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Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event

 
Anonymous Coward
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10/21/2013 11:52 AM
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Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Just a few things I feel everybody should consider, doom or not

1. First, I will post screenshots of Comet Encke’s proximity to Mercury with the same/date time nasa provides in it’s closest approach data (11/18/13). You can find that data, and most other data used here at the link immediately below.

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

These data relate to Nov 18th, 3 days prior to Encke’s perihelion or closest approach to the sun, slated for 11/21. This will be one day after November’s full moon, and Encke will have a distance of ~.025 AU from Mercury at this time.

[link to i1111.photobucket.com]

Since both ISON and Encke are estimated at approximately the same size, 3 miles, and that ISON had a recent close encounter with Mars on October 1st, I thought it would be interesting to compare what happened on Oct 1st to what may happen on the 18th. Mars actually turns out to be a good template, as you will see. ISON was ~.072 AU from Mars at it closest approach, about 3x farther than that of where Encke will be to Mercury.

mass density surface accel
Mars
.64174x10^24kg 3933kg/m3 3.69m/s2

Mercury
.3301x10^24kg 5427kg/m3 3.7m/s2


Both planets accelerate the same at the surface, but Mercury has half of Mars’ mass and is significantly more dense. This density, which WILL have an affect at the distance provided by nasa from Encke/Mercury, along with the potential for space weather, and ISON not far behind leaves some variables making it extremely hard to predict what could happen.

[link to i1111.photobucket.com]

Real quick, I want to compare right ascension (RA) and declination (dec), which is essentially a latitude and longitude in space, for each of the close encounters.

ENCKE- RA=14h 17.9m , DEC=South 12 degrees, 47' Mercury-RA=14h 19.45m, DEC=South 11 degrees, 27’

ISON- RA=9h, 36.1m, DEC= 17 degrees, 28'
Mars- RA= 9h, 37.5m, DEC= 15 degrees, 37’

There were some subtle yet significant changes to ISON’s course following the passage of Mars. From what I can gather when comparing the numbers, especially with the probable lack of stability within Encke’s nucleus due to it’s terribly short 3.3 year orbital period, along with its guaranteed variable orbit there is a possibility of a break-up event here. With ISON right behind, and set to make it’s closest approach to earth on Dec. 26th, I would want to be prepared in case it decided to bring anything with it. This comet (Encke) has already been implicated in the Tunguska Event and a multiple impact event on the far side of the moon in 1975; causing seismic disturbances on earth and perturbing our ionosphere. This comet is not harmless. Pg 467, last paragraph in link below.

[link to books.google.com]

Things to consider when hoping Mercury will have no effect on Encke-

1. It just so happens on the morning of 11/18/13 Mercury will have its Greatest Elongation (West) of the year; meaning it will be visible at sunrise and brighter than any of the other 4 elongations that occurred this year. (mag=.3). What a perfect day to be in an irregular configuration; meanwhile Encke makes it’s closest approach around 5AM UTC, 12AM eastern.

2.
Charged particles from Encke or even ISON (who’s perihelion is 7 days later on 11/28) could be accelerated as they interact with Mercury’s magnetotail. This could potentially cause a fragmentation to occur. As the article below will show you, Mars does not have this capability.

[link to onlinelibrary.wiley.com]

3.
Maybe not as important, but Mercury comes out of retrograde on Nov 10th, and on the 18th will be in a “post retrograde shadow.”

Remember, Mercury is always depicted wearing a helmet with wings and carrying some kind of staff.

[link to i1111.photobucket.com]

I will hope that the helmet isn’t symbolism for what I imagine that it is.
I challenge the reader to google image United States petroglyphs, take a look, then follow up and google image Asian petroglyphs. Essentially the same drawings, the same warnings, on 2 sides of the globe. They were trying to warn us.
Anonymous Coward
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10/21/2013 11:54 AM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
blink
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/21/2013 02:18 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
blink
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10044600


bump
pray_Italy

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10/21/2013 02:38 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
bump for later thorough reading.....

Meantime, I just happen to watch this video:

Tampa Heather

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10/21/2013 02:39 PM

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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Going back to re-read OP...

thanks for putting this together :)
Can't fix stupid & lazy
Tampa Heather

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10/21/2013 02:39 PM

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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Btw...5stars & a pin
Can't fix stupid & lazy
Tampa Heather

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10/21/2013 02:49 PM

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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
bump for later thorough reading.....

Meantime, I just happen to watch this video:


 Quoting: pray_Italy


Great video...Birkeland currents & Flux Transfer Events...some of my favorite things to learn about :)
Can't fix stupid & lazy
Anonymous Coward
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10/21/2013 02:51 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
So, are we looking at wormwood?
"Rev. 8:10 And the third angel sounded, and there fell a great star from heaven, burning as it were a lamp, and it fell upon the third part of the rivers, and upon the fountains of waters;
Rev. 8:11 And the name of the star is called Wormwood: and the third part of the waters became wormwood; and many men died of the waters, because they were made bitter."

Mercury might be up to bat, let's hope he hits a foul.
Anonymous Coward
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10/21/2013 02:56 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
According to this fragmented comets decelerate:

[link to www.lpi.usra.edu]

What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/21/2013 03:04 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Btw...5stars & a pin
 Quoting: Tampa Heather


thank you
Dr. AstroModerator
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10/21/2013 03:28 PM

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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding. I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it. You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments. There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments. The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration Γ is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. It is measured in radial direction only..."
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, the radial Vr, transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter Γ of the secondary relative to the primary component. Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet, positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it were oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations Γ of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller Γ values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2. At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion. Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory. To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
astrobanner2
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10/21/2013 03:44 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Your forgetting about Lovejoy. ISON is a 333.33 year orbit, ISON is Star of Bethlehem. Black Friday......
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/21/2013 03:47 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
So, are we looking at wormwood?
"Rev. 8:10 And the third angel sounded, and there fell a great star from heaven, burning as it were a lamp, and it fell upon the third part of the rivers, and upon the fountains of waters;
Rev. 8:11 And the name of the star is called Wormwood: and the third part of the waters became wormwood; and many men died of the waters, because they were made bitter."

Mercury might be up to bat, let's hope he hits a foul.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32821271



While I don't put too much stock into wormwood- Encke sounds more like it to me- pretty sure it has a green hue like the plant it was named after, I know its sptting out HCN and CN- for a fact

[link to meetingorganizer.copernicus.org]

and bitter almonds are most usually associated with CN-, as 1 bitter almond can produce ~10mg of the poison.
Dr. AstroModerator
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Your forgetting about Lovejoy. ISON is a 333.33 year orbit,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13967411

No, it's not.
astrobanner2
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10/21/2013 03:51 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Your forgetting about Lovejoy. ISON is a 333.33 year orbit,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13967411

No, it's not.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Astronomy skills are not analyst skills. Yes, it is.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/21/2013 03:55 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding. I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it. You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments. There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments. The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration Γ is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. It is measured in radial direction only..."
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, the radial Vr, transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter Γ of the secondary relative to the primary component. Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet, positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it were oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations Γ of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller Γ values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2. At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion. Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory. To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Whoa buddy,
Ill put up a screenshot of my notes if youd like....

2. You can quote as many papers as you'd like but there is no way you me or Einstein can figure out whats going to happen with those fragments, how large/small they will be, even if nasa decided to tell us they're actual physical properties.

I don't think ISON/fragments of ISON will hit (read for content next time), if anything Encke is the problem. What I'm saying is there is going to be an issue with the Sun, mercury, ISON and Encke all being right there at the same time. We should be working together with this not you getting mad over people reading my post.
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Your forgetting about Lovejoy. ISON is a 333.33 year orbit,
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13967411

No, it's not.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Astronomy skills are not analyst skills. Yes, it is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13967411


No, it's not. It is a hyperbolic comet, 333 years ago it was far outside the inner solar system.
astrobanner2
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding. I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it. You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments. There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments. The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration Γ is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. It is measured in radial direction only..."
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, the radial Vr, transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter Γ of the secondary relative to the primary component. Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet, positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it were oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations Γ of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller Γ values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2. At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion. Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory. To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Whoa buddy,
Ill put up a screenshot of my notes if youd like....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8479113

Show where you disagree with my math. My "notes" are already posted.
2. You can quote as many papers as you'd like but there is no way you me or Einstein can figure out whats going to happen with those fragments, how large/small they will be, even if nasa decided to tell us they're actual physical properties.
 Quoting: OP

Celestial mechanics 101. It does not matter. We know for a fact that even if it broke up at perihelion, it cannot and will not sent fragments to earth.
I don't think ISON/fragments of ISON will hit (read for content next time), if anything Encke is the problem.
 Quoting: OP

Changing horses and your problem is that you refuse to even acknowledge that it is possible to know that they won't hit even if it fragments when in fact it is possible to know.
astrobanner2
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10/21/2013 04:10 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding. I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it. You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments. There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments. The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration Γ is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. It is measured in radial direction only..."
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, the radial Vr, transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter Γ of the secondary relative to the primary component. Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet, positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it were oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations Γ of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller Γ values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2. At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion. Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory. To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Speak English ya mutt.

I don't understand how they can calculate any of this as they have no idea what the comet nuclei is made of and no idea what the degassing will be at or near the sun. According to this the velocity of a comet is affected by non-gravitational forces including degassing which are not constants:

[link to www.lpi.usra.edu]

What if it breaks in to a million pieces of metal (assuming that's at the core) as it spin around the sun. That would cause an absolute deceleration of the the fragments as there would be no degassing which would naturally cause propulsion. Is there a scientific model for such an event? In fact when is the last time a comet sling-shot around the sun?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/21/2013 04:11 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding. I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it. You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments. There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments. The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration Γ is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. It is measured in radial direction only..."
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, the radial Vr, transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter Γ of the secondary relative to the primary component. Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet, positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it were oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations Γ of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller Γ values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2. At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion. Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory. To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Whoa buddy,
Ill put up a screenshot of my notes if youd like....
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8479113

Show where you disagree with my math. My "notes" are already posted.
2. You can quote as many papers as you'd like but there is no way you me or Einstein can figure out whats going to happen with those fragments, how large/small they will be, even if nasa decided to tell us they're actual physical properties.
 Quoting: OP

Celestial mechanics 101. It does not matter. We know for a fact that even if it broke up at perihelion, it cannot and will not sent fragments to earth.
I don't think ISON/fragments of ISON will hit (read for content next time), if anything Encke is the problem.
 Quoting: OP

Changing horses and your problem is that you refuse to even acknowledge that it is possible to know that they won't hit even if it fragments when in fact it is possible to know.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro



Cool bro, listen when you figure out that formula type it here, I'll transfer to a planetary physics ph.d and finish by the end of the school year.

Until then though, why don't you bark up another tree, there's a few hundred stupider than this post.
Anonymous Coward
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10/21/2013 04:18 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Comet Negra is ISON.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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10/21/2013 04:21 PM
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding. I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it. You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments. There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments. The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration Γ is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. It is measured in radial direction only..."
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, the radial Vr, transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter Γ of the secondary relative to the primary component. Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet, positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it were oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations Γ of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller Γ values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2. At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion. Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory. To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Speak English ya mutt.

I don't understand how they can calculate any of this as they have no idea what the comet nuclei is made of and no idea what the degassing will be at or near the sun. According to this the velocity of a comet is affected by non-gravitational forces including degassing which are not constants:

[link to www.lpi.usra.edu]

What if it breaks in to a million pieces of metal (assuming that's at the core) as it spin around the sun. That would cause an absolute deceleration of the the fragments as there would be no degassing which would naturally cause propulsion. Is there a scientific model for such an event? In fact when is the last time a comet sling-shot around the sun?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629



I'm not sure what your asking. That's what I just referred to in astroduck's reply about the parameters, there are so many possibilities its hard to predict. I do know if small fragments of anything were in front of the earth-facing sun during an eruption they are Definitely going to be influenced. No question. Don't underestimate ISON or Encke, as they are both degassing and will continue to degas, until they rupture.

There's very little information on any of this, alot also isn't known.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event


What if it breaks in to a million pieces of metal (assuming that's at the core) as it spin around the sun. That would cause an absolute deceleration of the the fragments as there would be no degassing which would naturally cause propulsion. Is there a scientific model for such an event? In fact when is the last time a comet sling-shot around the sun?


Degassing does not provide "propulsion", the comets trajectory is purely a calculation of mass and gravity....so it doesnt matter what its made of, gravity will affect it and accelerate/decelerate it all the same.
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
oops, post above first paragraph is a quote, guess i messed it up when I was deleting sections from it so it wasnt huge
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
I'd be more worried about:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
and:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
between nov 16 and nov 30 they flank earth like escorts...
Dr. AstroModerator
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10/21/2013 04:35 PM

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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding. I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it. You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments. There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments. The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration Γ is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. It is measured in radial direction only..."
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, the radial Vr, transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter Γ of the secondary relative to the primary component. Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet, positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it were oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations Γ of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller Γ values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2. At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion. Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory. To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Speak English ya mutt.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629

It is english. It's not my problem if it's over your head.
I don't understand how they can calculate any of this as they have no idea what the comet nuclei is made of
 Quoting: AC

Wrong. They do have a very good idea what it's made of based on previous comets. Furthermore, it doesn't much matter what it's made of as far as celestial and orbital mechanics are concerned.
and no idea what the degassing will be at or near the sun.
 Quoting: AC

You mean outgassing and it does not matter.
According to this the velocity of a comet is affected by non-gravitational forces including degassing which are not constants:

[link to www.lpi.usra.edu]
 Quoting: AC

It's outgassing, not degassing. Don't bitch at me about my english when you butcher the terminology repeatedly yourself. Non-gravitational effects are minor, especially over short time scales. They are very important in determining the long-term orbits of periodic comets that constantly orbit within the solar system and are observed over hundreds of years, but they are less important to long-period comets where the effects weren't even detected until the late 1960's and 70's with high precision astrometry. Even then, because of how short the period is when the comet will actually be observable, the non-gravitational effects of outgassing are of academic interest more than anything else; they can make the difference in the long-term evolution of the comet's orbit and determine whether it will ultimately be a hyperbolic comet or not. To quote from your own paper:
"Modern astrometric positions, particularly those that are referenced to Hipparcos-based star catalogs and where the brightest pixel is employed as the true position of the cometary nucleus, are usually accurate to the subarcsecond level."
In other words, more than accurate enough even for most telescopic astrometry.
"Yet multiple apparition orbital solutions for active short-period comets cannot often provide a root mean square (rms) residual (observed minus computed observational position) that is subarcsecond."
In other words, where it matters is with short-period comets, not long period comets like ISON.
What if it breaks in to a million pieces of metal (assuming that's at the core) as it spin around the sun.
 Quoting: AC

Then those pieces will generally follow the orbit of the original comet as they retain the comet's inertia.
That would cause an absolute deceleration of the the fragments as there would be no degassing which would naturally cause propulsion.
 Quoting: AC

Word salad from someone with no idea what he's talking about. Outgassing is not "propelling the comet around the sun" like some kind stupid B grade movie sci-fi rocket. Good lord. Study celestial mechanics before you make such ridiculous claims. If all outgassing on ISON ceased this very second, the comet's nucleus would continue to orbit around the sun exactly as predicted anyway. Deceleration of fragments during fragmentation events is along the comet's velocity vector and as I already showed is orders of magnitude too small to matter and in the wrong direction to produce a collision trajectory. Even if you assumed for a moment that nearly the entire mass of the comet was volatile and capable of outgassing, and that it was outgassing in a single consistent direction aimed exactly at the vector needed to divert it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion, the fraction of the mass of the comet left after the necessary delta-V has been achieved is insanely, ridiculously low.
Let me put it to you like this; the mighty Saturn V rocket, the most powerful rocket ever flown, which lifted a payload smaller than the space shuttle, had a delta-V of about 12 km/sec. The Saturn V was a skyscraper which was about 95.7% explosive fuel by mass. And all of that fuel, directed in a very controlled and specific direction, got you a mere 12 km/sec delta-V. You would need about 5 times that much delta-V to put any piece of ISON onto an earth collision course, and it would have to be done in a very, very specific and sunward way at perihelion. A comet's outgassing velocity is also not nearly as high as a rocket, somewhere in the ballpark of 900 m/s for a comet (Combi et al 1997 [link to link.springer.com] ) vs somewhere around 4177 m/s for the upper stages of a Saturn V rocket. Let's assume ISON is 1km in diameter, and is a denser than normal comet, with 1g/cm^3. That would mean the total comet mass would be around 5.24 x 10^11 kg. In order to deliver 57 km/sec of delta-V, all but about 0.000000000000000163 kg of the comet would have to be "fuel." That is because delta V = Exhaust velocity * ln(total mass/final[payload] mass) The "payload fraction" that reaches earth would have a mass of 0.000000000000000163 kg.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Is there a scientific model for such an event? In fact when is the last time a comet sling-shot around the sun?
 Quoting: AC

Comets go around the sun all the time. It's not a true "slingshot" or what NASA calls a "gravity assist maneuver" unless it occurs around a planet in the solar system. Contrary to Star Trek IV, you essentially can't gain momentum relative to the sun by using the sun as the body around which to "slingshot" (true situation is slightly more complex due to the difference between the sun's center and the solar system barycenter, but for all intents and purposes you can't). You have to use a planet orbiting the sun.
astrobanner2
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
I'd be more worried about:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
and:
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
between nov 16 and nov 30 they flank earth like escorts...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1121290


Wow.
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3075628


What if it breaks in to a million pieces of metal (assuming that's at the core) as it spin around the sun. That would cause an absolute deceleration of the the fragments as there would be no degassing which would naturally cause propulsion. Is there a scientific model for such an event? In fact when is the last time a comet sling-shot around the sun?


Degassing does not provide "propulsion", the comets trajectory is purely a calculation of mass and gravity....so it doesnt matter what its made of, gravity will affect it and accelerate/decelerate it all the same.


It's called no-gravitational propulsion. And it's caused by degassing - which is not a constant and which changes as an object moves closer and further away from the sun:

Nongravitational Motions of Comets: Component of the Recoil Force Normal to Orbital Plane

[link to trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov]

Cometary Orbits and Nongravitational Forces

[link to www.lpi.usra.edu]

My question was - if a comet fragments in to many pieces is there any way to determine the velocity of (the various sized fragments) after fragmentation. Especially since the degassing would cease. And is there an other instance of a comet sling-shot around the sun as some form of a model on what could occur? The mutt didn't respond.

There are arguments that the nature and rotation of the nuclei as well as the area of sublimation can effect the propulsion. Anyway - ISON will hit the sun soon. No sense in arguing. Let's enjoy the show!
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
Sorry the angry Mutt did respond. Thanks Mutt!
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 3075628


What if it breaks in to a million pieces of metal (assuming that's at the core) as it spin around the sun. That would cause an absolute deceleration of the the fragments as there would be no degassing which would naturally cause propulsion. Is there a scientific model for such an event? In fact when is the last time a comet sling-shot around the sun?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 47820629


Degassing does not provide "propulsion", the comets trajectory is purely a calculation of mass and gravity....so it doesnt matter what its made of, gravity will affect it and accelerate/decelerate it all the same.


It's called no-gravitational propulsion. And it's caused by degassing - which is not a constant and which changes as an object moves closer and further away from the sun:

Nongravitational Motions of Comets: Component of the Recoil Force Normal to Orbital Plane

[link to trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov]

Cometary Orbits and Nongravitational Forces

[link to www.lpi.usra.edu]

My question was - if a comet fragments in to many pieces is there any way to determine the velocity of (the various sized fragments) after fragmentation. Especially since the degassing would cease. And is there an other instance of a comet sling-shot around the sun as some form of a model on what could occur? The mutt didn't respond.

There are arguments that the nature and rotation of the nuclei as well as the area of sublimation can effect the propulsion. Anyway - ISON will hit the sun soon. No sense in arguing. Let's enjoy the show!


Eh, out-gassing.
...
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Re: Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event
to Astro: shut up!!!!

Nobody asked you!!!!!

Nobody wants your opinion here!!!!

Blabber in your own silly assumptions-thread!!!!!


To OP: thank you for putting these things together, helps a lot!
Good information! Good article!

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