2 PDS's POSTED: Major Severe Weather Outbreak - Chicago to NYC! Violent, Long-Tracked Tornadoes. Straight-lined Winds Exceeding 100 mph!!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL...IND
AND FAR SW LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IL...LOWER
MI...OH...IND...KY AND WRN TN......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND TN VALLEY...

...TORNADO OUTBREAK WITH MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SRN
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...

AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND POWERFUL 80
TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. TODAY. AT
THE SFC...A LOW WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR DUE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED
AND BROAD 60 TO 75 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG
THE ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM NE AR NEWD INTO SRN IND AT
DAYBREAK WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY
AXIS THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
TRANSPORT LOW TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
OH VALLEY RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NE AR
NNEWD INTO CNTRL IL BY MID MORNING. DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SFC-BASED CELL INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MID MORNING ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL
IL WITH STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING EWD INTO IND AND LOWER MI BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CELLS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE APPEARS LIKELY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH THE LINE DEVELOPING SWD
INTO THE TN VALLEY DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT URBANA IL AND INDIANAPOLIS IND IN THE 18Z TO
21Z TIMEFRAME SHOW SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 70
KT...LOW-LCL HEIGHTS AND LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY AS DISCRETE CELLS INTENSIFY.
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 400 TO 450 M2/S2 WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH SEVERAL LONG-TRACK DAMAGING
TORNADOES EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ERN IL ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND
CNTRL IND FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS CELL COVERAGE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING FRONT...A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD
ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE ALONG WITH TORNADOES WITH ROTATING CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP SOUTH OF THE
OH RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CELLS INITIATE SWD ALONG THE
FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
A FAR SOUTH AS THE TN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AS AN EXTENSIVE LINE
OF SEVERE STORMS MOVES EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS.

SEVERAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE FIRST FACTOR IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
NEGATIVELY-TITLED AND VERY WELL-ORGANIZED. THE SECOND IS THAT THE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL BECOME FAVORABLY COUPLED IN THE OH
VALLEY TODAY COINCIDING WITH AN OUTBREAK OF STORMS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. THE THIRD IS THAT SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISCRETE
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES JUSTIFIES THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH
RISK ACROSS ERN IL...IND AND SW LOWER MI.

..BROYLES/BUNTING.. 11/17/2013

Last Edited by DoorBert on 11/17/2013 07:22 AM

Multi-media Briefing

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Madison County Emergency Management Agency
Warning Divisi

A large outbreak of severe weather is expected today across Indiana. See attached graphic from the Storm Prediction Center. A region of "High Risk" is only forecast a few times a year. It has been several years since such a region has included central Indiana.

The following are quotes from the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service Indianapolis office:

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL, IND AND FAR SW LOWER MI.
TORNADO OUTBREAK WITH MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.
A STRENGTHENING DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA WITH ITS COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND WIND SHEAR ACTING ON A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD THIS OCCUR THEY COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ILLINOIS AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ALSO TORNADOES. WITH THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EXPECT TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ESPECIALLY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE NOON - 7 PM. NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS NOON - 9 PM.
Spotters should be prepared to respond, especially this afternoon. First responders and power crews should also be prepared.

Thomas R. Harbron, Director of Warning
Madison County Emergency Management Agency

[link to mcemapress.blogspot.com]

Indiana is under a HIGH risk for severe weather today, with a TOR:CON level of 7, meaning 70 percent chance of tornadoes

[link to local.nixle.com]

[link to www.weather.com]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 11/17/2013 07:46 AM

Storm Mode

Initial thunderstorms will develop well ahead of the cold front. Given the extreme shear in the lower levels, these storms will likely evolve rapidly into low topped supercells, with the threat for tornadoes and damaging winds increasing. It will be at this time that the greatest threat for strong tornadoes will exist.

These storms may congeal into a broken line of storms and continue to race east, with a transition to significant damaging winds and isolated tornadic circulations.

Some scenerios indicate that a second line of thunderstorms could develop along the cold front and quickly catch up with the initial storms.

[link to www.crh.noaa.gov]

Latest Sounding from Peoria, IL

50 knot jet just above the boundary layer.

85 knot jet at mid level.

105 knot jet upper troposphere.

Looks nasty.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Whoa - worst will be about 2 to 8PM.

100-knot mid-level negative-tilted mid-level jet.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Ingredients show a well-defined target area.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]




Very likely will get a PDS this afternoon.

Stay tuned for updates.

Surface low forecast to rapidly deepen to 984 mb!

[link to www.twisterdata.com]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 11/17/2013 08:03 AM

There is a HIGH Risk of severe weather on Sunday.

We will keep you updated on wthr.com, Channel 13 and all of the social media platforms.

If you haven't yet, it would be a good time to download the SkyTrak13 Weather app to your smart phone.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late morning into early Sunday afternoon with another round possible mid afternoon into the early evening.

A Wind Advisory is in effect Sunday from 12 noon to 9pm.

Sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts around 45 mph will be possible.

[link to www.wthr.com]

NEEDS PINNAGE!

Potential for widespread damaging winds & several tornadoes on Sunday across parts of the Ohio Valley & Great Lakes

[link to pbs.twimg.com]

Rapidly deepening low pressure center occludes on track from Chicago to Grand Rapids & thru Michigan

[link to twitter.com]

SPC just updated the High-Risk Zone to include Chicago

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

TWC MET:

Chicago added to high risk.

18 million people in high risk alone.

NYC added to slight risk... 120 million in severe risk.

[link to twitter.com]

Storm Prediction Center has updated the HIGH RISK for severe weather to include the Joliet and Chicago Area. Be prepared and alert everyone.

[link to twitter.com]

Severe weather will move through Illinois and Indiana for most of Sunday, producing scattered thunderstorms, gusty winds, large hail and possibly isolated tornadoes.

The National Weather Service says there is a chance of damaging winds of up to 60 mph.

Local authorities will be keeping a closer watch on the weather around Soldier Field.

The Bears play the Baltimore Ravens with a 12pm kickoff. Fans attending the game are advised to pay attention to weather alerts.

The NFL has the authority to delay or interrupt the Bears Vs. Ravens game if needed.

No umbrellas are allowed inside Soldier Field.


Read more: [link to wgntv.com]

Violent long-lived tornadoes.

Straight-lined winds exceeding 100 mph.

[link to twitter.com]

:OMFGlulz:

We are out here on Long Island, and we have seen NOTHING for MONTHS. Everything fizzles out after Jersey. We are 10" below in rainfall and everything is a tinder box...

We get the same watches, warnings, projections...then it is like POOF, gone by the time it reaches us...

Thanks for posting. It will be an interesting day of weather watching for sure.

Any live stream?

Damn. Im right in the high risk zone, just west of Fort Wayne, IN

Thanks for pin Phen

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO...SERN IA...AND WRN/CENTRAL
AND NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171347Z - 171515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO
NRN/CENTRAL MO BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING QUICKLY
EWD INTO MUCH OF IL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO LONG-LIVED DISCRETE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS SUGGEST A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED BY MID-LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN-NERN
MO INTO SERN IA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SWRN IA INTO
NWRN MO /INVOF KANSAS CITY MO/...WITH THIS LIKELY INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ADVANCING EWD INTO THIS REGION. STORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED...ARE
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA ALONG AND N OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SWRN-NERN IA.

THE DEGREE OF FORCING ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT
OVER MO/IL /E.G. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO
AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKING
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2013

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Gentile child sacrifice is in order