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Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!

 
hatch battener
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01/27/2014 03:38 AM
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Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
The undeniable surge in Meteor sightings over the past year, is part of a worrying and ever increasing trend that continues unabated into 2014. A trend that could signal a certain sign of our indubitable doom. This thread will attempt to identify some of those trends, in large part with numbers provided on the American Meteor Society’s website.

Where to begin?…

It was a fine day in Chelyabinsk Russia less than a year ago, when out of the sheer blue sky came the most damaging meteor strike in recorded human history, by number of injuries -





From EL James to JK Rowling, from Shakespeare to Chaucer, from Plato to Homer and all writers in between, never in recorded human history has a meteor caused that many injuries. Recorded human history spans a period of about 5000 years., and there’s nothing like that on record. On February 15th, 2013 - 7,200 buildings damaged, 1,500 people injured -



Not long after that on March 23rd, 2013 a huge meteor event occurred in the NE US, which became the biggest event on record for the AMS at that time, It received 1238 reports, nearly 4 times the number of reports of the previous record holder, an event in April 2010 which had 324 reports.

So two huge meteorite events within weeks of each other, Many people at the time drew a connection, is something going on?

Well known astrophysicist and media personality Neil Degrasse claimed no connection between the two events, that it was simply a matter that after the Russian meteor, “more people were looking up>“ I’ll get back to that bit of dubious wisdom later...
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hatch battener (OP)
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01/27/2014 03:39 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
So 2013 was off to a smashing start, with double barreled historic events in both the US and Russia.

But April 2013 was remarkably quiet, not for long though.

May 2013 would shatter all records at that time.

The American Meteor Society classifies the size of a meteor event based on the number of reports. An event with over 6 reports is a “significant event”, over 20 reports a “large event”, over 100 reports a “huge event”.

May 2013 had 14 large meteor events, prior to 2013 no month had more than 7 large meteor events.

June 2013 was remarkably quiet. In April and June combined there was only 5 large meteor events. In April, June, July and August combined there was 12 large events, less than the month of May with 14. So May 2013 was certainly busy.

Things picked up again in September, with a vengeance, and it has not let up .

Of particular note is the astounding period of September 26-28, 2013. In a just over 48 hours, there were 3 huge events which became the 1st, 3rd and 4th biggest events on record at the AMS at that time, with the event in March bumped to the number two spot.. There had never been 2 huge meteor events in one week before, then there was 3 enormous ones in a little over 48 hours. In the 3 day period from Sep 26-28th, the AMS logged 3548 fireball reports, an average of 1182 per day, For 2013 excluding Sep 26-28th, there was an average of 41 per day. 28 times the number of reports on Sep 26-28th, than the rest of 2013, and 2013 had over twice as many reports as any previous year. Something clearly big happened in that 3 day period.

Through the rest of 2013, the upward trend continued. Until Dec 26th 2013 when the number one spot would fall again, for the third time that year, with an event centered in Iowa with 1497 reports. Two days later on December 28th anther huge event centered in Minnesota. Again two huge events within two days of each other, unprecedented before 2013.

One way that illustrates how big 2013 was is to look at the top 5 meteor events for a period of time-

Top 5 meteor events prior to 2013-

1 - 4/14/10 - 324 reports
2 - 2/14/11 - 299 reports
3 - 10/17/12 - 292 reports
4 - 12/7/12 - 193 reports
5 - 3/13/12 - 181 reports

Top 5 meteor events at the end of 2013-

1 - 12/26/13 - 1497 reports
2 - 9/27/13 - 1422 reports
3 - 3/22/13 - 1238 reports
4 - 9/28/13 - 867 reports
5 - 9/26/13 - 790 reports

The 5th biggest event now is twice as big as biggest meteor event was a year ago.

The 6th biggest event now just happened on January 12th, 2014.

The top 7 meteor events have happened within the past year, 6 of the top 7 within the past 5 months.
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hatch battener (OP)
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01/27/2014 03:40 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
So general fireball reports and large meteor events are on the rise There has also been a dramatic rise in rare meteor events as well, those which have an accompanying sound, which is an indication of a meteor penetrating more deeply into the atmosphere.

And a rise in rare meteor events visible in daylight, since August 15th. 2013 there has been 5 significant meteor events visible in daylight, about 1 per month. In the 103 months previous to August 15th, 2013, there was a significant daylight meteor event about every 9 months.

When looking into these daylight meteors, also of note is that period of 9/26-28/2013, there was the 3 huge meteor events, 3 large events, and 6 significant events. One of those 6 significant events was a daylight meteor! Even though less than 2% of significant meteor events are daylight events, and there has only been 16 in AMS records. Shows again how remarkable that 3 day period was.

Also of interest, the biggest meteor event in daylight in AMS records was an event on the East Coast on February 14th, 2011. It has the 9th most number of reports in AMS history. Curious how the biggest daylight meteor event in AMS history, happened nearly two years to the hour from the time of the biggest and most damaging meteor in recorded human history in Russia on February 15th, 2013. Two of the biggest daylight meteor events on record happened two years apart, within 9 hours of each other UT time.

There were an average of 18 fireball reports per day in 2012. There was an average of 50 fireball reports per day in 2013.

The upward trend continues. From January 1st-26th/2013 there was 816 fireball reports to the AMS. From January 1st-26th/2014 there were 1152 fireball reports, year to date an increase of 41% from the record smashing 2013.
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hatch battener (OP)
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01/27/2014 03:41 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
What does it mean going forward?

There is no question that there has been a tremendous increase in huge meteor events over the past year, including the most damaging in recorded human history among others. And that the increasing trend continues into 2014.

Two big questions for 2014 is will there be any other big events around the period of February 14-15th, as there has been in the past. Or around that period of September 26-28th which was so remarkable in 2013. Like with the recurring meteor showers, is there something about that region of space, when we pass through it on those dates, the Earth could expect something to happen again?

When you put the Russian meteor in the context of the tremendous increase in fireball reports over the past year, it is not going to far out on a limb to make the bold GLP prediction, that this trend will inexorably continue,. And the possibility of a Russian style mass casualty meteor event is distinct, if not inevitable.

And there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it!

Until all civilization is destroyed!

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Comperio

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01/27/2014 07:43 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
Excellent work OP.
"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. Never lose a holy curiosity." "Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance."
Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/27/2014 08:17 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
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Vesper33
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01/27/2014 04:56 PM

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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
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Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
hatch battener
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01/29/2014 12:12 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
Another major event tonight, seen over a widespread area from Indiana to Ohio to Pennysylvania and Kentucky, that's alot of ground! Event number 312 of 2014, 39 reports confirmed at this time to the AMS -

[link to www.amsmeteors.org]

With about 40 pending at this time-

[link to www.amsmeteors.org]

With that many reports in about 3 hours it's certainly going to be classified as a "huge" event. (over 100 reports to the AMS)

That would be the 3rd "huge" meteor event of January 2014.

3 or more huge events in one month has only happened 3 times before, all in the past 8 months, in May (3), September (4), and October (3) of 2013. This would only be the 4th time.

Even more astounding!-

Huge meteor recorded at the AMS-

2013 - 16

[link to www.amsmeteors.org]

2012 - 6

[link to www.amsmeteors.org]

No previous year from 2005-2011 had more than more than 2 huge meteor events!

We have had more huge meteor in January 2014 than in any year prior to 2012!

Looking at the other 2 months which had 3 huge meteor events, January 2014 seems certain to become bigger than those. So this month will be the 2nd biggest month on record for huge meteor events to Septermber 2013.

And there's still 3 days to go!
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hatch battener
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01/29/2014 12:16 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!

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Anonymous Coward
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01/29/2014 05:03 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
you are right.

one thing you forgot to mention with Chelyabinsk was a huge Near Earth Asteroid 2012 DA 14, was also passing Earth that day.

And were (and continue to be) a shit ton more meteor events following the russian meteor.

In particular Sept 2014 was the busiest month on record for big fireball events. there were almost 30 reported!
Ostria1

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01/31/2014 08:22 AM

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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
thank you OP, nice work!

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Ostria
hatch battener
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02/25/2014 03:16 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
After a very quiet start to February, another outburst of meteor sightings is underway!

Any event with over 100 reports to the AMS is classified as a huge event. An event just a few hours ago in the NE US already has 90 reports pending to the AMS, this will certainly become the first huge event in weeks when all the pending reports are in-

[link to www.amsmeteors.org]

There has also been two other "large" events in the past 2 days, one on the 23rd centered around Minnesota, and one on the 24th also in the NE US.

Only 3 other times before has 3 large events happened within 3 days.

Once was in March of last year, which happened to usher in the largest meteor event ever at that time on March 23rd, 4 times bigger than anything seen in years.

The second time was on Septemper 22nd, when there was an unprecedented 3 large events in one day. This began the explosion of meteor reports in the last week of September 2013, which led up to another 3 large events in one day on Sep. 28th, which included that largest and 3rd largest event ever at that time.

So we are definitely in another cluster of meteor sightings. And the pattern is certainly showing a natural variation.

Just to show how quiet the start of February has been, from Feb. 1st to Feb. 21st, the AMS received 305 fireball reports, very quiet.-

[link to www.amsmeteors.org]

In the last 3 complete days from Feb. 22-24, the AMS has received 307 reports, with still 20 pending-

[link to www.amsmeteors.org]

There has been more reports in the past 3 days, than in the first 3 weeks of February combined!

Were 7 times more people "looking up" in the past 3 days, or 7 times more people on the internet than earlier in the month? I got news for ya, that's not it.

Since the AMS uses UT time, technically tonight's huge event is on Feb 25, so there is already about 90 reports in the first 3 hours of today. So the trend of the past 3 days continues into the 25th.

Keep in mind that in the 3 other periods when there were 3 large events within 3 days, like this period we are in now, in 2 of those 3 times, it ushered in the largest event ever at that time!

Given the latest uptick, could something even bigger be on the way, imminently???

Time will tell...


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Anonymous Coward
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02/25/2014 07:18 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
'Biggest observed meteorite impact' hits Moon

Scientists say they have observed a record-breaking impact on the Moon. Spanish astronomers spotted a meteorite with a mass of about half a tonne crashing into the lunar surface last September.

agreed that this is one of the strangest things happening lately, at a time of increasing strangeness.
hatch battener
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02/28/2014 02:08 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
Keep in mind that in the 3 other periods when there were 3 large events within 3 days, like this period we are in now, in 2 of those 3 times, it ushered in the largest event ever at that time!

Given the latest uptick, could something even bigger be on the way, imminently???

Time will tell...
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 Quoting: hatch battener 54837362

Just to update my own post of a couple days ago, there has been another huge meteor event!

Last night on February 27th, centered in the Virginia, Maryland area.

There has now been two huge events within 2 days of each other, that has only happened twice before, On September 26-28th and December 26-28th of 2013.

In both of those cases, the period included what would become the largest meteor event ever at that time.

Also of note is peculiarity of those record breaking meteor events, the ones that end up toppling the number one spot. That has happened 3 times in the past year.

In each of those times, the record breaker happened as part of a cluster of large to huge meteor events. A cluster like we are in now with 4 in the past 5 days.

Some people maintain that increased use of the internet or awareness of the AMS site accounts for the increase in large meteor events, that it would be all part of an increasing pattern do to that reason.

But a look at the big record breakers tells a different story. An event in April 2010 held the #1 spot for nearly 3 years with 324 reports, until an event in March of 2013 with 1238 reports, nearly four as big!

Did people kinda slack off on the internet for 3 years, or stop looking up?

Or did something truly remarkable happen?

Time will tell...


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Just a normal Coward!!
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02/28/2014 02:31 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
Scared Straight!!

Scared Straight is a juvenile corrections program that focuses on scaring a child onto a better path by showing them things they will encounter on their current path...

___

This is used on kids.

God apparently has his own scared straight programs.

Are we even gonna consider wearing sack-cloth, fasting, repenting, and restoring credit to him??

Beyond Scared Straight: Comb My Chest Hair
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeR_2fiCnhs
Just a normal Coward!!
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02/28/2014 02:33 AM
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Re: Tremendous Rise In Meteor Sightings 2013-2014 - By The Numbers - Certain Sign Of Our Indubitable Doom!!
Adding:

Humans HAVE ruined the Earth so BAD, the only recourse may be Baptism by Fire...

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