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
The Fed can't buy all of the U.S. Debt, that would still be the end of the Dollar and immediate hyperinflation as countries around the world began dumping the dollar as their reserve currency...

We're damned if we do, damned if we don't...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Wait a second. What percentage of U.S. Debt do you think the Fed has been buying the last year or two (new issuance)? Wasn't it close to 100%/... like over 90%.

Not to mention - you don't think it's a coincidence that all this Detroit bankruptcy has been in the news so much, do you? I can see the plan, once the Fed well runs dry, to just raid the pensions, and retirement accounts to support the Treasury market. It will be sold as the Fed'l Govt HELPING bail out the pensions & retirement accounts, but it will be the reverse in reality.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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08/04/2013 07:36 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
what effect will this have on gold, silver?
 Quoting: Founders Fan


Interest Rate rises typically have had a positive effect on Gold and Silver, and with a weakening dollar...

I think Gold and Silver will go parabolic with interest rates, might not happen till all of the big bank shorts are covered though, which would mean Sept forward...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Saddletramp  (OP)

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08/04/2013 07:37 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
The Fed can't buy all of the U.S. Debt, that would still be the end of the Dollar and immediate hyperinflation as countries around the world began dumping the dollar as their reserve currency...

We're damned if we do, damned if we don't...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Wait a second. What percentage of U.S. Debt do you think the Fed has been buying the last year or two (new issuance)? Wasn't it close to 100%/... like over 90%.

Not to mention - you don't think it's a coincidence that all this Detroit bankruptcy has been in the news so much, do you? I can see the plan, once the Fed well runs dry, to just raid the pensions, and retirement accounts to support the Treasury market. It will be sold as the Fed'l Govt HELPING bail out the pensions & retirement accounts, but it will be the reverse in reality.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29674601


No, they were buying 90 to 100% of the long term debt, but over 75% of our debt issuance was three years or less...

They're already raiding Govt Pensions, RIGHT NOW, that's how they are avoiding the debt ceiling, they're stealing the Equity from those pensions and replacing it with long term treasuries...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 08/04/2013 07:38 PM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:37 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
what effect will this have on gold, silver?
 Quoting: Founders Fan


Prices of both will eventually explode upwards, but they will hold them down as long as possible, to maintain confidence in the currencies as long as possible.

Of course, the key banks that have been manipulating the gold & silver prices down (with shorts) are now positioning themselves on the long side. They will profit from the eventual rocket move up... once they can no longer hold prices down.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:39 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
No, they were buying 90 to 100% of the long term debt, but over 75% of our debt issuance was three years or less...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Ahhh, got it. thanks. So what percent of the new issuance of short-term debt has the Fed been purchasing in the last year or two?
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:39 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
This means the Fed could be one bad day on the bond market away from going flat broke...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


I have heard that the Federal Reserve has the ability to create money out of thin air...
 Quoting: Quasar


Indeed they do, but not without incurring the debt necessary to do so...

And when you are incurring debt to buy into a deflating market, well it's only a matter of time then...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


What if they forget to mark the debt part of the transaction on the ledger sheet? What if they just create cyber zeroes and don't sweat any of that nasty "debt?"
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:41 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
They're already raiding Govt Pensions, RIGHT NOW, that's how they are avoiding the debt ceiling, they're stealing the Equity from those pensions and replacing it with long term treasuries...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


I don't have confidence in them stopping with just Govt pensions, do you? Why wouldn't they move to private pensions, and then IRAs/401ks/403bs when necessary?
shadasonic

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08/04/2013 07:42 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
If yields on 10 Year Treasuries top 3.25% and The Fed is forced to quit buying U.S. Debt because of lack of capital, Interest rates could quickly go parabolic...

WATCH JAPAN, WATCH 10 YR TREASURIES!!! Because if 10 Year Treasuries go over the magic number, Japanese Bond yields will explode, and because of the weakness in their markets, their economy will fall very very quickly...when you see Japan fold up like a tent in a matter of days, know that the Europeans and the U.S. will soon follow...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Right e o

going to be one interesting week, nice thread

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 08/04/2013 07:42 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:42 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
This means the Fed could be one bad day on the bond market away from going flat broke...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


I have heard that the Federal Reserve has the ability to create money out of thin air...
 Quoting: Quasar


The formal way they put the money in the system is as follows.

1. Find a chimp like Timothy Geithner.
2. tell him he can spread new, shiny, money around the village as long as he comes up with a pseudo-scientific way of amortizing work product. ( a tbill that can be sold to non 'mericans)
3. When he fails, even on a personal level, you should at least get a war or something out of it.

Rinse, repeat, until they stop teaching Keynesian Economics in universities.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:42 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
hell, $198 billion is chump change, these days.

.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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08/04/2013 07:48 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
hell, $198 billion is chump change, these days.

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44429986


Well considering The Fed only had about $250 Billion in Capital Reserves...

Not so much...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:52 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
If yields on 10 Year Treasuries top 3.25% and The Fed is forced to quit buying U.S. Debt because of lack of capital, Interest rates could quickly go parabolic...

WATCH JAPAN, WATCH 10 YR TREASURIES!!! Because if 10 Year Treasuries go over the magic number, Japanese Bond yields will explode, and because of the weakness in their markets, their economy will fall very very quickly...when you see Japan fold up like a tent in a matter of days, know that the Europeans and the U.S. will soon follow...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Lack of capital at the fed? I don't see how this is possible since they create capital out of thin air.

I see them requiring more printing and further the severity of inflation.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:55 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
If you want real doom don't watch TV, watch 10 Year Treasury Bonds...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


it went from 2.76 to 2.62% in minutes on Friday...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39464638


Of course it did. 2.75% is a psychological resistance point. A close at that level or above could cause a panic.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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08/04/2013 07:57 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
If yields on 10 Year Treasuries top 3.25% and The Fed is forced to quit buying U.S. Debt because of lack of capital, Interest rates could quickly go parabolic...

WATCH JAPAN, WATCH 10 YR TREASURIES!!! Because if 10 Year Treasuries go over the magic number, Japanese Bond yields will explode, and because of the weakness in their markets, their economy will fall very very quickly...when you see Japan fold up like a tent in a matter of days, know that the Europeans and the U.S. will soon follow...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Lack of capital at the fed? I don't see how this is possible since they create capital out of thin air.

I see them requiring more printing and further the severity of inflation.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44577770


They don't create Capital out of thin air, they create Debt out of thin air, then they use that debt to buy assets (Bonds), the Capital was the profits they had made from the purchase then subsequent sale (or increase in value) of those assets...

But when those assets they purchase with debt lose value...they lose Capital...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 07:57 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
hey OP, what causes the 10yr bond rate to go up?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43333846


Doubt in the U.S.'s ability to pay it's debts, which is already pervasive, but more than anything is the lack of The Fed to find a market for these bonds and to have to eat them on their books...

True Market Price Discovery of U.S. Debt will be a total killer...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


THIS^ 10000% correct answer.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:00 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
If yields on 10 Year Treasuries top 3.25% and The Fed is forced to quit buying U.S. Debt because of lack of capital, Interest rates could quickly go parabolic...

WATCH JAPAN, WATCH 10 YR TREASURIES!!! Because if 10 Year Treasuries go over the magic number, Japanese Bond yields will explode, and because of the weakness in their markets, their economy will fall very very quickly...when you see Japan fold up like a tent in a matter of days, know that the Europeans and the U.S. will soon follow...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Lack of capital at the fed? I don't see how this is possible since they create capital out of thin air.

I see them requiring more printing and further the severity of inflation.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44577770


They don't create Capital out of thin air, they create Debt out of thin air, then they use that debt to buy assets (Bonds), the Capital was the profits they had made from the purchase then subsequent sale (or increase in value) of those assets...

But when those assets they purchase with debt lose value...they lose Capital...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Ok, yeah you're right. Are you saying that if the Fed runs out of capital it will be unable to issue debt (sell bonds) because of trust?
Saddletramp  (OP)

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08/04/2013 08:03 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
If yields on 10 Year Treasuries top 3.25% and The Fed is forced to quit buying U.S. Debt because of lack of capital, Interest rates could quickly go parabolic...

WATCH JAPAN, WATCH 10 YR TREASURIES!!! Because if 10 Year Treasuries go over the magic number, Japanese Bond yields will explode, and because of the weakness in their markets, their economy will fall very very quickly...when you see Japan fold up like a tent in a matter of days, know that the Europeans and the U.S. will soon follow...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Lack of capital at the fed? I don't see how this is possible since they create capital out of thin air.

I see them requiring more printing and further the severity of inflation.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44577770


They don't create Capital out of thin air, they create Debt out of thin air, then they use that debt to buy assets (Bonds), the Capital was the profits they had made from the purchase then subsequent sale (or increase in value) of those assets...

But when those assets they purchase with debt lose value...they lose Capital...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Ok, yeah you're right. Are you saying that if the Fed runs out of capital it will be unable to issue debt (sell bonds) because of trust?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44577770


Bingo!
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:06 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
so like always.

we have such valuable information, what is it's worth?

we don't believe each other, or the content.

so it's obviously a lose lose.




or, reality is we are all living a lie and refuse to take a rational step towards our future.

that would be asking too much. let's just sit here behind our internet hub and preted like what we learn makes a difference.

anyone seen any good movies lately? that's a better conversation then what we currently have.




even if the controlled economy (which it is) is about to die, (again, which it is) - then what good is this knowledge to us, the common man's observer?

we're nothing more than a checker piece on a chess board.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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08/04/2013 08:09 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
so like always.

we have such valuable information, what is it's worth?

we don't believe each other, or the content.

so it's obviously a lose lose.




or, reality is we are all living a lie and refuse to take a rational step towards our future.

that would be asking too much. let's just sit here behind our internet hub and preted like what we learn makes a difference.

anyone seen any good movies lately? that's a better conversation then what we currently have.




even if the controlled economy (which it is) is about to die, (again, which it is) - then what good is this knowledge to us, the common man's observer?

we're nothing more than a checker piece on a chess board.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43286973


Knowledge is power...

If you know, and if you believe, you can take the steps necessary to protect yourself from the worst of it...

It's not that hard to manage your own wealth, despite what they tell you on TV...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 08/04/2013 08:10 PM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Irreversible-day

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08/04/2013 08:10 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
bonds and debt killed the Roman empire.

Its the greed of the leaders that cause it.

nothing more and nothing less.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:15 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
k
If yields on 10 Year Treasuries top 3.25% and The Fed is forced to quit buying U.S. Debt because of lack of capital, Interest rates could quickly go parabolic...

WATCH JAPAN, WATCH 10 YR TREASURIES!!! Because if 10 Year Treasuries go over the magic number, Japanese Bond yields will explode, and because of the weakness in their markets, their economy will fall very very quickly...when you see Japan fold up like a tent in a matter of days, know that the Europeans and the U.S. will soon follow...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Lack of capital at the fed? I don't see how this is possible since they create capital out of thin air.

I see them requiring more printing and further the severity of inflation.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44577770


Kyle Bass said this over a year ago, he gave Japan two at that time, so it is getting close.
Devoted Follower
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08/04/2013 08:17 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
So basically debt saturation achieved?

End game/ponzi scheme...

Everyone go back to start.

hiding

burnit
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:18 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
so like always.

we have such valuable information, what is it's worth?

we don't believe each other, or the content.

so it's obviously a lose lose.




or, reality is we are all living a lie and refuse to take a rational step towards our future.

that would be asking too much. let's just sit here behind our internet hub and preted like what we learn makes a difference.

anyone seen any good movies lately? that's a better conversation then what we currently have.




even if the controlled economy (which it is) is about to die, (again, which it is) - then what good is this knowledge to us, the common man's observer?

we're nothing more than a checker piece on a chess board.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43286973


Knowledge is power...

If you know, and if you believe, you can take the steps necessary to protect yourself from the worst of it...

It's not that hard to manage your own wealth, despite what they tell you on TV...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


You can do all the right managing knowing how the end game is going to play out, then your drug induced neighbor (who can't get any more prescription drugs) comes over and ruins it...
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:20 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
It's not that hard to manage your own wealth, despite what they tell you on TV...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


there is no individual wealth.

this is all our mistake.




there is no wealth. we are incabible of earning wealth. the system is not meant for that.

sure, we are thought to think we have a considerable ability to be wealthy - there is no attainable level of wealth.

so we sit here, on a sunday night / monday morning and pretend like what we know means anything. whether you have 5 zeros or 6 zeros or 7 zeros at the end of your bank statement..

we're all a single pawn in a rigged game of chess.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:23 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
hell, $198 billion is chump change, these days.

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44429986


Chump change? What are you an idiot?
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:23 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
It's not that hard to manage your own wealth, despite what they tell you on TV...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


there is no individual wealth.

this is all our mistake.




there is no wealth. we are incabible of earning wealth. the system is not meant for that.

sure, we are thought to think we have a considerable ability to be wealthy - there is no attainable level of wealth.

so we sit here, on a sunday night / monday morning and pretend like what we know means anything. whether you have 5 zeros or 6 zeros or 7 zeros at the end of your bank statement..

we're all a single pawn in a rigged game of chess.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 43286973


we're all here just a short time... When the end comes, we take nothing with us... Pray, eat, love...
Fingulas

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08/04/2013 08:24 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
Now, call me silly, but what's keeping the Fed from simply making up counter-parties to the debt issuance?

Who's going to audit them as long as they cash-flow the deficit and Obama can keep going on multimillion dollar vacations?

They can conjure up debt customers via 3rd party banks, using the primary dealers as the go-between.

I'm betting this has already been going on for a while now.

Until this shows up as raging inflation, no one will think to stop it.

My question is WHY the bond rate has been allowed to raise? It seems too early for the Fed to lose control, since gas isn't 10/gal yet.
Anonymous Coward
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08/04/2013 08:28 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
bump to follow tomorrow
Saddletramp  (OP)

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08/04/2013 08:29 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
Now, call me silly, but what's keeping the Fed from simply making up counter-parties to the debt issuance?

Who's going to audit them as long as they cash-flow the deficit and Obama can keep going on multimillion dollar vacations?

They can conjure up debt customers via 3rd party banks, using the primary dealers as the go-between.

I'm betting this has already been going on for a while now.

Until this shows up as raging inflation, no one will think to stop it.

My question is WHY the bond rate has been allowed to raise? It seems too early for the Fed to lose control, since gas isn't 10/gal yet.
 Quoting: Fingulas


That's what they've been doing with QE3.5, trading Long Term Treasuries for worthless Mortgage Back Securities with toxic assets lumped in from Mega Banks in a vain attempt to extend the looting and re-inflate the housing bubble.
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
SteamrolledGobias

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08/04/2013 08:30 PM
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Re: If You're Wondering What They're Distracting You From: Bond Losses At The Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion
just a quick question on the issuance of treasury bills

do these come from the Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury Dept? or both?





GLP