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Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316

 
The Nihilist (OP)

User ID: 55462400
Canada
04/17/2014 07:41 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
next country????


Threat of Ebola: Panic about the suspect Chu Treichville


can't copy/paste for some reason. Anyways the dude is from Burkina Faso.


The article is scary, with the burning image. Wish I could paste it here, oh well you can always click through...


[link to translate.googleusercontent.com]


wow, just reading that article, they burn his clothes/bed/stools.....wtf they burn the mans poopoo.

Last Edited by The Nihilist on 04/17/2014 07:45 PM
concr
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04/17/2014 09:00 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Just did an internet search for Ebola in Italy. There are quite a few stories in Pisa, Italy regarding Ebola scare. They have 40 people in Pisa that are being isolated. These individuals came from Ebola stricken areas. But no concern of outbreak. They have fever and conjunctivitis,(Ebola symptoms), but they just need rest and relaxation. They are doing blood labs and other tests. Nothing to see here folks. WTF?
BattlesightZero
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04/17/2014 09:41 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
...


I guess we can add Italy to the list soon.
 Quoting: The Nihilist


I'm calling it DEFCON-2 at this point. Please be ready to make a fast pace response, as this will escalate quickly as they lose media containment. Based upon my last modeling run (2 nights ago) things are not looking good.

Without updated data on numbers and locations of cases, there really isn't much more accuracy or detail I can squeeze out of my limited tool set. I wasn't going to release this set of results because they just look too provocative, but now I don't feel like I have a choice.

I will caveat this just as I have previous posts - I am not a professional epidemiologist or public health professional, and I make no claim to any such title or certification. These numbers are the output of a very crude model which I composed myself, based upon my self-study of the epidemiology of past hemorrhagic fevers in west Africa, with tweaks and adjustments of my own personal composition (which constitute new and unique work) to accommodate an urban environment, and to extrapolate for certain other anticipated factors.

These posted probabilities are in no way authoritative, and should be considered a "best guess" only.

Probabilities of unchecked infection at this point, based upon a method of travel times and frequencies of airline flights to various cities, also including certain assumed volumes of "mixed maritime" traffic between north Africa and southern Europe -

63% in Italy within 8 days
44% in Spain within 15 days
77% in Riyadh/Saudi within 21 days
40% in Libya within 25 days
29% in the US within 28 days
37% in Egypt within 33 days

By the time we get to 35 days, it can be in 25 countries on 4 continents.

35 days after that, nearly every place on the globe within 1000 miles of a commercial airport is fair game.


WE HAVE BEEN WARNED

If I suddenly stop posting after this...it's NOT because I suddenly decided to take a vacation and get away from it all.

May God bless you and keep you all.
 Quoting: BattlesightZero


Well... time to stop the prep rotation and start topping everything off and pick up some of those nice to have things. Fill up the gas cans, double check the bug out preps, pick up some oil for the Generator just in case... It's a good time for every prepper goes through their plans and things to make sure nothing was used or missing.

It's not a bug out or freak out time. But this is a good sign and as good time as any to get what ever your preps are in order and insure your fam knows the plan.

It's the night before your cross country road trip. Would you wait until tomorrow morning to pack, fuel up, get an oil change, or map out your route?

You know what to do.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56406004


Also note that for those that haven't done a lot of prepping you might have a week to get things in order. It's not how long until the bug gets to america or takes hold in your country. It's how long can they keep the media lid on it. Once the social media sites start flooding the panic will sit in. Thats when you will have a hard time prepping cuz every joe dirt out there will be trying to do just what your doing.
 Quoting: Tharamis


Let me restate that first sentence -

YOU MIGHT HAVE AS LONG AS ONE WEEK TO GET YOU SH*T IN ORDER, FOLKS. Or, it might break tomorrow morning and the stores will be picked over before you get out of work. Honestly, there's no way to gauge when it will become a fear-driven frenzy... but you should reasonably expect that it will.

I will tell you in all honesty that my family took a trip to Costco this afternoon to top off our supplies and plug holes. Then I made a trip to the fuel company and topped off every container I have with fresh fuel (gasoline and some kerosene). And we called for a delivery to top off the propane tank, too.

I can't promise you that the worst will happen. But I can assure you that I spent over a thousand dollars today because I believe that the present combination of scenarios absolutely will yield a worst-case situation in the near future, and I mean to be prepared when it does...

Keep the Faith
Be Prepared
Stay Safe

LT
BattlesightZero

YOU, and only YOU are responsible for maintaining the balance of power between you and the rest of the semi-sentient beings in this world. You cannot disclaim or delegate that responsibility; it is a function of being a living, breathing "adult" in this world. If you can't manage yourself on those terms, someone else *will* manage you on their terms. Your terms are irrelevant. Buy a rifle; prepare to defend yourself. If you don't, what happens is *your* fault. Period.
The Nihilist (OP)

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04/17/2014 10:13 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
numbers go up again tonight!!!!


FluTrackers.com ‏@FluTrackers 46m

#Guinea - Ebola: 202 suspected/confirmed cases, 125 deaths, as of April 17, 2014 [link to www.flutrackers.com] … @RonanKelly13
pray_Italy

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Italy
04/17/2014 10:14 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Just did an internet search for Ebola in Italy. There are quite a few stories in Pisa, Italy regarding Ebola scare. They have 40 people in Pisa that are being isolated. These individuals came from Ebola stricken areas. But no concern of outbreak. They have fever and conjunctivitis,(Ebola symptoms), but they just need rest and relaxation. They are doing blood labs and other tests. Nothing to see here folks. WTF?
 Quoting: concr 20050270


I stated this on page 112:

Ebola, Ministry of Health:'' No alarm, there are cases in Sicily or Lampedusa''

Last updated: April 17, at 17:06
Rome - (Adnkronos) - The virus has not been found among migrants arrived on the Italian coast. From the department of the Tiber Ripa denied rumors these days.

50% rule observed, original article (in Italian) here:

[link to www.adnkronos.com]


Italian Authorities claim the report of the 40 cases in Pisa is a hoax..... which they would do obviously do too in case it were true..... hiding
 Quoting: pray_Italy



Be careful about these 40 people in Italy as for the time being there are NO FURTHER information about this.

The "source" claiming 40 people were found showing symptoms is deemed to be a hoax website with the Italian Authorities currently denying everything... so we have to dig deeper to get to REAL info ATM
BattlesightZero
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04/17/2014 10:17 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
numbers go up again tonight!!!!


FluTrackers.com ‏@FluTrackers 46m

#Guinea - Ebola: 202 suspected/confirmed cases, 125 deaths, as of April 17, 2014 [link to www.flutrackers.com] … @RonanKelly13
 Quoting: The Nihilist


Damn, they will not give the one important piece of information - how many cases presently active, or active in the last 7 days?

This total count garbage is worthless, except for the sensationalism it creates.

An outbreak is best defined by the number of active cases it has at any given time in it cycle of progression...
BattlesightZero

YOU, and only YOU are responsible for maintaining the balance of power between you and the rest of the semi-sentient beings in this world. You cannot disclaim or delegate that responsibility; it is a function of being a living, breathing "adult" in this world. If you can't manage yourself on those terms, someone else *will* manage you on their terms. Your terms are irrelevant. Buy a rifle; prepare to defend yourself. If you don't, what happens is *your* fault. Period.
The Nihilist (OP)

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04/17/2014 10:18 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Just did an internet search for Ebola in Italy. There are quite a few stories in Pisa, Italy regarding Ebola scare. They have 40 people in Pisa that are being isolated. These individuals came from Ebola stricken areas. But no concern of outbreak. They have fever and conjunctivitis,(Ebola symptoms), but they just need rest and relaxation. They are doing blood labs and other tests. Nothing to see here folks. WTF?
 Quoting: concr 20050270


I stated this on page 112:

Ebola, Ministry of Health:'' No alarm, there are cases in Sicily or Lampedusa''

Last updated: April 17, at 17:06
Rome - (Adnkronos) - The virus has not been found among migrants arrived on the Italian coast. From the department of the Tiber Ripa denied rumors these days.

50% rule observed, original article (in Italian) here:

[link to www.adnkronos.com]


Italian Authorities claim the report of the 40 cases in Pisa is a hoax..... which they would do obviously do too in case it were true..... hiding
 Quoting: pray_Italy



Be careful about these 40 people in Italy as for the time being there are NO FURTHER information about this.

The "source" claiming 40 people were found showing symptoms is deemed to be a hoax website with the Italian Authorities currently denying everything... so we have to dig deeper to get to REAL info ATM
 Quoting: pray_Italy


do not worry, we will give Italy the benefit of doubt...not on the list tonight! hf
BattlesightZero
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04/17/2014 10:25 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Just did an internet search for Ebola in Italy. There are quite a few stories in Pisa, Italy regarding Ebola scare. They have 40 people in Pisa that are being isolated. These individuals came from Ebola stricken areas. But no concern of outbreak. They have fever and conjunctivitis,(Ebola symptoms), but they just need rest and relaxation. They are doing blood labs and other tests. Nothing to see here folks. WTF?
 Quoting: concr 20050270


I stated this on page 112:

Ebola, Ministry of Health:'' No alarm, there are cases in Sicily or Lampedusa''

Last updated: April 17, at 17:06
Rome - (Adnkronos) - The virus has not been found among migrants arrived on the Italian coast. From the department of the Tiber Ripa denied rumors these days.

50% rule observed, original article (in Italian) here:

[link to www.adnkronos.com]


Italian Authorities claim the report of the 40 cases in Pisa is a hoax..... which they would do obviously do too in case it were true..... hiding
 Quoting: pray_Italy



Be careful about these 40 people in Italy as for the time being there are NO FURTHER information about this.

The "source" claiming 40 people were found showing symptoms is deemed to be a hoax website with the Italian Authorities currently denying everything... so we have to dig deeper to get to REAL info ATM
 Quoting: pray_Italy


do not worry, we will give Italy the benefit of doubt...not on the list tonight! hf
 Quoting: The Nihilist


Yeah, but all the black muslim "refugees" headed towards Britain, the Netherlands, and Sweden cross from Tunisia into Italy or Morocco into Spain. Therefore any outbreak in Morocco or Tunisia is a real and immediate threat to Europe as a whole... and I'm reasonably sure that both of those countries are already harboring cases.
BattlesightZero

YOU, and only YOU are responsible for maintaining the balance of power between you and the rest of the semi-sentient beings in this world. You cannot disclaim or delegate that responsibility; it is a function of being a living, breathing "adult" in this world. If you can't manage yourself on those terms, someone else *will* manage you on their terms. Your terms are irrelevant. Buy a rifle; prepare to defend yourself. If you don't, what happens is *your* fault. Period.
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04/17/2014 10:25 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Ebola, Ministry of Health:'' No alarm, there are cases in Sicily or Lampedusa''

Last updated: April 17, at 17:06
Rome - (Adnkronos)
 Quoting: pray_Italy


I guess we can add Italy to the list soon.
 Quoting: The Nihilist


I'm calling it DEFCON-2 at this point. Please be ready to make a fast pace response, as this will escalate quickly as they lose media containment. Based upon my last modeling run (2 nights ago) things are not looking good.

Without updated data on numbers and locations of cases, there really isn't much more accuracy or detail I can squeeze out of my limited tool set. I wasn't going to release this set of results because they just look too provocative, but now I don't feel like I have a choice.

I will caveat this just as I have previous posts - I am not a professional epidemiologist or public health professional, and I make no claim to any such title or certification. These numbers are the output of a very crude model which I composed myself, based upon my self-study of the epidemiology of past hemorrhagic fevers in west Africa, with tweaks and adjustments of my own personal composition (which constitute new and unique work) to accommodate an urban environment, and to extrapolate for certain other anticipated factors.

These posted probabilities are in no way authoritative, and should be considered a "best guess" only.

Probabilities of unchecked infection at this point, based upon a method of travel times and frequencies of airline flights to various cities, also including certain assumed volumes of "mixed maritime" traffic between north Africa and southern Europe -

63% in Italy within 8 days
44% in Spain within 15 days
77% in Riyadh/Saudi within 21 days
40% in Libya within 25 days
29% in the US within 28 days
37% in Egypt within 33 days

By the time we get to 35 days, it can be in 25 countries on 4 continents.

35 days after that, nearly every place on the globe within 1000 miles of a commercial airport is fair game.


WE HAVE BEEN WARNED

If I suddenly stop posting after this...it's NOT because I suddenly decided to take a vacation and get away from it all.

May God bless you and keep you all.
 Quoting: BattlesightZero


In your model, is there a factor taking into account better hygiene outside Africa?

In other words, the transmissivity of the virus should be lower in the developed world.
Zombie Daddy in a Box
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04/17/2014 10:26 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
In your model, is there a factor taking into account better hygiene outside Africa?

In other words, the transmissivity of the virus should be lower in the developed world

Retweeted by Ian M Mackay, PhD


Helen Branswell ‏@HelenBranswell · 8h
Is this possible? Looks like the health-care work in the UAE who died of #MERS last week infected 14 others. Is that so, @WHO @HaertlG


so much for hygiene when a health work infects 14 people
with MERS.

Last Edited by Zombie Daddy in a Box on 04/17/2014 10:30 PM
It Is All Bull Shit I Tell You...

The New Leaders that lead us from SLAVERY to FREEDOM, Just end up becoming our NEW SLAVE MASTERS.

"STFU you brain dead fucker"-Desert Fox-MOD.
The Nihilist (OP)

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04/17/2014 10:33 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Just did an internet search for Ebola in Italy. There are quite a few stories in Pisa, Italy regarding Ebola scare. They have 40 people in Pisa that are being isolated. These individuals came from Ebola stricken areas. But no concern of outbreak. They have fever and conjunctivitis,(Ebola symptoms), but they just need rest and relaxation. They are doing blood labs and other tests. Nothing to see here folks. WTF?
 Quoting: concr 20050270


I stated this on page 112:

Ebola, Ministry of Health:'' No alarm, there are cases in Sicily or Lampedusa''

Last updated: April 17, at 17:06
Rome - (Adnkronos) - The virus has not been found among migrants arrived on the Italian coast. From the department of the Tiber Ripa denied rumors these days.

50% rule observed, original article (in Italian) here:

[link to www.adnkronos.com]


Italian Authorities claim the report of the 40 cases in Pisa is a hoax..... which they would do obviously do too in case it were true..... hiding
 Quoting: pray_Italy



Be careful about these 40 people in Italy as for the time being there are NO FURTHER information about this.

The "source" claiming 40 people were found showing symptoms is deemed to be a hoax website with the Italian Authorities currently denying everything... so we have to dig deeper to get to REAL info ATM
 Quoting: pray_Italy


do not worry, we will give Italy the benefit of doubt...not on the list tonight! hf
 Quoting: The Nihilist


Yeah, but all the black muslim "refugees" headed towards Britain, the Netherlands, and Sweden cross from Tunisia into Italy or Morocco into Spain. Therefore any outbreak in Morocco or Tunisia is a real and immediate threat to Europe as a whole... and I'm reasonably sure that both of those countries are already harboring cases.
 Quoting: BattlesightZero


I'm 100% with you. I just don't want to argue with an Italian tonight. Oh, and MERS is getting mental.



The government's efforts to shut down media reports on MERS have evidently not lasted long. Via Arab News: Concern over rising MERS. The full report:


Dr. Mohammed Ali, an internist at Al-Abeer Medical Group, advised people to keep away from crowded areas and undergo medical tests in case of high fever and coughing.

“It is advisable to use masks,” he told Arab News adding that people should observe hygiene and maintain cleanliness to avoid the virus.


wtf

[link to crofsblogs.typepad.com]
Zombie Daddy in a Box
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04/17/2014 10:39 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Corona Virinae ‏@Coronavirinae · Apr 16
#Coronavirus news: Philippines reports first case of MERS coronavirus



Retweeted by Ian M Mackay, PhD


FluTrackers.com ‏@FluTrackers · 8m
#UAE Paramedics #Coronavirus Cluster- Total after today's @WHO update =16, incl. 1 case exported to Philippines [link to www.flutrackers.com] … #MERS

Last Edited by Zombie Daddy in a Box on 04/17/2014 10:41 PM
It Is All Bull Shit I Tell You...

The New Leaders that lead us from SLAVERY to FREEDOM, Just end up becoming our NEW SLAVE MASTERS.

"STFU you brain dead fucker"-Desert Fox-MOD.
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2014 10:41 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Random - but I'm watching Scandal. *Spoiler Alert*

Story line has someone dying from a meningitis infection traced to a strain that is kept under lock and key in Ft. De.tric(sp?), a vial had gone missing.

Good grief.
BattlesightZero
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04/17/2014 10:41 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
In your model, is there a factor taking into account better hygiene outside Africa?

In other words, the transmissivity of the virus should be lower in the developed world.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 51906308


Yes, I established a baseline set of socio-economic statuses for western africa, and assumed that the socio-economic standards would be 1 quintile higher (on average) in the US and southern Europe, and 1.5 quintiles higher than baseline in northern Europe.

But the fact is that, as this "status" goes up, hygiene isn't the only factor which receives a boost - the number of typical "encounters" with other people per day increases, as does the probability that the person will get on a plane or train and travel to another city, whether for business or holiday.

Apologies, but the "social status improves hygiene and therefore reduces transmission rate" assumption is a wash. (pardon the pun).

It does change transmission *patterns*, though - Wealthier people tend to send the infection further afield each time they transmit it, whereas the poorest tend to transmit to their own families and neighbors in more than 60% of instances.

Fact is, from what I've read "the poor" don't begin to have any impact upon the geographic distribution of cases, until they start to flee the epidemic en mass.

Makes sense?

Last Edited by BattlesightZero on 04/17/2014 10:44 PM
BattlesightZero

YOU, and only YOU are responsible for maintaining the balance of power between you and the rest of the semi-sentient beings in this world. You cannot disclaim or delegate that responsibility; it is a function of being a living, breathing "adult" in this world. If you can't manage yourself on those terms, someone else *will* manage you on their terms. Your terms are irrelevant. Buy a rifle; prepare to defend yourself. If you don't, what happens is *your* fault. Period.
Bambi2U
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04/17/2014 10:44 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Ebola, Ministry of Health:'' No alarm, there are cases in Sicily or Lampedusa''

Last updated: April 17, at 17:06
Rome - (Adnkronos) - The virus has not been found among migrants arrived on the Italian coast. From the department of the Tiber Ripa denied rumors these days.

50% rule observed, original article (in Italian) here:

[link to www.adnkronos.com]


Italian Authorities claim the report of the 40 cases in Pisa is a hoax..... which they would do obviously do too in case it were true..... hiding
 Quoting: pray_Italy


I guess we can add Italy to the list soon.
 Quoting: The Nihilist


I'm calling it DEFCON-2 at this point. Please be ready to make a fast pace response, as this will escalate quickly as they lose media containment. Based upon my last modeling run (2 nights ago) things are not looking good.

Without updated data on numbers and locations of cases, there really isn't much more accuracy or detail I can squeeze out of my limited tool set. I wasn't going to release this set of results because they just look too provocative, but now I don't feel like I have a choice.

I will caveat this just as I have previous posts - I am not a professional epidemiologist or public health professional, and I make no claim to any such title or certification. These numbers are the output of a very crude model which I composed myself, based upon my self-study of the epidemiology of past hemorrhagic fevers in west Africa, with tweaks and adjustments of my own personal composition (which constitute new and unique work) to accommodate an urban environment, and to extrapolate for certain other anticipated factors.

These posted probabilities are in no way authoritative, and should be considered a "best guess" only.

Probabilities of unchecked infection at this point, based upon a method of travel times and frequencies of airline flights to various cities, also including certain assumed volumes of "mixed maritime" traffic between north Africa and southern Europe -

63% in Italy within 8 days
44% in Spain within 15 days
77% in Riyadh/Saudi within 21 days
40% in Libya within 25 days
29% in the US within 28 days
37% in Egypt within 33 days

By the time we get to 35 days, it can be in 25 countries on 4 continents.

35 days after that, nearly every place on the globe within 1000 miles of a commercial airport is fair game.


WE HAVE BEEN WARNED

If I suddenly stop posting after this...it's NOT because I suddenly decided to take a vacation and get away from it all.

May God bless you and keep you all.
 Quoting: BattlesightZero


Thank you for trying at least. God Bless you!
"We are locked in a battle. This is not a friendly, gentleman's discussion. It is a life and death conflict between the spiritual hosts of wickedness and those who claim the name of Jesus Christ."

"The Saints are Sinners that keep on trying"


“Nobody's perfect. We're all just one step up from the beasts and one step down from the angels.”

Rom 8:38-39: For I am convinced that neither death nor life, neither angels nor demons, neither the present nor the future, nor any powers,neither height nor depth, nor anything else in all creation, will be able to separate us from the love of God that is in Christ Jesus our Lord.

________________________________
Evangelist Anita Fuentes Website: [link to www.emoaf.org]

Rebels of Liberty
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The Nihilist (OP)

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Canada
04/17/2014 10:48 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
Ebola, Ministry of Health:'' No alarm, there are cases in Sicily or Lampedusa''

Last updated: April 17, at 17:06
Rome - (Adnkronos) - The virus has not been found among migrants arrived on the Italian coast. From the department of the Tiber Ripa denied rumors these days.

50% rule observed, original article (in Italian) here:

[link to www.adnkronos.com]


Italian Authorities claim the report of the 40 cases in Pisa is a hoax..... which they would do obviously do too in case it were true..... hiding
 Quoting: pray_Italy


I guess we can add Italy to the list soon.
 Quoting: The Nihilist


I'm calling it DEFCON-2 at this point. Please be ready to make a fast pace response, as this will escalate quickly as they lose media containment. Based upon my last modeling run (2 nights ago) things are not looking good.

Without updated data on numbers and locations of cases, there really isn't much more accuracy or detail I can squeeze out of my limited tool set. I wasn't going to release this set of results because they just look too provocative, but now I don't feel like I have a choice.

I will caveat this just as I have previous posts - I am not a professional epidemiologist or public health professional, and I make no claim to any such title or certification. These numbers are the output of a very crude model which I composed myself, based upon my self-study of the epidemiology of past hemorrhagic fevers in west Africa, with tweaks and adjustments of my own personal composition (which constitute new and unique work) to accommodate an urban environment, and to extrapolate for certain other anticipated factors.

These posted probabilities are in no way authoritative, and should be considered a "best guess" only.

Probabilities of unchecked infection at this point, based upon a method of travel times and frequencies of airline flights to various cities, also including certain assumed volumes of "mixed maritime" traffic between north Africa and southern Europe -

63% in Italy within 8 days
44% in Spain within 15 days
77% in Riyadh/Saudi within 21 days
40% in Libya within 25 days
29% in the US within 28 days
37% in Egypt within 33 days

By the time we get to 35 days, it can be in 25 countries on 4 continents.

35 days after that, nearly every place on the globe within 1000 miles of a commercial airport is fair game.


WE HAVE BEEN WARNED

If I suddenly stop posting after this...it's NOT because I suddenly decided to take a vacation and get away from it all.

May God bless you and keep you all.
 Quoting: BattlesightZero


Thank you for trying at least. God Bless you!
 Quoting: Bambi2U


me too. hf
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2014 10:49 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
West African Ebola outbreak caused by new strain of disease: study

Can't post the link due to Reuters Ban. But you can google to get it.

"Using analysis of blood samples from infected patients, however, researchers determined that while the Guinean form of the Ebola virus (EBOV) showed a 97 percent similarity to the Zaire strain, the disease was not introduced from Central Africa."

"A senior health ministry official told Reuters on Thursday the government planned to stop publicly releasing the death toll to avoid causing unnecessary panic."
 Quoting: Tharamis


Wow, so now we have to rely on social media. Crazy overall, I mean they are not even hiding the fact that they are hiding the facts----lolz
 Quoting: The Nihilist



[link to www.afro.who.int]

Unless the WHO is complicit (and who knows, they may be - pun intended) then Guinea outbreak numbers will continue to be reported on and updated at this website. If WHO stops updating then assume the very worst is occurring.

My intuition, nothing more, leads me to worry about spread to China and Japan, and we won't know about it until after the fat lady has sung.
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04/17/2014 10:50 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
are there any facts here, or more order of nine angels role playing doom for panties gear?
The Nihilist (OP)

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04/17/2014 10:53 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
In your model, is there a factor taking into account better hygiene outside Africa?

In other words, the transmissivity of the virus should be lower in the developed world.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 51906308


Yes, I established a baseline set of socio-economic statuses for western africa, and assumed that the socio-economic standards would be 1 quintile higher (on average) in the US and southern Europe, and 1.5 quintiles higher than baseline in northern Europe.

But the fact is that, as this "status" goes up, hygiene isn't the only factor which receives a boost - the number of typical "encounters" with other people per day increases, as does the probability that the person will get on a plane or train and travel to another city, whether for business or holiday.

Apologies, but the "social status improves hygiene and therefore reduces transmission rate" assumption is a wash. (pardon the pun).

It does change transmission *patterns*, though - Wealthier people tend to send the infection further afield each time they transmit it, whereas the poorest tend to transmit to their own families and neighbors in more than 60% of instances.

Fact is, from what I've read "the poor" don't begin to have any impact upon the geographic distribution of cases, until they start to flee the epidemic en mass.

Makes sense?
 Quoting: BattlesightZero


So the waves of the sick are coming. I wonder if countries will shot these people or let them in? I mean the poor infected refugees? I would not want to be a border guard now.
The Nihilist (OP)

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04/17/2014 10:56 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
are there any facts here, or more order of nine angels role playing doom for panties gear?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56883394


adieubanned02
pray_Italy

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04/17/2014 10:57 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
OP, no need to argue with me about this...... I just wanted to emphasize that as of NOW we lack further info about these presumed 40 cases......

Hopefully later today there will be some "regular" news outlet posting more stuff.... which I guess they would in case there's some truth to it.
IndigoMoon

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04/17/2014 10:58 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
are there any facts here, or more order of nine angels role playing doom for panties gear?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56883394


adieubanned02
 Quoting: The Nihilist


applause2
Live simply, love generously, care deeply, and speak kindly.
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass;
It's about learning how to dance in the rain.
The Nihilist (OP)

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04/17/2014 11:02 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
OP, no need to argue with me about this...... I just wanted to emphasize that as of NOW we lack further info about these presumed 40 cases......

Hopefully later today there will be some "regular" news outlet posting more stuff.... which I guess they would in case there's some truth to it.
 Quoting: pray_Italy


I miss read your post. I smoked something tonight and my brain is not all there. Anyways, this is the problem, who do we trust?
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2014 11:04 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
EBOLA CONTAINMENT LOST -- AFRICA INFECTION RATE UP 15% IN 24 HOURS; OUTBREAK ARRIVES IN PISA, ITALY!

April 17, 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT -- (TRN) -- The outbreak of Ebola Virus in seven west African countries has broken through all containment efforts and is spreading like wildfire. According to Christian Relief groups working in Guinea and Liberia, the number of confirmed infections jumped 15% in just the last 24 hours. In addition, 40 illegal alien migrant workers from the outbreak area, who came ashore in Pisa, Italy, are showing signs of Ebola infection and are being isolated in Pisa Italy because of fever and "conjunctivitis" (bloody around the eyes).

According to the World Health Organization, this strain of Ebola is entirely new and although it is close to the Zaire strain, it is different, thus accounting for false-negative test results . . . . . for weeks!


Read more... [link to www.turnerradionetwork.com]
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2014 11:16 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
In your model, is there a factor taking into account better hygiene outside Africa?

In other words, the transmissivity of the virus should be lower in the developed world.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 51906308


Yes, I established a baseline set of socio-economic statuses for western africa, and assumed that the socio-economic standards would be 1 quintile higher (on average) in the US and southern Europe, and 1.5 quintiles higher than baseline in northern Europe.

But the fact is that, as this "status" goes up, hygiene isn't the only factor which receives a boost - the number of typical "encounters" with other people per day increases, as does the probability that the person will get on a plane or train and travel to another city, whether for business or holiday.

Apologies, but the "social status improves hygiene and therefore reduces transmission rate" assumption is a wash. (pardon the pun).

It does change transmission *patterns*, though - Wealthier people tend to send the infection further afield each time they transmit it, whereas the poorest tend to transmit to their own families and neighbors in more than 60% of instances.

Fact is, from what I've read "the poor" don't begin to have any impact upon the geographic distribution of cases, until they start to flee the epidemic en mass.

Makes sense?
 Quoting: BattlesightZero


Well said. Keep us up to date with your forecasts.

Am I correct in thinking this strain is significantly more infectious than past Ebola outbreaks?

If so, can this be a likely natural mutation? Or more likely artificial?
BattlesightZero
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04/17/2014 11:20 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
are there any facts here, or more order of nine angels role playing doom for panties gear?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56883394


adieubanned02
 Quoting: The Nihilist


Good riddance...

atoast
BattlesightZero

YOU, and only YOU are responsible for maintaining the balance of power between you and the rest of the semi-sentient beings in this world. You cannot disclaim or delegate that responsibility; it is a function of being a living, breathing "adult" in this world. If you can't manage yourself on those terms, someone else *will* manage you on their terms. Your terms are irrelevant. Buy a rifle; prepare to defend yourself. If you don't, what happens is *your* fault. Period.
Anonymous Coward
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04/17/2014 11:32 PM
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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
OP, no need to argue with me about this...... I just wanted to emphasize that as of NOW we lack further info about these presumed 40 cases......

Hopefully later today there will be some "regular" news outlet posting more stuff.... which I guess they would in case there's some truth to it.
 Quoting: pray_Italy


I miss read your post. I smoked something tonight and my brain is not all there. Anyways, this is the problem, who do we trust?
 Quoting: The Nihilist


What would you estimate to be the daily infection increase of the virus at this point? 15%? 5%? 1%?
Zombie Daddy in a Box
And yes I am Crazy

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04/17/2014 11:32 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
EBOLA CONTAINMENT LOST -- AFRICA INFECTION RATE UP 15% IN 24 HOURS; OUTBREAK ARRIVES IN PISA, ITALY!

April 17, 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT -- (TRN) -- The outbreak of Ebola Virus in seven west African countries has broken through all containment efforts and is spreading like wildfire. According to Christian Relief groups working in Guinea and Liberia, the number of confirmed infections jumped 15% in just the last 24 hours. In addition, 40 illegal alien migrant workers from the outbreak area, who came ashore in Pisa, Italy, are showing signs of Ebola infection and are being isolated in Pisa Italy because of fever and "conjunctivitis" (bloody around the eyes).

According to the World Health Organization, this strain of Ebola is entirely new and although it is close to the Zaire strain, it is different, thus accounting for false-negative test results . . . . . for weeks!


Read more... [link to www.turnerradionetwork.com]
 Quoting: Interested Reader 2


peacehf Why do I get the Feeling TRN has been reading this Tread and just rewrote the Heading and condensed the
thread rofl and yes TRN is a alt. news site and is shady
at times.
It Is All Bull Shit I Tell You...

The New Leaders that lead us from SLAVERY to FREEDOM, Just end up becoming our NEW SLAVE MASTERS.

"STFU you brain dead fucker"-Desert Fox-MOD.
The Nihilist (OP)

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04/17/2014 11:33 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
I've been following this ebola story for a while, and reading the news from there over and over again. Man, now I know Guinea better than Canada. Anyways, what's funny is the growing social tension. I wouldn't bet against some form of civil conflict, for many different reasons. Imagine there was a civil war while an Ebola outbreak was happening.


Conakry: The death of an old creates tension in north Entag

Led force, the old Soumahoro threw a fit Thursday morning, before giving up the ghost a few hours again later to Donka National Hospital. Upon learning of the death of the old, youth anger looted and burned the house of Mr. Diallo old former boss. For them, it would tacitly responsible for the death of the deceased. At last, calm has returned to the scene. But the family of Mr. Diallo still refuge with one of the leaders in the area. We will return.



[link to translate.googleusercontent.com]
Zombie Daddy in a Box
And yes I am Crazy

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04/17/2014 11:38 PM

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Re: Ebola/MERS***Latest>>>US says no Ebola-related travel restrictions for Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra Leone!!!pg 316
WOW I know this is Ebola Thread but get this about MERS

Ian M Mackay, PhD ‏@MackayIM · 5m
A sane voice. MT "@FluTrackers: # Saudi “can also spread through direct contact with infected camels,” [link to www.flutrackers.com] … #MERS ك


I read also that Ebola can be carried by Dogs also.

Ian M Mackay, PhD ‏@MackayIM · Apr 10
@FrancescaIT01 Study suggests that dogs *can* be infected by Zaire ebolavirus (or something similar). #evd #ebola
[link to wwwnc.cdc.gov] …

Last Edited by Zombie Daddy in a Box on 04/17/2014 11:41 PM
It Is All Bull Shit I Tell You...

The New Leaders that lead us from SLAVERY to FREEDOM, Just end up becoming our NEW SLAVE MASTERS.

"STFU you brain dead fucker"-Desert Fox-MOD.

News








We're dropping truth bombs like it's the end of days!