They will start in FEMA region 3, and this is going to be the October Surprise everyone is waiting on. REGION 3 is statistically passive and anti gun, so they expect the rest of the country to give up after region 3 is pacified. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 41089357
BULLSHIT. Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia are definitely *not* anti-gun. Over a million hunting permits issued in 2011 in those three states, alone. I don't have stats readily available on how many deer and other game were taken, but anecdotal evidence would suggest that somewhere between 30 and 50% of hunters are successful in taking at least one quarry in a given season - one hell of a "rebel force" to be reckoned with, just within 100 miles of the District of Criminals.
The phrase, "Good luck with that", immediately comes to mind.
Logistics alone will break any large force attempting to stay highly mobile in such an environment; and guerrilla tactics will destroy by attrition any force which tries to dig in and "hold ground". That's the rock and hard-place of asymmetrical warfare, particularly when there are no "rear areas" where supplies are safe, and where troops can get R&R.
Draw a circle with a radius of 50 miles centered on DC - a large enough force (figure 12,000-15,000 troops) can take that in about 10 days. It will likely cost: 400~600 casualties among the invading force, 40~50 vehicles destroyed, and ~40,000-60,000 gallons of fuel burned (in 10 days). The operation will require some 480,000 pounds of food, medicine, and other consumables to be delivered to the field; that's 48,000 pounds of deliveries every day, on time, to all forces, or the net of control will begin to fail after as little as 24 hours without replenishment.
Now, double that radius to 100 miles...securing and obtaining provisional control will take at least 10 weeks and 50,000 troops, and it will cost 1300~1800 casualties, about 200 vehicles destroyed, and 500,000 gallons of fuel burned (in 10 weeks). The operation will require some 14,000,000 pounds of food, medicine, and other consumables to be delivered to the field - about 1,400,000 pounds per week.
Double that radius to 200 miles, and it will take between 10 and 16 months to "pacify" that much area with roughly 150,000 troops. Casualties will be in the range of 12,000~20,000 per year, vehicle losses will be well over 2500 per year, this force will require over 14 million gallons of fuel per year to remain operational, and will also require ~260 Million pounds of food, medicine, and other consumables per year. That is 270,000 gallons of fuel, and 5,000,000 pounds of supplies per week!!! This is similar to what Exxon/Mobile and Wallmart deliver each week in the entire US market east of the Mississippi river!
These figures for fuel and consumables do *not* account for losses due to sabotage or "piracy" by rebels, and therefore may have to be increased as much as 15~25% or more durring an extended campaign, where networks of rebel forces coordinate against resupply operations.
All personnel, materials, and supplies will require continual replenishment to every field location. On time. Under combat conditions
. If Exxon and Walmart couldn't do it, who do you think can?!?
And this is still not even 20% of the contiguous US territory under "control".
In short, without aiding factors it would be functionally impossible to control and disarm even 50% of the territory known as CONUS. That is why they are so desperately seeking aiding factors, like a natural disaster and/or a grid down type of game changer scenario.
Amateurs think tactics...professionals think logistics.