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| 06:23 AM | ||
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Comet ISON's debris is following the original orbit of the comet. | |
Dr. Astro Senior Forum Moderator  User ID: 48376296  United States12/03/2013 01:59 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've had a lot of people ask me about this, so I wanted to go ahead and do some astrometry on the debris visible in SOHO's C3 imager as it left the field of view. Here's the image I used: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] Here's the astrometrically solved version of that image: [link to nova.astrometry.net] Here are the ephemeris I generated for ISON months before perihelion: [link to dropcanvas.com] Granted those ephemeris are specific to my observing site, not SOHO's position, but because we're dealing with a widefield imager here it won't matter to a huge extent. The main thing I want to answer is whether or not the debris is heading off in some strange direction as has been suggested by some posters. I have highlighted the spot where ISON was predicted to be in the astrometrically solved image with a green circle. Again, my ephemeris was generated way back in September, and as you can see, the debris is continuing to follow ISON's orbit, which means it's not a threat for "impact." [link to img138.imageshack.us] Of course, this also means that yes, we CAN know where a comet will go after perihelion before perihelion has happened.  |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 35561618 United States12/03/2013 02:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Dr. Astro (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 48376296 United States12/03/2013 02:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 31189608 United States12/03/2013 02:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 24942046  Canada12/03/2013 02:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| SaltyFlats User ID: 46790668 United States12/03/2013 02:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I even got a new scope for the event. So, Astro we have a 0.0 chance of seeing anything from the "comet of the century" I'm the west coast of Florida and would've had incredible pictures after sunset. Last Edited by SaltyFlats on 12/03/2013 02:07 PM For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. -Carl Sagan. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1679561 United States12/03/2013 02:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've had a lot of people ask me about this, so I wanted to go ahead and do some astrometry on the debris visible in SOHO's C3 imager as it left the field of view. Here's the image I used: Quoting: Dr. Astro [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] Here's the astrometrically solved version of that image: [link to nova.astrometry.net] Here are the ephemeris I generated for ISON months before perihelion: [link to dropcanvas.com] Granted those ephemeris are specific to my observing site, not SOHO's position, but because we're dealing with a widefield imager here it won't matter to a huge extent. The main thing I want to answer is whether or not the debris is heading off in some strange direction as has been suggested by some posters. I have highlighted the spot where ISON was predicted to be in the astrometrically solved image with a green circle. Again, my ephemeris was generated way back in September, and as you can see, the debris is continuing to follow ISON's orbit, which means it's not a threat for "impact." [link to img138.imageshack.us] Of course, this also means that yes, we CAN know where a comet will go after perihelion before perihelion has happened. Thank you, Astro. I see the throngs of Butthurt Doom-tards are already busy one starring your thread. |
| Dr. Astro (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 48376296 United States12/03/2013 02:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So when this comet fragmented, did the pieces stay in a row or did they fan out on the horizontal, vertical, or both? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31189608 I'm not sure; I'd have to take a closer look at the three spacecraft that watched it and try to reconstruct a 3 model of the diffusion. It doesn't much matter though; even by the time it reached the edge of the SOHO C3 FOV days later the "cloud" left by ISON was only about half a degree wide in the FOV. |
| Dr. Astro (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 48376296 United States12/03/2013 02:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I got up at 5am for ten days straight before perihelion and it was overcast every morning here in Florida. Quoting: SaltyFlats I even got a new scope for the event. So, Astro we have a 0.0 chance of seeing anything from the "comet of the century" I'm the west coast of Florida and would've had incredible pictures after sunset. You might be able to photograph the remains with a telescope once it gets a bit farther from the sun. In general though, it's a complete dud. |
| 2012Portal 2012Portal - Mayan Beyond 2012 User ID: 15022013  Netherlands12/03/2013 02:08 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Interesting, but the debris field is much wider then a complete comet, right? Also, can not the solar winds and other gravitational pulls effect the orbit of dust and debris? From the love of power to the power of Love - My camera and video gear: [link to graphicstart.com] --- --- --- "Jesus Christ, the Son of God our Savior" |
| green_girl User ID: 49871189 Canada12/03/2013 02:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 24942046 Canada12/03/2013 02:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| #Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 44557506 United States12/03/2013 02:09 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I got up at 5am for ten days straight before perihelion and it was overcast every morning here in Florida. Quoting: SaltyFlats I even got a new scope for the event. So, Astro we have a 0.0 chance of seeing anything from the "comet of the century" I'm the west coast of Florida and would've had incredible pictures after sunset. Unfortunately, doubtful. |
| boilerbengal User ID: 49615122 United States12/03/2013 02:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | take a magnet and a 16 penny nail and on a table see how close the magnet gets to the nail before its affected. now with the same magnet get some sewing straight pins and do the same thing. the straight pins represent the fragments of ISON . the sun will have an affect on the smaller pieces slowing them. so whats left of ISON might not travel in front of our orbit but in fact pepper us like a shotgun. DOOM ON --- put the tomato plants back inside. A Clear Choice Is Upon US. Communists VS. Capitalists |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 31189608 United States12/03/2013 02:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So when this comet fragmented, did the pieces stay in a row or did they fan out on the horizontal, vertical, or both? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31189608 I'm not sure; I'd have to take a closer look at the three spacecraft that watched it and try to reconstruct a 3 model of the diffusion. It doesn't much matter though; even by the time it reached the edge of the SOHO C3 FOV days later the "cloud" left by ISON was only about half a degree wide in the FOV. Thank you. Would be interesting to know how the fragments behaved post fragmentation until the 26th. Please keep me posted. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 24942046 Canada12/03/2013 02:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Dr. Astro (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 48376296 United States12/03/2013 02:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Dr. Astro (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 48376296 United States12/03/2013 02:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | take a magnet and a 16 penny nail and on a table see how close the magnet gets to the nail before its affected. Quoting: boilerbengal now with the same magnet get some sewing straight pins and do the same thing. the straight pins represent the fragments of ISON . the sun will have an affect on the smaller pieces slowing them. so whats left of ISON might not travel in front of our orbit but in fact pepper us like a shotgun. DOOM ON --- put the tomato plants back inside. You missed the point; it's going far above our orbit. The debris is still following that trajectory, it's not coming anywhere near us. It wouldn't even matter if it was "slowed down" and hit the same ecliptic longitude as earth while passing 1 AU - it still would pass far above us. |
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| Anonymous Coward User ID: 24942046 Canada12/03/2013 02:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| reversefiction User ID: 28732800 United States12/03/2013 02:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Astro. What are the chances that it reconstitutes back into a comet on its way out? I dont mean anytime soon like well be able to see it. But say after it passes the astroid field and picks up some more dust. Or is it just going to dissolve entirely? // My definition of insanity. bool try() { return false; } void insanity() { bool success = false; while(!success) { if(try()) { break; } } } |
| Neptune Fabricator User ID: 43484772 United States12/03/2013 02:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | take a magnet and a 16 penny nail and on a table see how close the magnet gets to the nail before its affected. Quoting: boilerbengal now with the same magnet get some sewing straight pins and do the same thing. the straight pins represent the fragments of ISON . the sun will have an affect on the smaller pieces slowing them. so whats left of ISON might not travel in front of our orbit but in fact pepper us like a shotgun. DOOM ON --- put the tomato plants back inside. You missed the point; it's going far above our orbit. The debris is still following that trajectory, it's not coming anywhere near us. It wouldn't even matter if it was "slowed down" and hit the same ecliptic longitude as earth while passing 1 AU - it still would pass far above us. So as it bounces off the sun. And spun out of control At over 800,000 mph. It was not effected at all? There are not a billion ISON chunks headed our way. …  ...Your Own Personal Jesus... |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1428203 United States12/03/2013 02:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Dr. Astro (OP) Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 4211721 United States12/03/2013 02:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | take a magnet and a 16 penny nail and on a table see how close the magnet gets to the nail before its affected. Quoting: boilerbengal now with the same magnet get some sewing straight pins and do the same thing. the straight pins represent the fragments of ISON . the sun will have an affect on the smaller pieces slowing them. so whats left of ISON might not travel in front of our orbit but in fact pepper us like a shotgun. DOOM ON --- put the tomato plants back inside. You missed the point; it's going far above our orbit. The debris is still following that trajectory, it's not coming anywhere near us. It wouldn't even matter if it was "slowed down" and hit the same ecliptic longitude as earth while passing 1 AU - it still would pass far above us. So as it bounces off the sun. And spun out of control At over 800,000 mph. It was not effected at all? There are not a billion ISON chunks headed our way. … It didn't "bounce" off the sun, the debris is continuing to follow the orbit I predicted back in September. |
| KartAnimal29 User ID: 50932487 United States12/03/2013 02:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 18000125 United States12/03/2013 02:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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| Squatch team 6 User ID: 44984383 United States12/03/2013 02:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi Astro, Do you think we will get any images like we did with comet 73p/Schwassman-Wachmann? [link to en.wikipedia.org] Thanks |
| boilerbengal User ID: 49615122 United States12/03/2013 02:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | take a magnet and a 16 penny nail and on a table see how close the magnet gets to the nail before its affected. Quoting: boilerbengal now with the same magnet get some sewing straight pins and do the same thing. the straight pins represent the fragments of ISON . the sun will have an affect on the smaller pieces slowing them. so whats left of ISON might not travel in front of our orbit but in fact pepper us like a shotgun. DOOM ON --- put the tomato plants back inside. You missed the point; it's going far above our orbit. The debris is still following that trajectory, it's not coming anywhere near us. It wouldn't even matter if it was "slowed down" and hit the same ecliptic longitude as earth while passing 1 AU - it still would pass far above us. So as it bounces off the sun. And spun out of control At over 800,000 mph. It was not effected at all? There are not a billion ISON chunks headed our way. … It didn't "bounce" off the sun, the debris is continuing to follow the orbit I predicted back in September. the thing exploded and is mushrooming outwards, what trajectory ? like a double barrel shotgun. boom. A Clear Choice Is Upon US. Communists VS. Capitalists |
