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Comet 73P
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 91168
5/9/2006 2:18 AM
Report abusive post | Comet 73P
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The NEO/JPL/NASA website currently lists 64 fragments of comet 73P in its NEO close-approach database. There is enough information involving time of closest approach, distance from Earth at closest approach, and velocity relative to the Earth, to perform some simple analysis, including...
(1) the suggested length of the comet along its axis of movement:
There is 6.5 days duration between the times of closest approach of the first and last fragments. The velocity of the group relative to Earth is roughly 14.6 km/second (although the fragments in front of the pack are moving faster than those behind, according to the data). So 14.6 km/sec x 86400 sec/day * 6.5 days equals 8.2 million kilometers, or 5.1 million miles. This distance is at the lower range of reports I have seen concerning the overall extent of the comet-fragments. The estimates that I have seen state it is six million to ten million miles in extent, or longer. So how long is it really? If the comet fragments extend at least 10 million miles, then according to the NEO/JPL/NASA's own data, their table needs to be extended a minimum of 6.5 days beyond the final date of May 17th == until at least May 24th.
(2)Analysis of the nominal miss distances of each fragment, as a function of the time of closest approach, results in a tight linear relationship that can be projected forward in time.
[link to puritan.100megsfree3.com]
I think May 26th is the date to watch.
[link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33732
5/9/2006 2:29 AM | |
stowaway
User ID: 91168 (OP)
5/9/2006 2:38 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Yes, and the chart is from the NEO/JPL/NASA data.
Thank you for fixing the link so that others can see! |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 2:40 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
If the time of passing, the length of the trail, is already 6.5 days, I don't see why that time has to be extended.  |
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stowaway
User ID: 91168 (OP)
5/9/2006 2:48 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
When you examine the data table, you can see that the nearest fragment (the one in front of the pack) dosn't make its closest approach to earth until May 11th. [link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov] |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 3:03 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
So the last one would go by on the 17th or 18th or 19th if the length of the comet stream is extended, or extending. So no real hit possibility on the 25th.. ? |
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stowaway
User ID: 91168 (OP)
5/9/2006 3:19 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
My opinion is that if the extent of the fragments is long enough, that is, ten million miles or greater, then the probable *minimum miss distance* extrapolates to *zero* on May 26th. Therefore the greatest probability of a hit would occur on that date. The possibility of a hit would not be ruled out on May 25th, or on other nearbly dates. But the chance would be less probable. |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 3:34 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
stowaway,
You're extending out to 14 days a length of the comet stream which has been calculated to take only 6.5 days to pass..
Isn't that a bit illogical? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 91180
5/9/2006 3:41 AM | |
stowaway
User ID: 91168 (OP)
5/9/2006 3:42 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
"You're extending out to 14 days a length of the comet stream which has been calculated to take only 6.5 days to pass..
Isn't that a bit illogical?"
Let me repeat my question to try to answer yours -- I ask, how long is it really? NEO/JPL/NASA imply it is 5.1 million miles front to back, exactly. Is it?
I'm very serious in asking. |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 3:55 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
May I ask why, ^TrInItY^. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33732
5/9/2006 4:04 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
The pieces they are tracking are the main chunks and the bigger fragments that they have been able to see. There is a lot of debris and clutter that is obscuring some of the fragments. That is why the big variance on the BD fragment in my opinion. How big are the debris clouds around these fragments? And how far behind these fragments is the debris trailing/tailing?
I've seen some earlier cbet notices that have referred to debris clouds that were ~12' x 15' in sky images but I don't know what that translates into in miles.
Here's a snip of what I'm talking about:
<He noted no secondary nuclei around component 'B'.
Christensen adds that Mt. Lemmon images on Apr. 7 showed component 'B'
to have a coma diameter approximately 12' x 15', elongated toward p.a.
230 deg, with a faint narrow tail extending at least 30' toward p.a.
230 deg.> [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov] |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 4:19 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
AC 33732,
What does "12' x 15'" refer to in relation to a diameter?
And what is "p.a."? It's not readily found on google search.
Can you explain as far as you are able what you have quoted?
thanks, |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33732
5/9/2006 4:21 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Here's the directory I got that from if somebody wants to do a study or analysis on width and length of the coma's and tails. [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 33732
5/9/2006 4:25 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
neti, I don't know how to convert that to actual size in miles.
Where have all the debunkers gone when you need them?  |
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Virtualgirl
User ID: 29026
5/9/2006 4:26 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
I'm comet ignorant too. What's a coma? A sleepy comet? |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 4:34 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Can we get some purchase on what we're talking about, so people without much knowledge can get a picture?
>> "to have a coma diameter approximately 12' x 15', elongated toward p.a.
230 deg," <<
12 x 15 = 180 degrees.
Does that mean degrees of arc, half a circle? |
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The Enchanter
User ID: 85400
5/9/2006 4:37 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Nice Plot... Yeah, if there are unseen frags, it looks like late May would be the impact time. Good Job OP! It looks like someone has taken a few science or stats courses.... |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 4:40 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
"coma diameter" which you talked about Virtualgirl.
"Coma. 1. astron. the nebulous envelop around the nucleus of a comet."
Does that include the tail, or not? |
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stowaway
User ID: 91168 (OP)
5/9/2006 4:46 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
That is helpful information which you posted, AC 33732.
I calculate that on April 7th, the nearest fragment of 73P was about 0.26 Astromonical Units from Earth, or about 24 million miles. From your snip, the Mt. Lemmon images showed a coma diameter approximately 12' x 15'. These angular mesurements translate to absolute dimensions of about 54,000 by 67,000 miles for the visible coma of Component B. I thik this would be looking at it more or less "head on" as it approaches earth. I don't know how many astronomers are here -- I am not -- but If someone could find "in a nutshell" angular distances between separate fragments AND when the measurements were taken, maybe we would be getting somewhere. Info from Hubble observations would be especially useful, because the Hubble sees it more from a "side" angle than from Earth.
I'm signing off for a bit. Later, everyone. |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 4:50 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
The Enchanter,
That plot extends the length of the comet out to 14 or more days. It is only supposed to be 6.5.
 I understand it a bit better.
6.5 days = 5.1 million miles.
14 days would extend it to "at least 10 million miles" or more.
And it's getting longer all the time.
Ah, I see.
So a strike on May 25th is not out of the question. |
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Virtualgirl
User ID: 29026
5/9/2006 5:08 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
So, is the coma like the whole of all the fragments if you were to measure all the way around? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74100
5/9/2006 5:14 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
There are very few if any posts on this site I believe. I don't believe in ghosts nor do I believe in aliens. My mind is however quite open to these or any other paranormal or anomolous activities. I don't believe in either of the above for one simple reason, because I have not seen anything in my personal experiences to sway my beliefs one way or the other. Same goes with religion, just cause there is a book that some woo-woo wrote many hundreds or thousands of years ago doesn't mean I'm gonna believe it. In my opinion concrete evidence is needed, which means if I don't see it I am not a believer. With that said I don't believe anything NASA says or any other professional or amatuer astronomers say. However I do believe there is something that will happen very soon that will interrupt the way of life as we know it. What this is, I am not sure, but happen it will. Whether it be by a nuclear disaster or a natural catastrophic event, or GOD himself laying ruin to all of the world, I don't know. But I will tell you what I do know, there is something in store for us. Not only as one country but as an entire world. And whatever it may be, it will not be minute it will be global. I say this not as a doomsdayer or what have you, but as a regular human being that just has a feeling that there is definately something that is gonna fuck shit up. And it is gonna be soon. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89446
5/9/2006 5:30 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
I say this not as a doomsdayer or what have you, but as a regular human being that just has a feeling that there is definately something that is gonna fuck shit up. And it is gonna be soon.
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A lot of us get that feeling. |
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Dystopian Vagabond
User ID: 91186
5/9/2006 5:39 AM
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 62398
5/9/2006 5:43 AM | |
Viper
User ID: 91171
5/9/2006 6:10 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Yep, same here AC 89446 |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 6:50 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Virtualgirl,
I think they're talking about the coma measurements of one particular fragment, "fragment B"
Now, I think I've made serious mistakes above thru not knowing the terms.
Here is a very good [link to seds.lpl.arizona.edu] for astronomy terms.
" ' " is arc minutes, 1/60th of a degree (there being 360 degrees in a circle)
p.a. is 'positional angle', located in space according to the four quarters of the earth (N = 0°, E = 90°, S = 180, W = 270°).
So as stowaway said (4:46 AM), the coma diameter of fragment B, being 12' x 15' arc seconds, yield a dimension of approximately "54,000 by 67,000 miles"
The tail fanning out by 30' minutes of ark "toward p.a. 230 deg." (see AC 33732's post) means that it is pointing in a south westerly direction. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 73871
5/9/2006 7:55 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 89446
5/9/2006 5:30 AM Re: Comet 73P
I say this not as a doomsdayer or what have you, but as a regular human being that just has a feeling that there is definately something that is gonna fuck shit up. And it is gonna be soon.
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It's called a President. |
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neti
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 8:04 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
Sorry, 12' x 15' should be arc minutes..
Geeze, I'm goofing the terms. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 83837
5/9/2006 8:08 AM | | Re: Comet 73P | Quote |
AC 73871 and AC 89446,
Have you read the dream on this other thread?
A dream I had the other night. Everybody else is sharing so why not.
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
It's very good.. |
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