| | | Page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 | Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!!
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 54534
 United Kingdom
5/22/2006 8:22 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Aussie you mention sleepless nights for those in the market.
Can you tell me howmany people on this forum will have sleepless night regarding this matter and how does this number compare to the number of woo woo and fear mongering posts regarding this matter? |
| SlowBurn
User ID: 96470
 Australia
5/22/2006 8:22 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
sure and how long has it been a fiat based monetary system? |
| SlowBurn
User ID: 96470
Australia
5/22/2006 8:23 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
mate you have to post fast in this thread lol. |
| Omega
User ID: 73860
 United States
5/22/2006 8:24 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Hey OAFP!!!!
You have got to shake your head at this derivatives stuff. Can only laugh sometimes ..<<<<<<
Laugh, yeah sometimes stuff is so scary thats all you can do, is laugh.
One time I accidentially smacked myself in the knee with a 16lb sledgehammer. It hurt so bad I laughed my ass off.
The next day was a different story.....
To research how risky this derivatives stuff really is research the Long Term Capital Management fiasco. That was what, back in 1997, and it came CLOSE to taking down the whole US financial system.
Handguns are a skill; shotguns an art; rifles a science.
_____________________________________
Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on whats for dinner.
Disarmament is the precursor to Genocide.
Better to take action now rather than chances later. Your choice. |
| Witness
User ID: 2407
United Kingdom
5/22/2006 8:29 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
I have to say that the derivatives markets will be under huge pressure now, for sure, with the markets down. |
| AJ
User ID: 74666
United States
5/22/2006 8:30 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
 Should I bet big on blackjack or gold today???? Hmmmmmm...decisions,decisions..... |
| SHR
User ID: 94738
United States
5/22/2006 8:37 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Don't worry, the whole thing is fake anyway. Fake money takes a fake loss and then makes it up with a fake gain. Watch da Pimps in action boooyz, we gone git some fake conf-dence in yo face dis week, word. |
| Omega
User ID: 73860
United States
5/22/2006 8:39 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
SHR is correct. Pimpdaddy.com will save them
www.pimpdaddy.com
Handguns are a skill; shotguns an art; rifles a science.
_____________________________________
Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on whats for dinner.
Disarmament is the precursor to Genocide.
Better to take action now rather than chances later. Your choice. |
| Optimistic Aussie from Perth
User ID: 1488
Australia
5/22/2006 8:39 AM
 | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
"Aussie you mention sleepless nights for those in the market."
A general statement only ... for the those in the financial world.
Hey, i could be wrong. They could all be sleeping like babies.??
[Pause]
Nahhh i doubt that. |
| W. W. Raupp
User ID: 27619
 India
5/22/2006 8:45 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
I hardly say this is a crash. A long overdue correction more like it.
To shape the world is to become immortal |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 96487
 Hong Kong
5/22/2006 8:45 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
'Financial advisors' have started calling me up, dangling investment plans.
They must be after mug money. |
| Allotrope
User ID: 96465
United States
5/22/2006 8:47 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
If you think this is not significant, look at gold prices. Up $10 in the last few hours. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 54534
United Kingdom
5/22/2006 8:48 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
now i get it. When they said a crash on 22nd, to 25th. They didn't mean the comet.
Do you think Eric Jullien will claim this one for himself?lol |
| Ishtahota
User ID: 74834
United States
5/22/2006 8:52 AM
 | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
"India on alert for suicides after stocks slide"
"Indian police are watching out for possible suicides by brokers and investors after a steep market slide wiped out billions of dollars in share values, officials said on Monday.
Policemen were keeping a watch near lakes and canals, possible places where people in distress could head to kill themselves. They said rescue teams were on alert."
[link to abcnews.go.com]
--------------
It is happening everywhere.
Just a Thought,
Ishtahota
Live Long, Laugh Often, Love Much! |
| W. W. Raupp
User ID: 27619
India
5/22/2006 8:52 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Gold has risen for $10? I don't know on which planet you're looking, but kitco says that gold is down 0.82%, which is 5 dollars and 40 cents.
To shape the world is to become immortal |
| ho ho babylon!
User ID: 84479
United States
5/22/2006 8:53 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Quickly! divert yourselves with crafts, go INWARD! Focus on your family. Pray to Santa and his Elves, and His Wife.
hope this helps...
[link to craft.dow.com]
Santa & Elf Plunger Pals
Designed By: Barbara Matthiessen
Typical Project Completion Time: 1 day |
| Allotrope
User ID: 96465
United States
5/22/2006 8:55 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
It was down much more than that a few hours ago and has come up $12 quickly. |
| Omega
User ID: 73860
United States
5/22/2006 8:55 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
This is it for me, off work, woo hoo!!!!
Stagflation Lite, Central Banking Nightmare
Stagflation Lite, Central Banking Nightmare, May Await Bernanke
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be facing a central banker's nightmare this year: what Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics Inc. in New York, terms ''a mild dose of stagflation.''
Surging oil and commodity prices, a falling dollar and mounting doubts about the Fed's willingness to keep price pressures in check are all increasing the risks that inflation will quicken. At the same time, the Fed's two-year credit- tightening campaign is beginning to bite; with the housing market sagging and consumer confidence wavering, the result may be slowing growth.
Call it stagflation lite. The toxic combination last seen in the 1970s is bad news for consumers, companies and investors. Consumers find themselves squeezed by rising prices and diminishing job prospects. Profits take a hit as companies face mounting costs and diminishing demand. Investors' portfolios shrink with a swooning stock market.
It would also be bad news for President George W. Bush and his fellow Republicans, who've been counting on the economy's strength to revive their sagging popularity ahead of November congressional elections. An ABC/Washington Post poll released May 16 found 56 percent of Americans would like to see the Democrats win control of Congress from the Republicans.
Not the 1970s
No one foresees a return to the bad old days of the 1970s when unemployment and inflation both soared to post-World War II highs. The jobless rate peaked at 9 percent in May of 1975 while inflation topped out at 13.3 percent in 1979. One big difference now is strong productivity growth, which helps keep inflation in check and the economy growing. Non-farm productivity grew 2.7 percent last year; contrast that with 1979-80, when productivity shrank.
Still, Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York, sees a risk of growth slowing to 2 percent later this year, from almost 6 percent in the first quarter. Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors in Lisle, Illinois, talks of the possibility that ''core'' inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, will rise above 4 percent next year, close to double last year's level.
If they are both right, it may prove very uncomfortable for Bernanke, who took over leadership of the central bank in February.
''The Fed's in a very precarious position,'' says Stephen Cecchetti, former research director for the New York Fed and now professor of international economics at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts. ''Inflation is going to be pretty high by their standards, while growth is going to be slowing.''
Core Inflation
Just as in the 1970's, oil prices are surging, tripling over the past three years. While energy costs so far haven't fed through much into core inflation, that may be changing. Through the first four months of the year, core inflation rose at an annualized rate of 3 percent vs. 2.2 percent last year.
Meanwhile, back-to-back years of 3.5 percent-plus growth leave less slack in the U.S. economy. In April, U.S. industry operated with less spare capacity than at any time since July 2000.
Spare capacity is dwindling globally as well. The International Monetary Fund projects global growth of 4.9 percent this year, after 4.8 percent in 2005 and 5.3 percent in 2004, the strongest three-year stretch since the early 1970s.
That reduces the so-called global output gap, the excess of world supply over demand, and makes it easier for multinational companies to raise prices without fear of losing business to competitors.
Photo Rivals
Tokyo-based Fuji Photo Film Co., Japan's biggest film maker, said May 19 it will raise prices on photographic film and other products by as much 20 percent to cover increasing costs for silver, oil and other raw materials. The increase, the biggest since 1980, follows a price rise of as much as 17 percent by Eastman Kodak Co. of Rochester, New York, the world's biggest maker of photographic films.
''Price pressures are the strongest seen since the ugly 1970s and early 1980s,'' says William Dunkelberg, a professor at Philadelphia's Temple University who is also chief economist of the Washington-based National Federation of Independent Business.
Bernanke, 52, argues the economy now is different because inflation expectations remain contained. That's important because if companies and workers believe inflation is headed higher, their actions may help bring that result. Companies will raise prices while workers will demand higher wages.
Some signs suggest inflation expectations are edging up. The gap between yields on 10-year Treasuries and comparable inflation-linked government debt widened to 2.6 percentage points on May 18, from 2.3 points at the start of the year. The difference reflects investors' expectations for what inflation will average over the next decade.
Endangered Credibility
''The danger is the Fed loses its inflation-fighting credibility,'' says Bill Healey, senior vice president of interest rate products at GE Asset Management Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut.
Some investors wonder whether the Fed has let price pressures build by concentrating too much on core inflation, rather than focusing on overall numbers that include food and energy costs.
''People will lose patience that the core is the right measure if energy prices keep going up,'' says David Hensley, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.
Others complain that the government's pricing data has understated inflationary pressures by failing to take account of the 60 percent rise in house prices during the last five years. Instead, government statisticians use rents to measure housing costs, a practice that Cecchetti says depressed official inflation measures by a half to three-fourths of a percentage point during the housing boom.
Rising Rents
Now, rents are rising. A component of the CPI designed to impute a rental value on owner-occupied housing rose 0.4 percent in each of the last two months, the biggest back-to-back rise since 2001 and a major cause of the recent increase in core inflation.
That's no reason to dismiss evidence of mounting inflation, say economists including First Trust Advisors' Bill Mulvihill.
''If you keep removing things that are rising in price, like energy, food, and now housing, pretty soon you will see no price increases,'' he says. ''This is a scary path to walk down.''
While inflation expectations are rising, the housing market shows signs of buckling after the Fed's 16 interest rate increases. Housing starts fell 7.4 percent in April to a 17- month low. Homebuilder confidence was at its lowest point in almost 11 years in May.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence tumbled this month by the most since last year's hurricanes. A University of Michigan survey found that consumers are less inclined now to buy a home or an automobile than at any time in more than a decade.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said May 16 that earnings may suffer this quarter as near-record gasoline prices cause consumers to cut back on other purchases.
''This economic slowdown may be broader and deeper than we think,'' says Joe Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein Holding LP in New York, who foresees growth slowing to 2.4 percent this quarter.
If the scenario of sub-par growth and too-high inflation comes about, Bernanke and his colleagues will face unpalatable choices. Do they raise interest rates to squelch rising inflation and risk sending the economy into a tailspin? Or do they forgo increases in rates -- even cut them -- to cushion the declining economy and in the process run the danger of letting inflation accelerate?
Economic historians such as New York University professor Thomas Sargent say it was the Fed's mishandling of monetary policy, rather than the steep rise in oil prices, that was behind the economy's performance in the mid-to-late 1970s. That may be enough to keep Bernanke and his fellow Fed policy makers awake at night.
Handguns are a skill; shotguns an art; rifles a science.
_____________________________________
Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on whats for dinner.
Disarmament is the precursor to Genocide.
Better to take action now rather than chances later. Your choice. |
| Matrix
User ID: 84577
Australia
5/22/2006 9:10 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
"Government manipulation is happening and it's probably your hard earned tax that is paying to prop up the markets".
****************************************
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| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 95692
United States
5/22/2006 9:10 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
That Greenslime knew JUST when to get out! Poor sucker Beranke...LOL |
| Mic
User ID: 96515
 Germany
5/22/2006 9:11 AM
 | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
The DAX (German Index) lost 1.1 % |
| Optimistic Aussie from Perth
User ID: 1488
Australia
5/22/2006 9:13 AM
| | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
95692
Yep, it's all his work. He 'legalised' these 'derivatives'. |
| hatch battener
User ID: 96496
United States
5/22/2006 9:15 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
"I hardly say this is a crash. A long overdue correction more like it.">>>
You ain't seen nothing yet. By the historical P/E values, stocks should decline by 50%
And what is the argument that stocks should are so overblown today? That the economy is doing so well? Yeah, right. Your brokers are gonna cash out while the market tanks and you won't be able to get ahold of them, just like '87.
When the inevitable market meltdown occurs, it's gonna be the biggest class action lawsuit against the brokers in history, second to '87. Don't be fooled again@ |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 95692
United States
5/22/2006 9:17 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
"The economy is GREAT" said Bush
Guess his numbers will tank to ZERO if this does turn out to be the beginning of the crash. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 744
United Kingdom
5/22/2006 9:19 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
 some rich twats will become less rich I hope it compleatly tanks and all shares become worthless. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 91387
United States
5/22/2006 9:22 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
I have it on good authority the Feds are going to rescue us with a few billion freshly printed notes!!!
or maybe this is the reason for the tank??
Maybe everybody is getting tired of our freshly printed notes!!! |
| Cosmic Cadence
User ID: 96398
Australia
5/22/2006 9:22 AM
 | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Funny thing, and it may be only a coincidence, but whenever John Howard goes on an overseas trip something big happens.
911: Howard was visiting in Washington DC when the plane hit the Pentagon
Howard was visiting India when its Parliament was attacked by terrorists.
Howard was in London 'to meet Blair and to watch the cricket' when the London underground was bombed.
Now Howard is in Ireland and the world's markets begin to crash.
Howard is a loyal Bush ally (my man of steel, says Bush) and unquestioning member of 'coalition of the willing' and all it entails.
Funny eh?
'There never was a time when you or I did not exist. Nor will there be any future when we shall cease to be.'
- Krishna |
| F.B. Nyte
User ID: 18229
United States
5/22/2006 9:29 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Global economy headed for danger
By John Berthelsen
HONG KONG - The precipitous falls in equities markets across the world this week are raising concerns whether, after years of central-banker complacency, the global economy could be headed for a real crisis. They could be simply hiccups, but if they are, they are vicious ones. The entire year's gains in almost every world equities market have been erased in less than a week.
On Wednesday, the London market registered its biggest one-day percentage loss in three years; Germany's DAX index fell 3.4%; France's CA lost 3.2%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8%; the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%; and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 sank 1.7%. Compounding the gloom, prices for US Treasuries fell along with stocks, with yield on the benchmark 10-year note rising to 5.15%. Bond prices and yields move in
opposite directions. Though most bourses seemed to regain ground in early trading on Friday, the ominous signs remain.
At issue are fears that while the world's biggest central banks - the US Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank - have been watching out for interest rates and money growth, they have been ignoring, or at least been complacent about, the rapid proliferation of derivatives and the soaring price of gold and other commodities such as oil and copper. The Indian and Chinese governments, both of which have tame central banks and concerns about restive populations, have kept monetary policy relatively loose as well. Now, some economists believe, the sharp global market falls in both commodities and equities over the past few days could be the start of an economic nightmare. The central banks may have waited far too long to try to control inflation.
For instance, Dr Jim Walker, the Hong Kong-based economist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, told investors in a private newsletter this week, "We are possibly in the most dangerous period for global financial markets in my working life."
Walker is not alone. "The Fed is grappling with two risks: (i) that it has already tightened too much and that a sharp economic slowdown is in the works and (ii) that it has tightened too little and an acceleration of inflation is on the way," write Ethan Harris, Drew Matus and John Shin, economists with Lehman Brothers, in their May 12 Global Economics Monitor.
Geoffrey Barker, economist and macro-fund manager at Ballingal Investment Advisors in Hong Kong, says central banks have forgotten the lessons of the early 1980s, when Fed chairman Paul Volcker applied historic and painful brakes to inflation, driving up interest rates to the point where US five-year T-bills were commanding rates as high as 20% annually.
Until just this week, when the markets have started to come apart, a tidal wave of liquidity generated by rising commodity prices and derivatives has swamped financial markets, not only in Europe but emerging markets as well. Even a country as disastrously managed as the Philippines has experienced a stock-market surge to record peaks. Markets in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong have hit equally giddy heights as hot money has washed in from a global economy in which far too much money is chasing far too few financial instruments.
This liquidity has charged into commodities, emerging-market debt and equities, Asian currencies and particularly Chinese assets. Cross Border Capital, a financial advisory service, estimates total global financial assets now at US$74 trillion - $36 trillion in equities, $18 trillion in bonds and $20 trillion in liquid assets, looking for places to park on low interest rates.
Sean Darby, Asia strategist for Nomura, depicted one aspect of the phenomenon in April - a Sotheby's art and ceramic auction in which a painting of a pink lotus by Chang Yu sold for HK$28.12 million (US$3.62 million), more than five times the HK$5 million offer price. "Ironically, Chang Yu spent most of his life inventing games rather than painting, believing the former would make him rich and famous," Darby wrote. "We think the auction represents further anecdotal evidence that the financial economy is still flush with money."
Darby described what he called a "cocktail of global demand and excess liquidity ... helped by low real short interest rates and a lack of desire by corporates to replace inventory or reinvest in [capital expenditures]". He warned that central banks had left monetary policy too relaxed for too long, that the market underestimated growth, and that inflation signals that had emerged so far from the long bond market were misleading.
Alan Greenspan, previously everybody's favorite central banker, may have exited the stage just in time, leaving his successor, Ben Bernanke, with a series of seemingly intractable problems. Investors, particularly concerned about rising inflation, are watching anxiously to see how the Fed will react at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in late June (the FOMC is the Federal Reserve body that sets monetary policy). The consensus is increasingly that interest rates must go higher. They have reached neutral in the United States, and in Japan the central bank is steadily withdrawing excess liquidity - printing less money - in preparation for a rate rise.
But raising interest rates in the United States would have several consequences, none of them appetizing. At a time when the US - and world markets - are seemingly welcoming a cheaper dollar to try to control the country's huge and growing current-account deficit, a rise in interest rates means a flood of new money into US Treasuries to take advantage of the higher rates and adds to the deficit. Just on the growing belief that the Fed would have to raise interest rates, the US dollar rose overnight against the euro, the won, the New Taiwan dollar and the yen, among other currencies.
Second, rising interest rates in the US mean an automatic rise in mortgage rates as well. The average American family's debt load, which would be further exacerbated by any interest-rate rise, risks lower income growth and outright declines in home prices, Geoffrey Barker says. In a word, a rise in mortgage rates risks puncturing the already precarious US housing bubble, which is keeping the country's economy afloat. Millions of Americans have refinanced their homes and taken out the equity to spend for other possessions.
The average American now carries $10,000 worth of credit-card debt. Nor is the US alone. Mortgage rates, particularly in Hong Kong and other areas, parallel what happens in the United States, and homeowners - or in Hong Kong's case, apartment owners - are going to have to get used to sharply rising mortgage payments. Without a steady income stream and stability in the price of their largest asset - their homes - debt may become unbearable. Foreclosures once again will be a bank headache.
"Stagflation" is a word that came into the English language during the final years of president Jimmy Carter's administration in the US. The term refers to a period when rising commodity prices and previously lax monetary policy cost central bankers the ability to control inflation through interest-rate rises, and economies start to stagnate. A new nightmare for the US may be a new bout of stagflation - the combination of a stagnating economy and soaring interest rates that undid the markets in the final years of the Carter administration. It also undid the Carter administration itself.
Puru Saxena Ltd, a Hong Kong-based wealth manager, in a press release this week predicted oil would hit US$200 a barrel and gold would rise to $2,000 an ounce. It remains to be seen how long the current downturn in commodity prices will last. Demand in China and India and other newly industrializing economies does not appear to be about to abate. US President George W Bush may have a long two and a half years before he leaves office. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 96520
Australia
5/22/2006 9:31 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
Yep CC --- very good observations indeed
Howard is the harbinger of catastrophic events.
Look what he has done to Australian arts, culture, welfare programs, environment, education…
Zeroed them out
Now portending a global economic melt down?
This week will tell |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 96521
 Brazil
5/22/2006 9:32 AM | | Re: Stock Markets are crashing right NOW!!! | Quote |
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