A Tropical Storm Could Form In The Gulf Of Mexico This Weekend

We continue to closely monitor surface and satellite observations over the northwest Caribbean. Surface data Friday night shows a possible low pressure center near 17 north and 86 west. Surface pressures are down to at least 1005 millibars northeast of the center with winds of 20-25 mph. becoming better organized. The National Hurricane Center has tasked an air plane to investigate this area tomorrow. However, given the way pressures are continuing to fall, we will have a tropical depression in the next 24 hours and we could have the first tropical storm of the season develop by the second half of the weekend. The first name on the list is Alberto. So, residence and visitors to the Yucatan, Belize, western Cuba and islands of the northwest Caribbean should keep a close watch on this system. Water temperatures are very warm in this area and a developing system could intensify very quickly. Our current thinking is that this system will track north or northwest and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow night and Sunday morning. As stated the past couple of days if this system heads north it will encounter shear which will make the tops of the thunderstorms around the system flow off to the northeast. Shear will cause the system to become tilted northeast to southwest and that will limit how strong it can get. In fact if the shear is strong enough it could cause the system to weaken once it moves well north of the Yucatan later Sunday and Sunday night. Computer models show a wide range in solutions as far as movement. But a general consensus takes the system north then northeast toward the northeast Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. How strong it is at that point is tough to say. But we could be dealing with a strong tropical storm heading toward western or northwest Florida on Monday. Water temperatures are cooler off the coast of western and northwest Florida. Those cooler waters combined with the stronger winds aloft could cause the whole system to become elongated causing it to weaken. But this is mostly speculation and there is a lot of uncertainty about this system. So, residents of the northern and eastern Gulf should also monitor the progress of this system. Even if the system weakens it will bring rainfall to Florida by Monday and over parts of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday of next week.

[link to hurricane.accuweather.com]