'THE END IS HERE': ISIS/ISLAMIC STATE PRIMER

Summary of the military situation: [link to www.brookings.edu]

Summary, June 15th

Map: [link to static2.businessinsider.com]

Map of military disposition around Baghdad: [link to www.syrianperspective.com]

Northern Front (Kurdistan): Kurdistan's local parliament ordered Peshmerga forces to remain in Kurdistan. ISIS commander Abu Omar al-Esseily killed in Mosul. Confused reports that ISF planes are bombing Peshmerga sites in Kurdistan.

Western Front (Syria Border): ISIS seize Turkoman Tal Afar west of Mosul (pop. 200,000).

Eastern Front (Baghdad North): CBS reports that Quds leader Qasem Soleimani is in Baghdad to personally advise the Iraqi government, later followed by news that Quds have taken operational command of Baghdad's defense. ISIS attacks and bypasses ISF military base at Taji, breaking through the Marduk Line in the north. Intense fighting breaks out at Taji itself. Meanwhile, car bombs explode throughout the day in Baghdad as ISIS finally launch their awaited attack on the city, entering Aamariya in the west and shelling Baghdad International Airport. The Iraqi government cuts internet to the US Embassy shortly before the Examiner reports a text message from within the Embassy reading "All lost Alamo." Within an hour news breaks that the US is evacuating the Embassy. ISF forces retreat from Diyala governate in wake of attack on Baghdad.

Eastern Front (Baghdad South): Iraqi military claims 200,000 civilians have heeded the call to defend Baghdad, mostly from Shia regions south of the city.

External: ISIS vows to topple to Middle East monarchies (looking at you Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE). US preparing to evacuate Green Zone. Australia added to the list of countries evacuating all its citizens from Iraq. Israel has launched a military and police operation in Gaza/West Bank to find the kidnapped Israelis.

Analysis: ISIS has made a significant advance in the northwest by seizing Tal Afar, securing an additional route to Syria. Pressure is on Baghdad following ISF withdrawal from Anbar and Diyala; ISIS is now in position to attack Taji in the north and the western suburbs. This pressure comes as sleeper cells awake in the city and attack key sites, including Shia gatherings. Evidence suggests ISIS will break the last ISF pockets of defense around Baghdad in coming days, unless something changes.

Great map and overall analysis and updates so far. Per that map, here's how I see it going down, or at least how I would take Baghdad if I were in the ISIL positions from a purely militarily stand point / game theory.

1.The troops in Hussainiyah (directly north of Baghdad) need to be armed with the best weapons (anti everything) and backed by hardened troops to withstand a substantial attack and hold a strategic position to defend from any Iraqi probe until reinforces and the last pockets of resistance are removed.
a) the pockets of resistance are camp ashraf, which when it falls will allow ISIL forces to link up and capture the strategic point in the north. The loss of ashraf would signal the already beat up bald airbase Iraqi troops remaining to disperse . This move allows full reinforcements and supply line to Hussainiyah as all other pockets between it and baqubah would be gone. The north of Baghdad is now in ISIL control and phase one done.

2. Coordinated two pronged attack on Baghdad intl (south Baghdad) from fallujah and mada'in as a feint for the real assault on Baghdad proper from the south once confirmation of Phase one above complete.
a) the airport - well armed divisions from fallujah and mada'in will depart en route for the airport under the cover of darkness. 75% of each army falujah force and mada'in) will detach and hook towards Baghdad proper. The 25% of each remaining force will coordinate their attack with preexisting advanced units at the airport still under the cover of darkness. A blitz from both north and south would overwhelm the enemy in the confusion of the pace.
b) Baghdad - the 75% of above mentioned troops will commence their attack from both prongs once the situation at the airport has gotten thickest and Iraqi troops are fleeing. This confusion will fog your movements in the city as the reports coming into Iraq hq will be conflicting and chaotic. Coordinated with a force from the north (Hussainiyah) Baghdad will be once again in a vice. The city would fall by noon or at least most pockets. (Excluding green zone ..)


.....

I'm going to omit the green zone potential attack, which I believe would be a success as the Obama administration would refuse to fire in fear of initiating American intervention as a death would not be allowed, because I still believe the American govt has aided and abetted ISIL to its prominence and everything they've gained in the invasion was a way of gifting vast technology and strategic superiority to ISIL for Syria as they couldn't openly give tanks and heavy weaponry. Just like they gifted the drones perhaps to Iran and Pakistan

That's a very plausible story. Thanks for contributing!

Summary, June 16th

Map (via BBC): [link to i1.wp.com]

A day without significant developments. Fighting continued in Salahuddin and Diyala in the northeast, and around Tal Afar in the northwest.

Analysis: The lack of significant developments is revealing. It entails that the ISIS advance has been halted on Baghdad's doorstep. Further, ISF forces have been unable to make any notable advances against ISIS gains. At this point, we are waiting for something to break the deadlock.

"Iraq's supreme court ratified the results of the April 30 parliamentary elections on Monday.

The State of Law bloc led by Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki won the the parliamentary elections, taking 92 of the 328 seats.

Al-Maliki needs support from 165 lawmakers to lead the next government in what would be his third term as prime minister."

[link to www.dailysabah.com]

Update to page 1.

Diyala Governate

"Diyala Governorate extends to the northeast of Baghdad as far as the Iranian border. Its capital is Baqubah.

A large portion of the province is drained by the Diyala River, a major tributary of the Tigris. Because of its proximity to two major sources of water, Diyala's main industry is agriculture, primarily dates grown in large groves. The province also contains one of the largest olive groves in the Middle East. It is also recognized as the orange capital of the Middle East.

In 2003, it had an estimated population of some 1,224,000 people. Iraqi Arabs comprise about 82 percent of the governorate, Iraqi Kurds about 16 percent (predominantly in the Khanaquin and Kifri districts), and Iraqi Turkmen about 2 percent. Around 75% of the population live in the major cities: Baqubah, Muqdadiyah and Khanaqin.

In December 2011, the governing council in Diyala province declared itself a semi-autonomous region within Iraq. This comes two months after Salahuddin Governorate made a similar declaration. The council in Diyala, using Article 119 of the Iraqi Constitution as justification, made the declaration because of suspicion of the Shi'a-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki."

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Baghdad Governate

"Baghdad Governorate, also known as the Baghdad Province, is the capital governorate of Iraq. It includes the City of Baghdad, as well as the surrounding metropolitan area, which includes Al-Mada'in (Seleucia-Ctesiphon), Taji, Mahmudiya District and Abu Ghraib District. The province has a total area of 4,071 square kilometres (1,572 sq mi), the smallest of the 18 provinces of Iraq but the most populous.

Baghdad Governorate is one of the most developed parts of Iraq, with a better infrastructure than much of Iraq, though heavily damaged from the US-led invasion in 2003 and continuing violence today. It also has one of the highest rates for terrorism in the world with bombs, suicide attackers, and hit squads operating in the city.

Baghdad has at least 12 bridges spanning the Tigris river - joining the east and west of the city. The Sadr City district of the capital is the most densely populated area in Iraq.

Population (2012 Estimate): 9,500,000

Time zone: Iraqi Standard Time (UTC +3)"

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Salahuddin Governate

"Saladin Governorate is a governorate in Iraq, north of Baghdad. The governorate has an area of 24,363 square kilometres (9,407 sq mi). The estimated population for 2003 was 1,042,200 people. The capital is Tikrit; the governorate also contains the significantly larger city of Samarra. Before 1976 the governorate was part of Baghdad Governorate.

The province is named after Saladin (written Salah ad-Din in modern Arabic Latin transcription), a Muslim leader who defeated the Crusaders at Hattin, who hailed from the province. Salah ad Din was the home province of Saddam Hussein; he was born in Al-Awja, a town near Tikrit.

In October 2011, the government in Saladin governorate declared itself a semi-autonomous region within Iraq. The government explained that the declaration was in response to the central government's "domination over the provincial council authorities". Saladin, which is a largely Sunni governorate, is also hoping that by declaring themselves an autonomous region within Iraq, that it will entail them to a larger portion of government funding. The council cited "article 119 of Iraq's constitution" in its call for autonomy, which states that "one or more governorates [provinces] shall have the right to organize into a region" if one third of the Provincial Council members or one tenth of the voters request to form a region"."

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Summary, June 19th

Map 6/19: [link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]

- Fighting continues around the Baiji refinery.
- The US commits to sending military advisers to the ISF, but nothing more.
- ISIS reportedly seized chemical weapons.

Summary, June 20th

- ISIS recaptures Tikrit
- Baiji remains contested
- Crude oil goes vertical
- Christians executed in Mosul for refusing to convert to Islam
- Pro-ISIS rallies in Jordan and Palestine
- ISIS calls for attacks on England
- Shi'ite Ayatollah Ali Sistani holds Shi'ite Iraqi PM Maliki personally responsible for the crisis
- US military advisers arrive Saturday
- Putin offers Maliki "full support"
- Peshmerga launch counteroffensive near Tikrit
- Maliki forces reportedly storm houses near Green Zone and seize all weapons
- Baiji refinery struck; oil leaking and burning

Front page updated for June 21-23.

A brief summary of the ISIS crisis in the context of geopolitical and historical factors, particularly the Arab Spring.

(Edited from a couple of posts I made on Luis' thread)

This all began before Syria. ISIS' predecessor, ISI, was the Iraqi front of Al Qaeda. As such, it was composed of jihadists from all over the world. The present crisis is just a step in a history going back to America's creation of Al Qaeda back in the 80s.

Basically, America wanted to create militant Sunni organizations to offset the new jihadist and pro-Communist regime in Iran, which overthrew the American-backed Shah-regime in '79. Back then, America was terrified of an Islamic anti-American revolution spreading throughout the Islamic world and of the prospect of losing a foothold in the oil-rich Middle East. This was, recall, just after the gas and inflation crises of the 70s.

Militant Sunni guerrilla forces were the answer. Al Qaeda spent much of its history fighting the Iranians (and even the Sauds). However, the great historical problem of these groups is that most of them "went native" and, by radicalizing the Islamic world's youth, were infused with a new generation of militants without concern for America's foreign policy interests. They rebelled against America, but the Clinton administration was happy to keep supporting them via the CIA. Simply put, even if they were no longer coordinating with the West, they were still a thorn in Russia and Iran's side. This changed, or so the story goes, with 9/11 (personally, I don't know whether that was an inside job or not - the evidence is compelling, but I take no stand).

With the invasion of Iraq, these Sunni militants suddenly found reason to openly attack American interests. Yes, isolated incidents had occurred before the invasion, but things really picked up after 2003.

The seeds of Sunni jihad that America had planted in the 80s coalesced into a broad anti-American faction of holy warriors, bent on preserving the sanctity of Islamic land in the face of foreign and infidel invaders.

Now, with the Arab Spring, these militants have built enough gravitas and become enough of a social force in the Sunni Islamic world to topple the majority of the West's puppet regimes. With their recent success in Iraq, they are undertaking the next logical step in this process: the creation of a Sunni caliphate and the corollary elimination of Shia power. Their advance has brought them money, armaments, and allies, and with the addition of popular support they are carving out a new Islamic State against all the norms and predictions governing international society. All-in-all, this is proceeding much how the Americans hoped back in the 80s under Reagan: Sunni forces are coalescing to oppose Iran. It simply took a few more decades to kick off, and the situation has gotten out of control. Rather than promoting American interests, the Sunni jihadist social movement has come to define itself as anti- American.

This is one reason America got involved in the Arab Spring straight away - it wanted to steer events in its favor. It totally failed. Funding non-Shia regimes in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Kuwait, and Pakistan prior to the revolution was all well-and-good, but none of them would bring the fight to Iran. (Iraq did in the 80s, but failed). Yet, these pro-US regimes in Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan have all been toppled by Sunnis since c. 2010. The anti-US conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan continue, the conflict in Pakistan was far more democratic, and the conflict in Libya was a shitstorm from the beginning.

The case of Egypt is particularly interesting, insofar as the American-backed Muslim Brotherhood co-opted the revolution in the beginning, only to be themselves toppled by anti-US Sunni sentiment. Egypt is the most conspicuous case of Western attempts to co-opt the Arab Spring. The West never had any chance of doing so, of course, because the Spring was fundamentally an anti-West revolution, not a pro-democracy revolution. Liberal intellectuals in the Islamic world liked to portray it as democratic, and they got on all the media stages and allowed America's liberals to feel very happy ("Look! Bush was wrong, we were right!"). But in truth the whole thing was a pro-Sunni, anti-America revolt from the outset.

You might ask: Why, then, did a democratic Egyptian people succeed in Egypt? Two points: first, the second Egyptian revolution was partially democratic because Egypt is the most enlightened Islamic country. That doesn't entail that it's pro-America though. Second, the second revolution was driven by the Army, not the people, which is powerful only because it is the indirect recipient of American money. Militarism, not popular solidarity, produced the conditions for democratic Egypt.

In Libya, Ghaddafi turned from the US orbit awhile ago (c. 2005 if I remember correctly), but was still originally a US creation. The same goes for Assad, who was originally a US-backed creation to prevent Syria going an anti-Israel alliance.

Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey remain the three stable pillars of the Islamic world. Jordan is the same, to a lesser degree. Each is independent of American control. The dialogue in Mesopotamia is now one between these three powers, with a radical Sunni force carving out their own piece of the pie in the middle. Events are complicated by the broader list of new factions subordinate to no power (Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon (AKA Hezbollah), and Palestine).

So, in short, ISIS is part of a broad Islamic movement initially organized by the US for the sake of marginalizing the Shia and safeguarding Israel and America's oil interests. The situation, however, has gotten out of America's control, and age-old religious sentiment has taken over and now threatens to birth a Caliphate. Whether such a state is born depends on the actions, first, of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran; second, of Israel; and third, of Egypt.

for newbies

for new title.

someone post that global map picture, which illustrates all of the muslim population?


IMAGE ( [link to 1muslimnation.files.wordpress.com] )

No. Thanks. If every Muslim swore allegiance to the caliph, the caliphate would be huge. But that won't happen due to the Shia/Sunni divide.

Minor update to page 1:

Summary, July 1-2

Maliki opened a second front in the Iraq conflict, attacking Shia forces led by Ayatollah Hasani Sorkhi in Karbala. Sorkhi's followers have begun to act in Baghdad.

Summary, June 30

An ISIS operative published a photograph of himself in front of a station in New York, announcing that ISIS had arrived in the US.

This is the most legitimate prospect of any real, quantifiable doom in the near future. Not some immigration BS or Obummer SS fraud. All the news coverage, BS grounding of flights, all propagated to get the sheep to look the other way.

This is real doom.

Get hip.

Obv this should be perma-pinned.

Will bump till the shill mods pin this.

It is the most comprehensive list of information on the very real threat to the WORLD.

This is a prime example of what Trinity/GM and his cronies care more about.. Jihadis having anal sex moreso than a comprehensive list of what the Caliphate in Iraq/Syria is and what they are doing..

Site = Joke

Hopefully we will get a few more BS threads promoting racism and fear-mongering, its what GLP does best.

Well thanks for bumping the thread, and I agree that this is the biggest source of doom for the near future. But I don't think this site is all about racism and fear-mongering. Really great conversations take place here. If this thread isn't pinned, then so be it. Those who follow Luis' thread know about this one and I usually post my updates there. This is just a convenient place for all my updates.

for WWIII.

I would posit that those suggesting Islamic State is the creation of, or under the control of, any western powers are sadly mistaken.

The west created the power vaccum which allowed it to flourish. And the west left it an abundance of weapons.

But this is out of our hands, not our deal.

Only hubris and ignorance cause the west to think that we could cause, control, or bring to conclussion such an entity.

He said american interest.
America is a continent, mostly run by crooks I as a north american have no interest in.

I do have a interest in the division among man.

Totally agree with you. Even if Western powers gave help, in some form, to ISIS in its early stages, it has become an independent player on the international stage.

Best thread ever! Thanks.