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Page 12, 3, 4

JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!

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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118
5/5/2006 7:46 AM
Report abusive post
JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!
Quote

SW-3 73P-BD:

Size: unknown (hasn't been measured), my guess would be some dozens of meters in
size.

Minimum miss distance is the closest distance the 3-sigma statistical
uncertainty ellipsoid
surrounding the nominal comes to the CENTER of the other body [Earth] (not
surface). That is,
there is a 99.7% chance the true miss distance (center-of-mass to
center-of-mass) will be
greater than the minimum miss distance.

Regards,
----------------------------------------------------------​---------------------
Navigation & Mission Design Section
Senior Analyst Solar System Dynamics Group
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 7:47 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

I have his name, but I didn't want him to be swamped with email.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 7:49 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

What this means is that, indeed, the distances are measured CENTER to CENTER and that BD can be as large as 100 meters, at least!

Actual min miss distance to SURFACE is 1500 miles only!!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89434
5/5/2006 7:49 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Thanks for that. At last maybe the reactionaries here will understand what the "minimal miss distance" is that they have been using as the certainty for an impact from the comet.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 7:50 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Right! .03% chance only for min miss.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 81507
5/5/2006 7:51 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 7:52 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

keep in minds though that

.03% chance = 1500 miles
.04% chance = 1550 miles (guess)
.05% chance = 1600 miles (guess)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89434
5/5/2006 7:52 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

If the mods are going to pin yet another comet thread, they should certainly pin this one to help bring some reality to things.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 7:56 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

"So you're telling me there's a chance!"

Lloyd ("Dumb and Dumber")
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 7:57 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

keep in minds though that

.3% chance = 1500 miles
.4% chance = 1550 miles (guess)
.5% chance = 1600 miles (guess)

Correction -- should be this
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 7:59 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

That means there is at least still a very good chance of this BD getting very close when you consider slightly further distances.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 8:01 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Assmue 1/10 of a kilometer. That is still a good chunk.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 8:01 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Assume, i mean
eagle
User ID: 8414
5/5/2006 8:03 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

First, you have to trust the AC that posted this information. Right?
"No one is as deaf as the person who will not hear."
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 8:03 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

.3% chance for Minimum Miss of approx. 1500 miles above earth surface to clarify.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 8:05 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Trust me, it is authentic. I can provide the full proof, but it shouldn't be necessary.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89434
5/5/2006 8:05 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

"First, you have to trust the AC that posted this information. Right?"

It doesn't matter. The important part is to understand the statistical meaning of "minimum miss distance", That is factual.

Of course if you really insist on being a doomsdayer, you can always insist that all the NASA tracking numbers are bullshit.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 8:06 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Right, the only thing is dispute would be the size ESTIMATE that he gave me.
The realist
User ID: 73790
5/5/2006 8:18 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

So really he isnt really saying anything.

Excellent!
eagle
User ID: 8414
5/5/2006 8:25 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

I just posted a reply. It showed up here for maybe 10 seconds. I refreshed the page to see if there was a response yet. It is gone now. Does this happen often?
"No one is as deaf as the person who will not hear."
Emperor Kenton
User ID: 87536
5/5/2006 8:25 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

What about the tail? Does 3-BD cross the orbital plane then earth plows through region a few days later?
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]
Capture animation:
[link to cyberspaceorbit.com]

NOTE: this is a question, am I missing something? Damned if I know.
[link to www.cyberspaceorbit.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 88152
5/5/2006 8:47 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 88152
5/5/2006 9:27 AM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Well, this one doesn't get many replies, since I guess that explanation of the statistics around the minimal miss distance doesn't add much feed for the chicken littles here...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12118 (OP)
5/5/2006 6:31 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

b
ac
User ID: 89708
5/5/2006 6:55 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

bump
bill shitter
User ID: 62398
5/5/2006 7:19 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

to all if thge earth is about 10,000 miles round then / by pi and you get 3184/2= radius 1592 miles and all calcs are taken as ceter of mass then in my guesstimate it is going to be close
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15832
5/5/2006 7:28 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Post the email without the name.
Witness
User ID: 2694
5/5/2006 7:40 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

For those who don't know maths or stats, here is the simple version:

We are NOT going to be hit.
Chance of being hit: 0.000%

NADA.
Nothing.
Zilch.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73939
5/5/2006 7:43 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

yes good idea, that way it will look somewhat believable that you got this email.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 15832
5/5/2006 7:44 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

lol
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89877
5/5/2006 7:45 PM
Re: JPL has responded to my e-mail!!! Here is some more information on SW-3 BD!!!Quote

Hi!, Stan
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