HERCULES SNOWSTORM: 5 degrees in NYC at 7am. NEW RECORD LOW. Previous record was 6 from 1896!!!

:s27bump2:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1 h
4950 gpm polar vortex sitting over South Bend Indiana "originates" / trackable from North of Greenland -- epic pic. [link to twitter.com (secure)]


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1 h
No words for this ... 7-day forecast from ECMWF 12z [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3 h
GFS 12z is (very) very cold Saturday morning in Northeast. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 24 m
@wattsupwiththat looks like an active winter pattern for eastern half of US. West coast not participating

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 16 m
New video: In-depth discussion of potential major Wed-Fri snowstorm from meteorologist @WxNick: [link to wxch.nl] #winter

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 7h
Watching for the potential of a major snowstorm to develop for the Northeast: [link to www.accuweather.com]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h
ECWMF: NO RETREAT, NO SURRENDER
Snow by Sat am,with Sat am lows.. now below -10 in NYC
think -5 more likely [link to twitter.com (secure)]

This week or next week?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2 h
Major cold week one followed by what may be unheard of cold week two in some places. GFS goes bonkers [link to twitter.com (secure)]

This week and likely the next one will be worse...

I heard this on the news this morning. I hope it misses us!

Please prepare it will not miss you...

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 1h
Here's EURO 4cast RT @WSI_Energy 12z ECMWF snow bomb for I-95. 6-12" DCA to NYC, 20" BOS (WSI snow algorithm based) [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 1 h
Confidence grows on HIGH IMPACT SNOW event Friday 4 entire megalopolis. GFS: [link to 204.2.104.196]


Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 6 h
Oh yes RT @wxjerdman: Still 4 days out, but Friday AM rush in #Boston could be "challenging" [link to wxch.nl] #MAwx

Should make the power cartels some nice profits. Saw an article about lower autumn profits due to nice weather.

Monday, December 30, 2013 January 1-3 Significant Winter Storm - Part I (Midwest, Great Lakes) By Andrew at 8:34 AM This post will address the first part of the January 1-3 winter storm, where anomalously strong clipper system will lay down significant snows in portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes. You can find the link to Part II, which addresses the effects on the Northeast, at the bottom of this post. Global model guidance is in agreement with an Alberta Clipper system dropping down from Canada and traversing the Plains to enter the Midwest. Model discrepancies begin to evolve early on, namely when the NAM model takes the snow swath unusually far north into Central Wisconsin. More recent runs of that model have corrected southward back towards Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, but that model will still have to be monitored. GFS/GGEM/ECMWF models hold the consensus with this super-charged clipper, as all three bring about significant snows stretching from Iowa to Chicago back into portions of Indiana and near Ohio. Global model guidance has been putting down liquid amounts around 0.6" to even 1.0" in northern Illinois into Michigan, and it is those areas highlighted above by the ECMWF that we are monitoring in this post. This event is actually a combination of as many as three different clipper events, with the third one bringing the most snow around New Year's Day. Because they're clippers, right off the bat we are going to most likely see higher snow-to-liquid ratios than usual. A typical snowfall has a 10:1 ratio, which means 10 inches of snow could be melted down into 1 inch of water. In this case, however, we're thinking that places like Chicago could see snow ratios of 15:1 or even 18:1, which means 1 inch of water could theoretically be fluffed up into 18 inches of snow. The ECMWF model above gives downtown Chicago 1" of precipitation, thanks to some additional lake enhancement, and if we were to use a 15:1 ratio throughout the whole event, maybe ending on higher ratios in response to possible lake enhancement, I could envision up to 15-17" of snow. Realistically, that is unlikely to happen. I find the ECMWF to be too bullish (overdone with precipitation) for my liking. The GFS/GGEM seem slightly more in line, with amounts closer to 8-15" being produced. This event would be a significant one if it were to verify as it stands right now. And while I don't trust the 15"+ forecast being implied by the ECMWF, it is theoretically within the realm of possibility. My thinking for this part of the event is that the areas of southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, southern Michigan and northern Ohio will receive heavy snowfall from this system. Based on current model projections, I would issue a call for 10-15" for those areas (with potentially higher isolated amounts), but based on a slight concern models may draw back on QPF projections (quantitative precipitation forecasts, also known as precipitation forecasts), I'll go with a conservative 8-12" for the aforementioned regions, with the very possible chance for higher amounts. For Part II of the January 1-3 Significant Winter Storm, please click here. Andrew - See more at: [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

I will, thanks Luis. I'll be watching your updates and will post any local updates I get

January 1-3 Significant Winter Storm - Part II (Northeast) By Andrew at 8:33 AM This post will address the potentially significant snowstorm that is aiming for the Northeast. If you would like to see Part I, where I address the potentially significant snowfall in the Midwest and Great Lakes from this storm, please click here. Tropical Tidbits Valid January 2nd, morning. The mean sea level pressure from the GFS model shows how this potentially significant snowstorm may evolve. We see the super-charged semi-clipper that was elaborated on in Part I over Indiana, but then we see another low pressure system skirting to the east of high pressure based in Georgia. It is these two bodies of low pressure that we are monitoring closely for what they will do. Current projections include phasing (combining) of the two systems, but the question is: When will they phase? In this case, timing is key. Model guidance remains at least slightly uncertain with when these two systems will phase into one, stronger low pressure system. It is believed that the earlier the systems phase, the more snow they can spread on to more residents of the Northeast. Similarly, the later the systems phase, the less snow they provide to fewer residents. Tropical Tidbits Valid January 2nd, afternoon. Roughly 12 hours after the first image in this post, the GFS model has the two systems interacting. Originally, these two systems were at 1010 millibars just three hours before this image you see above. Now, with the low pressure system offshore the Northeast stronger than the one just south of Pennsylvania, it is apparent that the clipper system will be transferring its energy east to the system offshore New Jersey. Just a handful of hours later, the system has phased into a sub-1000mb system. However, it is further offshore than many in the Northeast would like, leading to less snow. The GFS isn't the only solution in the mix, however. WeatherBell The ECMWF is slower with this system, having it phase completely on the morning of January 3rd. Because timing is key with when these two systems will phase, it is apparent that this timing difference between the ECMWF and GFS is a significant factor in each guidance system's solution. The ECMWF has this system phase earlier and become stronger than the GFS, with an added bonus of keeping the system closer to land than the GFS. The precipitation and MSLP image above from the ECMWF, again valid on the morning of January 3rd, shows a 978 millibar storm system due east of New Jersey, spreading intense snowfall across Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and into Maine. Even coastal regions to the south of NY, VT and NH get in on some snowy weather. The snowfall image from the ECMWF below paints the full picture: Also worth noting is that the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is on board with the earlier phasing. So what do I think will happen? I'm thinking we do see something along the lines of the ECMWF verify. I do not believe we see the huge ~24" totals (models have a tendency this winter to back off of big precipitation forecasts just prior to an event), though significant snowfall is certainly within the realm of possibility, even likelihood. I feel we see a swath of heavy snow ("heavy snow" meaning 8"+) stretching from New York/Pennsylvania out to Maine in very similar fashion to what the ECMWF portrays above. I would also monitor future model runs to keep an eye on that southern cutoff of snow totals for coastal regions, as I feel those areas will have to go into the event with a 'now-casting' mindset. Andrew - See more at: [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Yikes
I'm in Ontario Canada and I'm presuming we will see some of this COLD!

It is minus freakin cold here today!

WPC 11am discussion-excerpt

THE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE LOW UNDERGOING BOMBOGENESIS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON A SOLUTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH EACH MODEL HAVING ITS OWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ISSUES. IN GENERAL...THE GFS HAS BEEN DEEPENING THE LOW FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND IS ONE OF THE QUICKEST TO RACE THE STORM INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TENDED TO DEEPEN THE LOW
CLOSER TO COAST AND HAS BEEN ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL SPREAD
WITH LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. THE MEANS HAVE BEEN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...IN ADDITION TO A LARGE SHIFT IN THE 00Z ECMWF
TOWARDS A CLOSER TO THE COAST/SLOWER SOLUTION...HINTS THAT THERE
IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PLUS...THE 00Z RUN OF THE UKMET IS ADVERTISING A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION...WHICH IS MUCH FLATTER AND TRACKS
MULTIPLE...WEAKER...SURFACE WAVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
DID NOT STRAY AWAY FROM CONTINUITY...WHICH WAS BASED ON
YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

BY THIS WEEKEND...THE ATTENTION WILL SHIFT UPSTREAM AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC BOUNDARY PLUNGES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN TO BE ON THE STRONGER/COLDER SIDE
OF MODEL SPREAD WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...BUT GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THIS
SEASON...THE WPC FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE COLDER SIDE OF MODEL
SPREAD. THIS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS WITH CONTINUITY...WHICH RELIED
HEAVILY ON YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

Check your antifreeze level of protection. Check your tires for proper air. Check your battery terminals for corrosion.



You don't want car problems when this hits.

I better get the wife a new shovel.

I have such a hard time reading these things. I am in Albany NY. When can we expect snow and how much, please.

Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 31 m
Forecast high Thu in Caribou ME: -15ºF. All-time coldest high recorded there is -16º. More on cold blast: [link to wxch.nl]

[link to climate.cod.edu]

music to my ears, a smile to my face. Let the winter roll!!

from the NWS...................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AS
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

panhandle of florida nws...LONG TERM [Thursday Through next Monday]...
The low will lift northeast of the area during the day Thursday, but
not before bringing us another period of likely PoPs. Rainfall
totals will be similar to the last event, generally 1-2 inches. A
strong cold front will cross the forecast area Thursday night,
shunting all of the moisture south and east of the area.
Temperatures will dip below normal with our northwestern zones
getting a brief freeze north of a line from ABY-DHN-CEW. Friday will
be a sunny and cold day with highs only making it into the upper 40s
northwest and lower 50s southeast. This will set the stage for a
widespread longer-duration freeze on Friday night. The center of
this arctic high will be well north of the area over PA, so we do
not believe that we will see calm winds and ideal radiational
cooling conditions, nor the hard freeze that the Euro is
advertising. Nevertheless, it could be the coldest night of the
season so far for some locations. We bring rain chances back into
the forecast for Sunday and Monday with near normal
temperatures. However, the models have yet to reach a consensus on
their handling of this next frontal system with the Euro much more
energetic and wet than the GFS. Therefore, confidence is lower
than normal for that part of the forecast.