Excerpt from today's day 4-8 SPC convective outlook...
STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS... AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO... WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEASONABLY MOIST RETURN FLOW. AND THE MODEST NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW PROBABLY WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... PERHAPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUT CERTAINTY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA.