>>>EBOLA 2014-15 >> Latest News and Updates for MERS, Ebola and other spreading nasties<<<

do not worry, we will give Italy the benefit of doubt...not on the list tonight!

Yeah, but all the black muslim "refugees" headed towards Britain, the Netherlands, and Sweden cross from Tunisia into Italy or Morocco into Spain. Therefore any outbreak in Morocco or Tunisia is a real and immediate threat to Europe as a whole... and I'm reasonably sure that both of those countries are already harboring cases.

In your model, is there a factor taking into account better hygiene outside Africa?

In other words, the transmissivity of the virus should be lower in the developed world.

In your model, is there a factor taking into account better hygiene outside Africa?

In other words, the transmissivity of the virus should be lower in the developed world

Retweeted by Ian M Mackay, PhD


Helen Branswell &#8207;@HelenBranswell · 8h
Is this possible? Looks like the health-care work in the UAE who died of #MERS last week infected 14 others. Is that so, @WHO @HaertlG


so much for hygiene when a health work infects 14 people
with MERS.

I'm 100% with you. I just don't want to argue with an Italian tonight. Oh, and MERS is getting mental.



The government's efforts to shut down media reports on MERS have evidently not lasted long. Via Arab News: Concern over rising MERS. The full report:


Dr. Mohammed Ali, an internist at Al-Abeer Medical Group, advised people to keep away from crowded areas and undergo medical tests in case of high fever and coughing.

“It is advisable to use masks,” he told Arab News adding that people should observe hygiene and maintain cleanliness to avoid the virus.



[link to crofsblogs.typepad.com]

Corona Virinae &#8207;@Coronavirinae · Apr 16
#Coronavirus news: Philippines reports first case of MERS coronavirus



Retweeted by Ian M Mackay, PhD


FluTrackers.com &#8207;@FluTrackers · 8m
#UAE Paramedics #Coronavirus Cluster- Total after today's @WHO update =16, incl. 1 case exported to Philippines [link to www.flutrackers.com] … #MERS

Random - but I'm watching Scandal. *Spoiler Alert*

Story line has someone dying from a meningitis infection traced to a strain that is kept under lock and key in Ft. De.tric(sp?), a vial had gone missing.

Good grief.

Yes, I established a baseline set of socio-economic statuses for western africa, and assumed that the socio-economic standards would be 1 quintile higher (on average) in the US and southern Europe, and 1.5 quintiles higher than baseline in northern Europe.

But the fact is that, as this "status" goes up, hygiene isn't the only factor which receives a boost - the number of typical "encounters" with other people per day increases, as does the probability that the person will get on a plane or train and travel to another city, whether for business or holiday.

Apologies, but the "social status improves hygiene and therefore reduces transmission rate" assumption is a wash. (pardon the pun).

It does change transmission *patterns*, though - Wealthier people tend to send the infection further afield each time they transmit it, whereas the poorest tend to transmit to their own families and neighbors in more than 60% of instances.

Fact is, from what I've read "the poor" don't begin to have any impact upon the geographic distribution of cases, until they start to flee the epidemic en mass.

Makes sense?

Last Edited by BattlesightZero on 04/17/2014 10:44 PM

Thank you for trying at least. God Bless you!

me too.

[link to www.afro.who.int]

Unless the WHO is complicit (and who knows, they may be - pun intended) then Guinea outbreak numbers will continue to be reported on and updated at this website. If WHO stops updating then assume the very worst is occurring.

My intuition, nothing more, leads me to worry about spread to China and Japan, and we won't know about it until after the fat lady has sung.

are there any facts here, or more order of nine angels role playing doom for panties gear?

So the waves of the sick are coming. I wonder if countries will shot these people or let them in? I mean the poor infected refugees? I would not want to be a border guard now.

adieu

OP, no need to argue with me about this...... I just wanted to emphasize that as of NOW we lack further info about these presumed 40 cases......

Hopefully later today there will be some "regular" news outlet posting more stuff.... which I guess they would in case there's some truth to it.

I miss read your post. I smoked something tonight and my brain is not all there. Anyways, this is the problem, who do we trust?

EBOLA CONTAINMENT LOST -- AFRICA INFECTION RATE UP 15% IN 24 HOURS; OUTBREAK ARRIVES IN PISA, ITALY!

April 17, 2014 @ 10:03 PM EDT -- (TRN) -- The outbreak of Ebola Virus in seven west African countries has broken through all containment efforts and is spreading like wildfire. According to Christian Relief groups working in Guinea and Liberia, the number of confirmed infections jumped 15% in just the last 24 hours. In addition, 40 illegal alien migrant workers from the outbreak area, who came ashore in Pisa, Italy, are showing signs of Ebola infection and are being isolated in Pisa Italy because of fever and "conjunctivitis" (bloody around the eyes).

According to the World Health Organization, this strain of Ebola is entirely new and although it is close to the Zaire strain, it is different, thus accounting for false-negative test results . . . . . for weeks!


Read more... [link to www.turnerradionetwork.com]

Well said. Keep us up to date with your forecasts.

Am I correct in thinking this strain is significantly more infectious than past Ebola outbreaks?

If so, can this be a likely natural mutation? Or more likely artificial?

Good riddance...

What would you estimate to be the daily infection increase of the virus at this point? 15%? 5%? 1%?

Why do I get the Feeling TRN has been reading this Tread and just rewrote the Heading and condensed the
thread and yes TRN is a alt. news site and is shady
at times.

I've been following this ebola story for a while, and reading the news from there over and over again. Man, now I know Guinea better than Canada. Anyways, what's funny is the growing social tension. I wouldn't bet against some form of civil conflict, for many different reasons. Imagine there was a civil war while an Ebola outbreak was happening.


Conakry: The death of an old creates tension in north Entag

Led force, the old Soumahoro threw a fit Thursday morning, before giving up the ghost a few hours again later to Donka National Hospital. Upon learning of the death of the old, youth anger looted and burned the house of Mr. Diallo old former boss. For them, it would tacitly responsible for the death of the deceased. At last, calm has returned to the scene. But the family of Mr. Diallo still refuge with one of the leaders in the area. We will return.



[link to translate.googleusercontent.com]

WOW I know this is Ebola Thread but get this about MERS

Ian M Mackay, PhD &#8207;@MackayIM · 5m
A sane voice. MT "@FluTrackers: # Saudi “can also spread through direct contact with infected camels,” [link to www.flutrackers.com] … #MERS &#1603;


I read also that Ebola can be carried by Dogs also.

Ian M Mackay, PhD &#8207;@MackayIM · Apr 10
@FrancescaIT01 Study suggests that dogs *can* be infected by Zaire ebolavirus (or something similar). #evd #ebola
[link to wwwnc.cdc.gov] …

[link to www.afro.who.int]

Afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programs/dpc/epidemic-a-pandemic-a​lert-and-response/outbreak-news/4100-Ebola-virus-disease-west​-Africa-16-april a-2014.html

there is a MERS thread, we need to bump it.

Ebola: 190 suspected/confirmed cases, 120 deaths, as of April 16, 2014

Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea — Preliminary Report

[link to www.nejm.org]


UNICEF-Liberia
Ebola Virus Disease: SitRep #16
16 April 2014

Key Points

&#61623; One additional suspected case of Ebola was reported in Saclapea, Nimba County, raising the total
number of suspected, probable and confirmed Ebola cases to 27, including 13 Ebola-related deaths,
for a case fatality rate of 48%.
&#61623; The total number of confirmed Ebola cases stands at six.
&#61623; Foya, Lofa County, remains the epicentre of the Ebola outbreak. However, suspected, probable and
confirmed Ebola cases have been reported in Lofa (10), Margibi (6), Bong (5), Nimba (4), Montserrado
(1) and Grand Cape Mount (1) Counties.
&#61623; The National Reference Lab tested its first Ebola sample yesterday.
&#61623; UNICEF deployed two field coordinators and a 10 person team specialized in interpersonal
communications to Lofa County, where they will work with communities to increase awareness of Ebola.
&#61623; With logistical support from Samaritan’s Purse, UNICEF air-lifted urgently needed tarps, sprayers,
chlorine and other supplies to Lofa County, for use in completing the isolation unit at Foya Hospital.
The agency will air-lift additional supplies later this week.
&#61623; UNICEF’s estimated funding requirement for Ebola-related C4D, Health and WASH interventions
currently stands at approximately US$500,000 for the period from 21 March to 21 June. The estimated
funding gap is US$370,000.

Situation Overview

&#61623; Since 14 April, the total number of suspected, probable and confirmed cases of Ebola has risen to 27
while total Ebola-related deaths remains steady at 13.
1
The case fatality rate is 48%. The additional
(suspected) case was identified in Saclapea, Nimba County.
&#61623; The total confirmed Ebola cases stands at six.
&#61623; To date, suspected, probable and confirmed Ebola cases have been reported in Lofa (10), Margibi (6),
Bong (5), Nimba (4), Montserrado (1) and Grand Cape Mount (1) Counties.
&#61623; Lofa County remains the epicentre of the Ebola outbreak, particularly Foya District. Lofa is also the
county with the highest numbers of reported suspected, probable and confirmed Ebola cases (10) and
Ebola-related deaths (9). All six of the confirmed Ebola cases also originated in Lofa, though two of
these patients travelled to Margibi County after contracting the virus.
&#61623; The National Reference Lab (NRL)2
in Margibi County ran its first test on a sample collected in-country.
The sample, which came from Margibi County, tested negative for Ebola. The NRL Ebola testing facility
is expected to be commissioned today by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MoHSW). Its
operations will significantly increase the speed at which Ebola samples can be tested, which will in turn
improve data on suspected, probable and confirmed cases.
&#61623; The MoHSW has revised the Terms of Reference for the National Task Force (NTF) on Health
Emergencies and has redefined its component committees to include: Coordination, Logistics (which
is also in charge of information sharing), Case Management, Epidemiology and Laboratory, Social
Mobilization and Psychosocial Support.
...

More than anything I'm watching Conakry

1. 47 cases now, and they said it was traced to one family via a funeral, now there are 47 cases. Perhaps some have been brought in from outside, but 47 cases gives me concern.

2. Majority of population doesn't have running water, sewers, or electricity. Should give us idea of how contagious this new strain is rather quickly. 7-10 days should tell?

3. Social media in Conakry can't keep it under wraps, if there is a serious problem.

On the inability of the Authorities to keep an epidemic quiet...

The average American knows approximately 600 people. If word of mouth is confined to your acquaintance's acquaintances, or two degrees of separation, this is a group of 600*600 people, or 360,000 individuals.

Assuming a uniform distribution of sick people across these social circles, it would take a little over 800 infected in America to spread word of an epidemic.

This would assume the authorities would have complete control of all media, including the independent sector.

Let's assume you only have 50 acquaintances on speaking terms, and they each have 50...

There would have to be at least 120,000 sick for you to hear about it through the grapevine, two degrees away.